Measure splitting the state looks set to appear on ballot

by Brian Leubitz

I’ll admit that I sort of thought this was some sort of joke that would never make it to the ballot. I was surprised when word filtered out that serious signature gathering was moving forward in the spring and summer. Apparently that has now borne fruit:

Tim Draper said he will file the signatures in Sacramento on Tuesday morning. State officials still need to review the petitions to ensure the initiative can qualify.

“California needs a reboot,” Draper’s campaign said in a statement on Monday. “With six Californias, we can refresh our government.” (LA Times)

Well, he’s got the awkward technology lingo thing going on, but just because you can say “reboot” doesn’t mean it is a good idea. An LAO report from earlier in the year showed a bunch of flaws in the proposal including higher costs and greater inequalities. Yes, Silicon Valley would be a dynamic and wealthy state, but what about the rest of the state(s)?

And then there is the whole question of this being entirely powerless until Congress acts. With the Senate divided, would either party want to roll the dice on 10 new Senators?

In the end, Draper will spend his few millions on this, the state will pay to count these votes, and not much will happen.

Milestone follows budget stability since 2012.

by Brian Leubitz

It’s been a long time, but we did it! Positive cash!

State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly cash report for the month of June, and announced that the state’s General Fund — the primary account from which California funds its day-to-day operations and programs — ended the fiscal year with a positive cash balance for the first time since June 30, 2007. A positive cash balance means that the state had funds available to meet all of its payment obligations without needing to borrow from Wall Street or the $23.8 billion available in its more than 700 internal special funds and accounts.

Now, this is more of a symbolic milestone than anything else. The Controller can shift money around so that there isn’t a huge cost to the taxpayers of having a general fund deficit on one particular day. And the close of a fiscal year isn’t really that much different than any other day.

That being said, this still speaks volumes about where we have come from over the past two years. Since the majority vote budget rules and the Prop 30 tax increases passed, we are on solid footing. We still need to do more to focus on what comes next when the Prop 30 taxes expire, as a simple expiration would just put us back to the boom/bust cycle that we’ve seen for the last 20 years.

But for today, hooray!

Yee defeats former Speaker John Pérez

by Brian Leubitz

Maybe you see races decided by 484 votes for some City Council races, or in some some states in exceptionally close elections. But in a California statewide election? That razor’s edge is extremely rare:

A month after the primary election, Democrat Betty Yee finished 484 votes ahead of John A. Pérez for second-place in the state controller’s race, officials announced Monday.

Lake County Registrar Diane Fridley used nearly all of her allotted 28 days to certify the results in the down-ballot contest that sparked a daily ritual of political junkies refreshing their web browsers. (SacBee)

Just how close is that? It is 12 thousandths of a percent of the vote total.   Or approximately the same as the vote difference in Florida in 2000 (percentage wise).

Pérez can seek recounts of specific precincts, but there is always the risk of going the other way. There is no guarantee of picking up votes in any one precinct. Because Lake County took so much time, there is a limited decision period for Pérez to decide if he wants to seek that recount. But as of right now, Betty Yee looks to be the favorite over Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearingen in November.

Supreme Court declines review of gay treatment ban

by Brian Leubitz

While there was some very disappointing news coming out of the Supreme Court today, there was some positive as well:

The justices on Monday let stand an appeals court ruling that said the state’s ban on so-called conversion therapy for minors doesn’t violate the free speech rights of licensed counselors and patients seeking treatment.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled last year that California lawmakers properly showed that efforts to change sexual orientation were outside the scientific mainstream and have been rejected for good reason.(SacBee)

This is very good news for teenagers that had been subjected to the harmful practice. It has no basis in anything resembling science, gives credibility to homophobes, and can irreparably damage the self-esteem of its victims.

In short, there is clear evidence that reparative therapy does not work, and some significant evidence that it is also harmful to LGBT people.

In contrast, there is ample evidence that societal prejudice causes significant medical, psychological and other harms to LGBT people. (HRC)

As you can see from the statistics in the image to the right, LGBT youth face many challenges already. There is no place for this practice in anything resembling a medical setting, and it should never be forced upon children. This ban is a big step forward in the fight against homophobia.

Lake County holds the last remaining uncounted ballots.

by Brian Leubitz

UPDATE June 30: Lake County News has an update:

Maybe tomorrow we’ll have an idea of what is going on in Lake County for those last 6,000+ ballots.

The Controller’s race is now sitting at a 861 vote lead for BoE member Betty Yee over former Speaker John Pérez. And the only remaining outstanding mail-in ballots come from Lake County:

But before any decisions are made on a possible recount, there are about 6,000 ballots to count in Lake County, where Pérez outpolled Yee by about seven percentage points in election day results. Diane Fridley, the Lake County registrar, said Tuesday that the office plans to process 5,263 vote-by-mail ballots Thursday morning and will sometime later deal with 743 provisional and 47 damaged ballots. The office will finish its work no later than next Tuesday’s deadline, said Fridley, who is on light duty following surgery and has only a skeleton staff to help with the ballot work.

Fridley said it’s the first time in her 36 years at the office that any statewide race could come down to Lake County. Both campaigns have been in touch and plan to have representatives in her Lakeport office on Thursday.

“We’re working as fast as we can,” she said.(SacBee)

It does seem a bit odd that Lake County is now the focus, but we are still waiting on those results. In the results previously announced in that county, Pérez and Republican David Evans basically tied with 2326 and 2325 votes. Yee trailed behind with 1662 and Swearingen with 1134. If the proportions are the same with those 5,263 votes, Pérez (and Evans) would pick up about 390 votes on Yee. That would still leave Yee ahead by over 400 votes.

But to be clear, this is an extraordinarily close race. In the end, it could come down to a few thousandths of a point. In an election with about 4 million votes, the odds of that happening are just mind-boggling.

Lake County said that they would be counting on Thursday, but no results have been released on the web yet. I’ll update this post if results are released

Water bond still faces tunnel stumbling block

by Brian Leubitz

There is little disagreement that our water infrastructure needs some work. Across party lines and the north-south divide, there is a consensus that we need to invest in our water system. The amount of the bond package is still in dispute, but those are minor disagreements.

But the one big stumbling block are the twin tunnels that Gov. Brown wants to build to bring water to Southern California from the Delta. The administration released a report on the potential job gains from the project:

The study’s author, Dave Sunding, a UC Berkeley agricultural and resource economist, predicts that construction of what is called the Bay-Delta Conservation Project would create an average of about 15,500 jobs a year over a decade of construction and habitat restoration. Once built, the project to make water supplies more reliable would spur an additional estimated 19,600 jobs a year over 50 years, he said.

“In the short, medium and long range, the Bay Delta Conservation would provide economic benefits to California,” said Nancy Vogel, spokeswoman for the Department of Water Resources. “The plan is essentially an insurance policy against species extinction and inadequate water supplies.” (LA Times)

To call these figures controversial is a big understatement. The job figures are being called highly speculative, on both construction and the long-term prospects. The tunnels, which were rejected by the voters during Brown’s first stint as governor in the 80s, are back again with the same controversy. Like then, the questions of drought are still very much present. If our current drought continues, or another, more vicious dry spell hits, there simply won’t be any water there.

Sen. Lois Wolk, who represents much of the Delta has been trying to move past this issue, and is taking the right tack. She is working hard to get a water bond on the ballot without any sort of authorization for the tunnels. And in the NBCLA clip below the fold, this is what Sen. Steinberg is endorsing, and warning against a bond that includes them.

The tunnels are a big conversation of their own, and tying the bond up with that political melee could backfire at the ballot. But with the deadline for the ballot getting closer, we should have a resolution soon.

Potential new majority leader not normally in step with his home state’s leadership

Kevin McCarthy looks all but assured of assuming Eric Cantor’s old job as Majority Leader in the House. Raul Labrador is having troubles controlling his own state’s convention, let alone trying to wrangle votes for leadership, and there don’t appear to be any viable challengers. So, it appears that is just a matter of time until both the Majority and Minority Leaders are Californians.

Now, you might think that awesome for California. We’ll be flush with federal dollars for infrastructure and other development. Well, you may want to hold that thought. McCarthy is a Republican. In 2014. That means he must act like all federal programs are ridiculous and that states are awesome. Except California and our San Francisco values.

As I noted on the budget post below, McCarthy has been on the harshest HSR critics for years now. He does not like the project for a multitude of reasons. The cynical would say that it may have something to do with his overall chumminess with energy companies. And if you look at his energy policy, you won’t find too many disagreements with Big Oil. But if you ask him, it is about funding and protecting the California and federal budgets.

He aimed most of his ire at the bullet train project, which would receive $250 million in the next fiscal year and in subsequent years. The funds are 25% of revenues from the state’s cap-and-trade program, which collects fees on polluters.

“Time and again, the high-speed rail boondoggle has proven to be an unfeasible project that will put undue and damaging pressure on our state budget, ultimately hurting taxpayers,” McCarthy said in a statement. (LAT)

There area a multitude of other issues where he disagrees with a majority of the state. On water, he is hard-core in the agricultural corner, a stalwart for the farmers over fish people. And that isn’t really surprising considering his district. It is a strong GOP district, with Obama not managing to break 40% in either election.

But there are some other dynamics to his district. Check these demographics:

Race: 75.8% White, 6.8% Black, 5.2% Asian, 1.4% American Indian (National Percentages: 72.4% White, 12.6% Black, 4.8% Asian, 0.9% American Indian)

Ethnicity: 64.6% Non-Hispanic, 35.4% Hispanic (National Percentages: 83.6% Non-Hispanic, 16.4% Hispanic) (Politics USA)

McCarthy has never been hard line anti-immigrant. To be honest, it is hard to find a big difference on that front from Cantor. As he has a large farmworker population, and many large agricultural operations that rely on them, he is in a tough position with his more reactionary colleagues when he has support like this:

“There is no reason for Congressman Kevin McCarthy, as leader, not to take leadership on this issue,” said immigration reform activist Arturo Rodriguez, president of United Farm Workers. “Everyone will expect it and demand it. And we will step up all of our activities as a whole.” (CNN)

But McCarthy is a smart man. You don’t move up the ladder as quickly as he has if that wasn’t true. He sees the math, and understand the Republican predicament if they keep turning off Latino voters. In a district like his own, it would be hard to miss.

A few years ago, we thought we would have a great opportunity for reform. Republicans like Cantor and Boehner knew that the party had to change on the issue, or would continue to haunt them. But with Brat’s win over Cantor, will McCarthy continue to press the issue?

“I think his (McCarthy’s) views on immigration are similar to Cantor’s,” said Steven Camarota, director of research for the non-profit Center for Immigration Studies. “But after this week’s results, it seems much less likely he would push it. And even less likely still that he would move his members to push it.” (CNN

But McCarthy is capable of building coalitions, sometimes despite his own party’s reluctance. If he is willing to work with Boehner and Democrats, he could probably muster the votes. The question is how he deals with his own members. It is a question of threading a very, very fine needle. But it is a needle that he, and his party, need to thread. Electorally, Democrats would be better if he didn’t, but clearly comprehensive immigration reform would be the right course for the nation.

But on the plus side, he frequently says funny/incomprehensible things, so there’s that.