I want to add to the analysis of the proposed California Republican power grab initiative. Should it pass, we could lose about 19 of California’s 55 electoral college votes to the Rep candidate.
If the initiative qualifies for the June 2008 California primary election, we will of course fight it tooth and nail. But all is not lost if it passes. We can still win in 2008 in a landslide. We don’t have to have Rep Presidents forever. However, we must nominate a candidate that can win in solid Red states – and the best candidate for that task is Bill Richardson.
Generating support from outside the Democratic base is critical to taking the White House. The Presidential election of 2004 demonstrated the fallacy of the argument that all Democrats need to do is line up behind a candidate, generate a massive turnout and victory will be ours.
John Kerry received more votes than any other Democratic candidate for President in history, yet he still lost. On the other hand, as we saw in the 2006 Congressional elections, when Democrats attract votes from Republicans and Independents, Democrats win.
If the Rep power grab initiative passes in California next year, it becomes imperative that we not nominate another Northern liberal like Clinton or Obama. Forget the meaningless presidential match up polls more than a year before the election. They are just based on national name recognition at this point. Northern liberal Democrats don’t carry solidly Red states. The White House will be lost if the Rep aren’t challenged in the South, Southwest, Rocky Mountain and Western states, and that is guaranteed if the Rep power grab initiative passes in California.
The candidate I’m supporting is Bill Richardson. More than John Edwards, because of Richardson’s Latino heritage and Western values as well as economic policies and stance on 2nd Amendment issues, Richardson is the ideal candidates for Dem to take Red states regardless of what happens in California.
New Mexico politics mirrors the partisan split in America today. In the last two Presidential elections, the outcome of the vote in New Mexico was decided by less than 1% of the ballots cast.
Richardson has been the most successful governor at the ballot box in New Mexico history. In a state evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, Richardson won his first term in office by a 56 to 39 percent margin.
Four years later, when the campaign issue was his leadership and performance, Richardson was re-elected by an incredible 68 to 32 percent vote – more than twice his margin of victory in 2002. Forty percent of the Republicans that went to the polls in New Mexico last November voted for Richardson.
With Richardson at the head of the Democratic ticket, no longer would the fate of the Democratic candidate rise or fall on the outcome of one state. We would start with the same states carried by Senator Kerry in 2004.
Latinos who voted for Bush in 2004 would largely return to the Democratic Party. Independents would also favor Richardson. We already are seeing this. In the latest ARG poll for Iowa , Richardson, among Independents that lean Democratic, is leading the Democratic field:
Biden 3%
Clinton 18%
Dodd 3%
Edwards 8%
Kucinich 5%
Obama 21%
Richardson 25%
Undecided 17%
Add in his Western values, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona would become blue states. That brings 29 electoral votes to the Dems, more than compensating for the lost electoral votes in California if the Rep power grab initiative passes but not enough to win the White House (assuming we carry all states Kerry won in 2004).
Florida with 27 electoral votes could make the difference. With Richardson as the nominee it could easily turn blue. Adam Smith, one of the top political commentator in Florida, described earlier this year Richardson’s appeal in the state.
I defy anyone to name a Democrat better equipped to take Florida than New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
Think of it: a tax-cutting, NRA-supported progressive Democrat who can make a strong case in the conservative Panhandle; and the first Latino presidential nominee sure to energize the crucial Hispanic vote in South Florida and Central Florida.
For Central Florida’s crucial swing voters disillusioned by what they’ve seen with Iraq and Katrina, the two-term red- state governor, former U.N. ambassador, and U.S. energy secretary can sell competence. Nobody on either side is as experienced and tested on the key issues of the day – foreign policy, energy independence and economic growth.
What Smith wrote would apply in other Southern states, in particular Texas. With 34 electoral votes, Texas is to Reps what California is to Dems. Kerry lost Texas by 23 points in 2004. The last time the Dems took Texas was Carter in 1976.
Today though, Democrats have been winning in local races in Texas. Again with Richardson’s Western values and Latino heritage, he will have great appeal in Texas and could take the state.
How electable a Presidential candidate is should be taken into consideration, and all factors need to be considered including the possibility the California Rep power grab initiative could pass. Moreover, electability should not be viewed solely from the viewpoint of the Presidential race.
To achieve true health care reform, an aggressive plan attacking global warming and other policy initiatives that require Congressional approval, we must support a Democratic candidate that can assist down ticket Democrats win.
Richardson is the one Democratic candidate for President that has repeatedly shown an ability to attract support from Independents and Republicans. That will propel him to victory in November 2008, as well as lead to landslide victories for Dem candidates for the House and Senate nationwide.
