State Legislature Picture – One Week Out

As Brian hit earlier today, these are tough times for the California Yacht Party.  There are competitive races in the state Legislature, in particular the Assembly, in over 30% of the seats currently held by Republicans.  Democratic allies are obviously feeling excited about these races as well, as the independent expenditures have jumped.  Here’s my list of the top races in order of likelihood of a flip:

ASSEMBLY:

1) AD-80. Manuel Perez (D) is poised for victory in this Palm Springs-area seat.  The polls have shown double-digit leads.  LIKELY DEM.

2) AD-78.  Marty Block (D), the recipient of a lot of that largesse from the IE’s, is not in an easy race with Republican John McCann (not McCain) by any stretch.  The ads have been tough on both sides and the California Dental Association is unusually interested in knocking off Block.  But it’s a Democratic year and the top of the ticket should help him.  LEAN DEM.

3) AD-15.  The big news here is that Ed Chavez, the Republican mayor of Stockton, endorsed Joan Buchanan for this seat.  Chavez is a moderate and a former Democrat, but an endorsement like this in one of the bigger cities in the district is helpful.  Buchanan looks strong.  LEAN DEM.

4) AD-10.  Calitics Match candidate Alyson Huber has her very first ad on the air, attacking her opponent Jack Sieglock for being a “career politician.”  It’s funny, too (although I think everyone has to stop with the I’m a Mac/I’m a PC parodies).  The response from the Sieglock camp has been to call Huber a carpetbagger, but considering she’s lived in the area and went to college there before transferring to Cornell, that hit doesn’t make a lot of sense.  Unions are spending big up here.  I think this one goes late into Election Night.  TOSS UP.

5) AD-26.  Jack O’Connell just endorsed John Eisenhut, and the state Democratic Party obviously has some numbers it likes – they just poured $300,000 into the race.  There’s going to be a major flooding of the district with cash in the final week, and Eisenhut has a 5:1 cash-on-hand advantage.  I really think this one is close, with Bill Berryhill slightly favored.  SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

6) AD-36.  It really would be incredible to pull off this race.  A Democrat has not represented Palmdale in this seat since 1974.  But Linda Jones has a real chance to pull this off.  Republican Steve Knight is an LAPD officer and he’s still favored, but I’m hoping against hope.  This is the tipping point race.  LEAN REPUBLICAN.

7) AD-37.  Ferial Masry’s third try to unseat Audra Strickland (R) is getting a lot of residual help in this race from the hotly contested Senate contest in SD-19 between Tony Strickland.  I don’t see a lot of people voting for one Strickland and not the other, so it’s even more helpful in this case.  Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star thinks the race is tightening – he’s seen Strickland release several mailers and the Democratic Party play a bit on Masry’s behalf.  Alberto Torrico and Karen Bass have been in the district.  This is a sleeper.  LEAN REPUBLICAN.

8) AD-02.  The only reason this is up there is because the guy the Republicans put up may not live in the district.

A claim that Republican Assembly candidate Jim Nielsen doesn’t live in the district in which he’s running has apparently led the secretary of state’s office to refer the case for prosecution.

Complainant Barry Clausen of Redding received a letter from the state office, dated Tuesday. The one-page notice says it has concluded its investigation against Nielsen and referred the case for prosecution to the state attorney general’s office.

Going to the AG’s office is pretty far down the road.  Paul Singh might just back into this race.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

9) AD-59. Anthony Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle.  But Bill Postmus’ explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Donald Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile.  This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

10) AD-66.  There’s still the idea that Grey Frandsen can steal this seat for the Democrats, and while it’s unlikely against incumbent Kevin Jeffries, The local Inland Empire paper has kept an eye on this race.  It’s not out of the realm of possibility.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

AD-63 and AD-65 have potential as well, but this time I think they’re SAFE.

SENATE:

1) SD-19.  This is just an epic battle with loads of cash on both sides, mainly because it’s the only seat worth playing in for the State Senate.  The Ventura County Star endorsed Hannah-Beth Jackson over Tony Strickland, and she used some humor to mock Strickland’s endless attack mailers.  It’s going to be a long night waiting for this one in Ventura and Santa Barbara County. TOSS-UP.

T. Boone Pickens Dumps Nearly $19 Million into Yes on 10 Campaign

For the purposes of full disclosure again (I posted a message a few weeks back), I work for a non-profit consumer rights organization called the Consumer Federation of California. We are currently doing everything we can to defeat the “reprehensible scam” being perpetrated on California voters under the guise of Proposition 10.

So yes, I’m going to post this on other sites and forums because we are being outspent by Pickens and his fossil fuel corporate funders by over 100 to 1 in this campaign, and our ability to get the word out is limited. And yes, I will try and check back in this time to participate in any discussions this post might generate.

Now to the issue at hand: Has our ballot measure process been totally corrupted by big money interests? That’s the question we’re asking ourselves in the No on 10 campaign, as we saw oil tycoon and former swift boat funder T. Boone Pickens dump ANOTHER $4 million into the  Prop 10 campaign coffers last week. According to state records, Clean Energy Fuels Corporation (Pickens natural gas company) has now pumped nearly $19 million into this corporate greenwash, while we on No on 10 side has raised about $150,000.

Clean Energy Fuels is a small company that loses money every year. How can it afford to lavish $19 million on a ballot measure? The answer is simple: Instead of investing in research and development, Mr. Pickens’ Clean Energy is investing in buying an election. This massive political spending by a small company is proof that passage of Proposition 10 would be a bonanza for Mr. Pickens.

The central program in Prop 10 is a $2.5 billion giveaway to trucking companies to subsidize purchases of natural gas-fueled trucks. Trucks that qualify for rebates under Prop 10 are permitted to emit air pollution at levels identical to petroleum or diesel-fueled trucks. It is estimated that Prop 10 will increase natural gas vehicle sales in California by 500%. Most trucks subsidized by Prop 10 will fill up at Mr. Pickens’ gas stations.

Prop 10 EPITOMIZES how big money is distorting the political debate in this country to favor corporate interests over the public interest. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a blatant attempt by ONE CORPORATION seeking to enrich itself by bankrolling a ballot measure specifically geared to do this. As blatant and egregious as this scam is, we have had great difficulty to get the media interested in exposing this fraud – both in terms of Pickens the man, and Proposition 10 the measure.

Granted, every major environmental group in the state is opposed to it, as is every newspaper editorial board (I believe it’s somewhere around 34 editorials against, and 0 in support). Similarly, just about every known organization, from the far left to the far right has also recommended a “No” vote. In fact, the Yes side has NO organizational backing AT ALL!

So I guess the real question on November 4th is how will all this grassroots opposition compare to the over $20 million (so far…much more assuredly to come) being spent by the “Yes” side on all those slick and deceptive television and radio ads? It’s hard to turn the TV on without seeing a Yes on 10 ad claiming this $10 billion boondoggle will solve global warming and end our dependence on foreign oil

And just a reminder as to who Pickens really is and what motivates him: he’s not the friendly old renewable energy convert depicted in his “Pickens Plan” ads. In fact, the Huffington Post reported today that Pickens may even be selling off his wind turbines.  This is the man that was the primary funder of the false and slanderous attack ads against John Kerry by the Swift Boat Veterans of Truth in 2004 and who has an egregious legacy on the environment, and a long track record of conning communities and local governments into deals that benefit Pickens at the expense of the public. In fact, Pickens just said in an interview on 60 Minutes he has no regrets over the swift boat ads.  Now he’s set his sights on the natural gas market…and he’s using Prop 10 to do it.

So that’s I’m posting today, in hopes that we can both ignite a dialogue on the corrosive role of corporate money on the democratic process as well as convince everyone that is yet undecided to vote No on Prop 10.

We’re asking that everyone check out our No on 10 website www.noonproposition10.org and share it with as many people as you can and hyperlink it to your blogs or websites if possible. And if there are any good ideas out there as to how to reform the ballot measure process I’d love to hear those too.  

Stay for Change Video from California and Nevada Young Dems

Hey, at least I know somebody’s listening. Mad Props out to the presidents of California and Nevada Young Democrats, Rocky Fernandez and Heather Brown respectively.  The two presidents focus on the culture warrior issues on the ballot, Props 4 and 8. Both of these propositions are in danger of passing, but we can work to make sure that these horrible things go down in flames.

So, Stay for Change!

Volunteer for Prop 4 here and for Prop 8 here or go here to find the No on 8 Field Offices.  The CDP is also doing work against 4 and 8, sign up here or find the field offices here.

Not So Strange Bedfellows: Blackwater and Yes on 8

Andrew Sullivan notes today that one of the biggest financial supporters of the Yes on 8 campaign is Elsa Prince Broekhuizen, who has pumped $450,000 into the campaign. Broekhuizen is the mother of Blackwater founder and owner Erik Prince and Bush Pioneer Betsy DeVos. She’s also quite the patron of the religious right.

At first blush, the two groups don’t have a whole lot in common besides neighboring real estate in the political spectrum. But as Blackwater continues its unwanted presence in San Diego (spawning aspirants to the throne in Hemet), Michigan resident Broekhuizen is just a big fish in the flood of out-of-state money trying to buy their way into a change to California’s constitution.

This particularly hits San Diego as the repeated recipient of unwanted outside attention. San Diego was targeted by the national GOP as a test case for turning urban areas Republican which led to the destruction of an entire progressive generation in San Diego. We’ve been battling against Blackwater’s presence and a disinterested city government for two years. And in concert with the, erm, disconcerting video on the right, The Call will be welcoming to to 100,000 peopleto Qualcomm Stadium on Saturday for “[c]orporate prayer and fasting for the protection of traditional marriage and the soul of our nation.” I’ll be there so you don’t have to be.

Look, Dave is right: This is about harming same-sex couples. But the other long-term implications are starting to show themselves. The Republican Party musters its national resources to turn San Diego red and succeeds for a full generation.

Blackwater decides to take your tax dollars- laundered through the Bush Administration, the Iraq War and the privatization of the military- and force its way into California while expanding and diversifying its portfolio to include a private navy and security contracts for Latin American governments.

And now the same national big money forces of the religious right- whether it’s the Mormon Church or Erik Prince’s mother, this has the potential to turn into a disturbing trend. That the extreme right wing of this country can nationalize an issue and force its will on California. If this keeps working, I don’t want to contemplate what’ll come next.

There’s one week to go. You can contribute to the No on 8 campaign through Equality For All at the Calitics ActBlue page and help push Equality For All past $1 million raised on ActBlue. And you can get involved through the No on Prop 8 website. For example, I know during Saturday’s “The Call” event, there are plans for doing real calling in San Diego and throughout the state.

full disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign

Update: SteveAudio hit this point last night as well

Proposition 10 Blasted by Proposition 10 Actor….Ooppps

Remember how the little girl from Hillary’s 3AM ad turned out to have grown into a young woman who was working her ass off for Obama? Well, there is now a California version. The girl from the Yes on Proposition 10 ads has a simply devastating response ad blasting the initiative.

She goes through it all. How the Sierra Club and every major environment group oppose Proposition 10. How the League of Women Voters says Proposition 10 misspends $10,000,000,000. How the Chair of the Air Resources Board says Proposition 10 increases global warming. And bonus points for pointing out how the wasted money will probably go out of state.

No wonder a Texas oilman has dumped $19 million into the Yes campaign — it is but a small investment. Vote no on Proposition 10.

You want competitive races? You’ve got them.

For years, some Very Serious People have been complaining about how there aren’t enough competitive races.  And so, the Republicans thought, yeah, we’d like more competitive districts because we’re getting our butts kicked in the ones we helped draw after the 2000 census.  The goo-goo groups (good government) saw a chance to get some additional street cred and, more importantly, additional leverage.

I’ve got plenty of respect for the League of Women Voters and Common Cause, but they have the most power when there are a bunch of moderates in the legislature. I know, they would never think that they are, in fact, an interest group in their own right, but, folks they are. They are a special interest just like any other.  They do what maximizes their own interests.

Arnold then saw an opportunity in Prop 11, he could also expand his own power and gravitas. Arnold was able to cobble a semi-respectable coalition for the proposition including a few more Republicans and a few poorly informed Democrats. (Bob Hertzberg? Really, dude? You drew the damn maps that they are so upset about.) They then got all the Very Serious People aboard with a somewhat specious argument that Prop 11 would bring in more moderates and make elections more competitive.

The problem with all of this? We didn’t actually need any of this for competive elections.  They are here, up close in person in 2008.  I suppose the trouble is that the Very Serious People weren’t expecting all these Republican seats to become competitive.  You see, they wanted the Democratic seats to become competitive too (or in the case of some, the Democratic seats only).  But, like it or not, competition is here:

Democrats will have a rare opportunity in next week’s general election to capture a few seats in the state Legislature, which would help them inch toward a two-thirds majority, a vote threshold needed to approve a state budget or a tax measure.

State legislative seats switching hands between parties is extremely rare in California – it hasn’t happened since the legislative district lines were redrawn in the beginning of the decade. Democrats are hoping to buck that trend with increased Democratic voter registration fueled by the popularity of presidential hopeful Barack Obama. (SF Chron 10/28/08)

Never mind that Matthew Yi chose to acknowledge only three seats Democrats can take from Republicans, ignoring AD-26, AD-15 notably.  The long and short of it is that these competitive races undermine the entire argument for Prop 11, that only a different mapping system can provide competitive elections. Nope, not true, and Prop 11 couldn’t even do anything to actually create any competitive districts.

Prop 11 is a phony solution in search of a phony problem. Vote No, we don’t need to give Republicans additional power to satisfy these Very Serious People.

(CA-SD-33)Please Help Us rid the Ca Legislature of one of its Wingnutiest

Gary Paul Pritchard is a 37 year old teacher at a Community College in South LA, Cerritos Community College to be exact.  He is a tenured Professor in their Fine Arts Department, music to be more specific.  In 2006, Gary finally finished his Ph.D. in 2006, which allowed us to also purchase our first home here in South Orange County.

Gary has been the chair of his department and he recently got a grant for the Fine Arts Division, a very important grant that I think shows what an amazing legislator he has the possibility to be.

When the grant was first proposed the prior year it was rejected.  The Chair of the Fine Arts Department asked Gary to come aboard and help rewrite the grant.  He was happy to do so and this year in June, the grant was fully funded.  So what is the grant for?

Job training.  Yes, it is to help train those students who didn’t graduate from high school and have no plans to go further in their education in stage craft.  South LA is obviously very close to Hollywood and there are many jobs of this kind in the area.  The program is also working with local employers such as Disneyland.  Gary is actually walking the walk so to say.

Now the 33rd district in California is huge.  It is bigger than any of the Congressional districts in Orange County and covers over 500,000 registered voters.  The registration layout is quite discouraging as well for any Democratic candidate and it’s the reason it is so difficult to get Democrats to run in Orange County.  It is an uphill battle as they say.

So, 29% of those registered voters are Democratic, 48% Republican and 19% Declined to State.  Yes, it’s that bad.  But if Democrats don’t run then how can Democrats win?  We have to run in every seat possible, it’s how we build the party even in the very red districts like the 33rd.

Orange County is home of many of the obstructionist legislators that helped create the gridlock that happens every year when we enter budget time.  In California you must have 2/3’ds in order to raise any taxes or pass any budget.  The Republicans in Orange County see themselves as conservative warriors that battle back the wasteful spending of all those evil liberals in Sacramento.  No, really, they do.

Meet Mimi Walters, “The Taxpayer’s Hero”.  Mimi Walters handily won the primary in June and it’s thought that her trip to the Senate is guaranteed.  Some even call her “Senator-Elect” and talk about how she’s moving on up from the Assembly to the State Senate in January.  

Poor, lonely Mimi Walters.  I’ve done some research on Ms. Walters legislative record and found that in 137 votes she only voted yes five times.  FIVE TIMES.  And according to the Sacramento Bee, Mimi Walters was one of the most ineffective legislators they have.

Number crunch: The 2008 legislative year in numbers

Who passed the most bills? Who had the most vetoes? Which GOP lawmaker finished with the most new laws? Who didn’t pass anything.

We’ve got the skinny.

Fewest bills signed into law

0 – Assemblywoman Audra Strickland (R)

0 – Sen. Tom McClintock (R)

0 – Sen. Ed Vincent (D)

1 – Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D)

1 – Assemblywoman Mimi Walters (R)

Sacramento Bee

This is why we have to run in every race, we have to challenge every Republican seat that is taken for granted because we have to challenge their ideas on the issues.  Mimi Walters blames many of our budget woes on Illegal Immigrants and high taxes.  But just like John McCain, Republicans fail to mention that just because our taxes on Corporations are high in the State doesn’t mean that those taxes are paid.  

And of course the second question is, if you hate Government so much, if you think that it is so ineffectual and useless, then why do you want so much to work in Government?  Why?  Why not stay in the private sector and do what you think you do best?

Here is a clip of Mimi Walter’s speaking to the CRA.  I think it says it all.

The odds are that Mimi Walters will win this seat.  We know the reality of the situation but Gary still chose to run and to work hard.  He has walked almost every weekend since May of this year.  Gary has been putting up his own signs for the last week, sometimes getting up as early as 3am in the morning (As told in my Diary, Three AM Phone call? Not Quite…).  Gary is working as hard as any full time employee with a five year can (Gary also volunteers in Charlotte’s classroom on Wednesday mornings!).

Daily Kos has really come through for this campaign in the generous donations that helped us pay for Gary’s ballot Statement.  But when Mimi Walters didn’t buy her ballot statement it left us holding the other half of the bill, which is $7,400!  

So, I’m back again asking for your support, Gary needs it and I know we are all stretched.  Friday we got the new coupon book for Gary’s student loans, the payment has gone up $250 at a time when we can least afford it.  I haven’t been able to cut my hours at work (Which would be helpful since I’ve been diagnosed with a chronic condition) because we are making ends meet, barely, as it is.  We understand that people are hurting, we are one of those families who have lost a tremendous amount of their equity in their home.  It’s an endless list isn’t it?  But I also know we are blessed in having two stable jobs, a roof over our head and a beautiful, healthy five year old to care for, it’s just how you look at it.  We see ourselves as one of the lucky ones.

Here is Gary’s Act Blue page.  If you can spare a few dollars it could add up here fast at Daily Kos.  Thank you.

Some other diaries I’ve written about Gary’s campaign:

Berry Gordy, MLK Jr. and Barack Obama

Please Help my Candidate, my Husband, stand up for Democrats in Orange County, CA

Candidate’s Wife, My husband’s letter to NARAL

Pat Buchanan and Gary Pritchard, Native American running for State Senate

Some photos…

One of Gary’s signs!

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Charlotte and Gary…

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Gary bringing a box of food to the Orange County Employee Association’s food drive this summer.

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The Myth of Free Markets: Even Greenspan Sees the Light

Not unexpectedly, it required a major disaster to awaken former Federal Chairman, Alan Greenspan, to the long overdue reality that the free-market, free enterprise economic model fails to trickle down wealth to the poor and near poor but concentrates wealth at the top.

The free market model or Neoliberalism was developed by Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman at the Chicago School of Economics Chicago where it became an axiom that the private sector was the key to long-term economic stability.  Neoliberalism has gradually become the prevailing economic conventional wisdom in the United States and has been foisted on most countries through pressure from the United States or through the IMF and World Bank, America’s secret instrument of exploitation.

Simply stated, free-markets, a system with as little government interference as possible in the operation of market mechanisms, have been allowed to operate with increasing privatization and deregulation and a minimum of government transfers.  In theory, when free-market economics operates at peak efficiency, the so-called fabled “invisible hand”, coined by Adam Smith, was empowered to distribute wealth to all deserving citizens.  The theory of the “invisible hand” must be one of the most distorted ideas in the history of economics.  Adam Smith did not mean nor imply that people should be deserted by the government to fend for themselves but rather that all peoples’ needs must be met.

The deregulation of the banking system and the privatization of the Federal Reserve in 1913 are at the root of the current financial crisis and have paved the way for unfettered greed  to trigger the virtual collapse of that system.  The collapse spells the end of any credibility for the notion that by investing wealth at the top it will automatically reach the bottom.

Managing the money supply, interest rates, and exchange rates, or the monetary system, is a vital function in the economy and should serve the public interest in a democratic society.  Since it is privately owned, the Federal Reserve is almost entirely independent of the government consisting of twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks located in major U.S. cities in twelve regions and organized in a similar fashion to private banks whose shareholders consist of private banks in each district.

As well, funding for the Federal Reserve System is independent of the government and depends on interest earnings on its portfolio of investments.  Its decisions do not need to be ratified by either the president or Congress.

Instead of protecting consumers in recent years, the Federal Reserve has adopted policies that have supported large financial institutions in their frenzied, greedy pursuit of wealth ultimately pulling the rug out from under the economy.  While deregulated financial institutions were offering mortgages at initially low interest rates to high risk borrowers, the Federal Reserve was expanding the money supply and lowering interest rates to facilitate this feeding frenzy.  Eager homebuyers flocked to their nearest bank to borrow money at the ostensibly bargain basement interest rates and without the need to meet stiff credit requirements.  Mortgage-debt in 2000 was $4.8 trillion while in 2006 it rose to $9.3 trillion.  When borrowers began defaulting on their mortgages, banks that had used the mortgages as collateral to borrow for investments in other risky instruments were suddenly unable to meet their obligations.  The downward spiral into total collapse was well underway.

If the Federal Reserve had been a public institution, it might have implemented a different set of policies to avert the disastrous bubble that has now burst.

Another way in which the Federal Reserve has become complicit in the financial crisis is through its non-interventionist approach to the proliferation of very risky financial instruments known as derivatives.  With risky mortgages backing further risky, highly-leveraged investment in derivatives, the calamitous outcome was inevitable.

In addition, deregulating the financial system created the conditions which engendered the financial crisis by transforming commercial banks, whose primary purpose was to serve as a safe place for consumers to deposit their money, into investment institutions where risk-taking for profits was the central objective.  Now, consumers hard-earned money was now being deposited into apparently safe institutions when, in fact, it had indirectly become the source of funds for greedy investors who were willing to take risks to earn large profits.

Regulation of the banking system was solidified in the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prohibited a commercial bank from owning speculative financial institutions.  It imposed restrictions on the integration of banking, insurance and stock-trading companies to protect the consumer from losing their money through risky investments.

Since the 1980s, the banking and investment sector has been pressuring Congress to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act to afford them the opportunity to increase their profits by using depositor’s money to back risky investments.  Their efforts succeeded when Congress passed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999 which repealed Glass-Steagall and allowed commercial bankers to underwrite and trade instruments of a highly risky nature.  It also lifted most restraints on the monopolization of the institutions in the financial sector of the economy.

To compound the problem of deregulating banks, Congress passed an amendment to an appropriations bill which deregulated derivatives.  Derivatives are an extremely risky investment which is highly leveraged.  Banks would now be free through their investment arm to risk depositors’ money in an investment that should be reserved for those who want to gamble large profits at the risk of large losses.

By deregulating the banking system, freeing derivatives from regulation, and creating a privately owned Federal Reserve System paved the way for the financial crisis which is not only destabilizing the American financial system but the global one as well.  Deregulation and privatization are two of the main pillars in the free market economic system and their failure is proof that the non-wealthy members of society are adversely affected.  In this case, it is clear that privatization and deregulation were not intended to benefit the non-oligarchical members of society but to create opportunities for large accumulations of wealth.  The only hope of ending the financial crisis and avoiding another one is to reform the system to protect all the people.

State of Darkness: US Genocides since 1945.

http://www.stateofdarkness.com

Prop. 8: Breaking It Down

The other day I wondered if the No on 8 side was being too cautious in their advertising, instead of putting an actual face on the discrimination and harm that would be suffered if marriage rights were eliminated for a particular class of people.  Well, this video isn’t exactly that, but it certainly makes the point about discrimination.  Via Amanda at Pandagon, this is my favorite video of the cycle.  A group redubbed the voices on a video of young people ranting about all the supposed consequences about gay marriage, and changed it so they say “interracial marriage.”  It’s kind of perfect:

See, this comes down to discrimination, pure and simple.  The other side wants to talk about ancillary outcomes, but really they want to hurt LGBT people.  I mean, we have to be willing to say that.  The other side has no problem outlining what they consider to be the stakes, as crazy as they think they are:

“This vote on whether we stop the gay-marriage juggernaut in California is Armageddon,” said Charles W. Colson, the founder of Prison Fellowship Ministries and an eminent evangelical voice, speaking to pastors in a video promoting Proposition 8. “We lose this, we are going to lose in a lot of other ways, including freedom of religion.”

Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative Christian lobby based in Washington, said in an interview, “It’s more important than the presidential election.”

“We’ve picked bad presidents before, and we’ve survived as a nation,” said Mr. Perkins, who has made two trips to California in the last six weeks. “But we will not survive if we lose the institution of marriage.”

I’m glad that No on 8 is raising a lot of money, and that high-profile Californians like Maria Shriver are on board.  But at some point in this final week, someone has to break this down.  This is about harming same-sex couples.

Arnold Calls the Special Session as the Legislative Republicans Engage in Magical Thinking

Last week, I mentioned that the Governor was likely going to call a special session to deal with the budget.  He’s now announced as much, and now we have three plans emerging:

1) The Democratic Plan: Realism. We can only do so much to cut spending without slashing into services that a vast majority of Californians agree are essential. So, we need to increase revenue to balance the budget.

2) Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Idea: It’s not so far off from the Democrats really. He has pretty clearly accepted the fact that we need additional revenue, at least in the short term. He wants a commission in the mold of Speaker Bass’s long term plan to reform the tax structure.  Cool, but I’m not sure we have the time for that.

3) Legislative Republicans and their magical thinking: This is real:

The Legislature’s Republican leaders – Sen. Dave Cogdill, Modesto, and Assemblyman Mike Villines, Clovis – delivered a letter to Schwarzenegger on Monday urging that taxes be lowered to bolster California’s rocky economy.

Specifically, the GOP leaders asked for a new employee tax credit for businesses that hire the unemployed; a manufacturing investment credit for equipment purchases; a cut in the capital gains tax to encourage business investment; and modification of the tax code and suspension of regulatory burdens to spur job creation. (SacBee 10/27/08)

Um, they aren’t even going to pretend to present a solution? They are just going to demand what amounts to additional spending at a time of fiscal crisis. Is Mike Villines even in contact with reality any more?

Folks, this makes the Nov. 4 election all the more critical. We need to win every contested seat. However, it looks likely that we won’t get to 2/3 in both houses, even if everything goes exceedingly well. So, here’s my prognostication:

The Republicans refuse to address reality, and nothing happens in the special session save a few, relatively minor cuts on the budget. I’m not sure if there’s anything left for Democrats to give at this point. If anything else is taken from education, CTA is likely to start primarying incumbents. Same thing for other interest groups.

So, the Democratic leaders and Arnold come to some sort of agreement and put something on the special election ballot, probably in March.  They might need to gather signatures for it, but I just don’t see the situation that gets us 2/3 in the Assembly.

Unless we surpass every expectation.  So, back to work…