Dababneh in extremely tight race in AD-45 special

by Brian Leubitz

Apparently the phrase “playing with house money” has caught fire in San Diego. David Alvarez has a solid hold of a San Diego council seat and a bright future no matter what the outcome of the mayoral election. But now he is the Democratic hope to defeat the somewhat reactionary Kevin Faulconer in the February 11 runoff.

Faulconer led a field of 12 candidates in Tuesday’s special election with 43.58 percent of the vote, with vote by mail ballots and all 581 precincts counted, according to figures released by the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.

Alvarez finished 2,638 votes ahead of former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher in the race for second. He received 52,283 votes, 25.59 percent of the vote, and Fletcher 49,645, 24.3 percent. (News10)

Though there are still some early and provisional votes outstanding, it seems unlikely that Fletcher will overcome Alvarez. And with that, some are saying that this could be the end of Nathan Fletcher’s political career. While it is possible to make a political comeback, the timing of this mayoral election wasn’t really great for Fletcher. He kind of had to run, with his new Democratic label and high visibility. But, he never really had the time to win over the Democratic base.

And that is where Alvarez came in. He was the biggest beneficiary of attacks in many mediums against Fletcher, but now he’ll be going head to head with Faulconer. At some level, maybe the Republicans were more worried about facing Fletcher in a run-off, but their personal dislike of the man than many considered a “turncloak” was very strong. And the wounds were still fresh from that switch. Maybe time will heal some wounds, but don’t expect a quick turnaround of Fletcher’s political fortunes.

In another race in Southern California, Democrat Matt Dababneh (and Rep. Brad Sherman’s district director) is locked in a way too close race with Republican Susan Shelley. With all precincts reporting, Dababneh holds a 13,309-13,136 lead with some provisionals and early votes still out.  The district is heavily Democratic, but turnout was once again very low allowing Shelley to make a strong showing.  The results in this one are likely to need a while to settle out. A Dababneh win would be the 54th Democratic seat, and return the supermajority that took its most recent hit with Holly Mitchell’s move to the Senate.

UPDATE: Fletcher just conceded the race and endorsed Alvarez.

San Diego Mayoral race gets nasty

by Brian Leubitz

I’ll admit that there are others doing a better job of following the San Diego mayoral election, I’ve been kind of viewing it from afar. However, this little exchange was worth noting:

@vosdscott @MickeyKasparian Because @nathanfletcher is an arrogant, self-centered prick who sees himself as God's gift to America. #idolatry

— Tony Krvaric (@TonyKrvaric) November 14, 2013

Now, that just looks like your generic stupid person on the internet, until you realize that Tony Krvaric is the Southern Vice Chair  of the California Republican Party. Fletcher is still something of a sore spot for the local Republicans, but this is a bit much even considering that fact.

Speaking of Fletcher, he’s been losing steam rapidly and a new Datamar poll shows him polling third, well behind David Alvarez in second. At this point, the big question is how turnout will affect Kevin Faulconer’s vote total. Datamar has him right around 44%, below the threshold to skip a February runoff. No matter who is in that runoff, expect more of the war of words over the next few months.

LA Times poll has dire warnings for the minority party

by Brian Leubitz

If you look at the composition of the legislature, or the voter registration numbers, you’ll quickly see that we are in a pretty gloomy era for Republicans. But, wait, darker days are just around the corner: a LA Times poll shows just how poorly the CRP is situated in front of the demographic wave.

Already those younger and minority voters – 38% of the voter pool – are propping up Democrats in California. Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown has a positive job approval rating of 55% overall. Among white voters the rating is 51%. Among black voters, it is 61%, Among Latinos, it is 67%.

Other poll findings suggest no end to that imbalance. Asked their political ideology, 52% of those ages 49 and younger describe themselves as liberal, to 40% who say conservative. That is close to the opposite of those over 50, only 47% of whom say they are liberal to 58% conservative. (LA Times)

As the Times points out, there is hope for the GOP that younger voters will gradually shift to the right, a process that has occurred in previous generations. But if you look at who today’s Republicans are, here is what you get: a middle aged, upper middle class, white man.

These are not the demographics for future electoral success. Minorities continue to grow as a percentage of voters, and broader participation in statewide elections could simply exacerbate these problems for the CRP.

But the CRP isn’t alone, this is the same problem generally facing the entire Republican Party.  And Gov. Chris Christie is an excellent example of this. He is considered a moderate Republican, and gains a strong majority of support among Northeastern Republicans. But he only gets 27% of Southern GOP support in a recent poll. And head to head against Hillary Clinton, no Republican candidate can really claim to have an electability argument in their favor.

If the Republicans are to move forward as a viable party, they need to consider whether they will stick to the ideological guns on social and immigration issues. As it stands, even a solid political tactician like Jim Brulte won’t be able to swing the party’s fate without a major shift in their overall goals as a party.

by Rebecca Band, California Labor Federation

“Thank you for your service.”

It’s a line we hear and say a lot around Veteran’s Day, especially in California, home to 1.8 million veterans, more than in any other state.

But if we really want to show gratitude for our veterans, then we need to do more than utter a simple “thank you.” We need to help these brave heroes find a middle-class life when they return from serving our country.

According to the Department of Veterans Affairs annual survey of veterans, jobs are the biggest concern for our returning veterans, and for good reason — the unemployment rate for veterans of recent conflicts is an unacceptable 10 percent, and 1.5 million young veterans – many with families to support — currently live under the poverty line.

It hasn’t always been like this. According to Nick Berardino, Vietnam Veteran and General Manager of the Orange County Employees Association:

When we came back from Vietnam, they spit on us, but at least we could find a job. Today, veterans get a hand shake and a thank you, but a future that includes unemployment, low wages and no way for them to care for their families. We can and should do much better for our veterans.

Those who serve our country in uniform risk their lives to defend and protect the freedoms we all value. That’s why leaders from the California Labor movement and elected officials joined together with veterans in Sacramento today to unveil a new seven-point plan to put our state’s veterans on the path to good jobs and a middle-class life.

California Labor Federation Executive-Secretary Treasurer Art Pulaski:

Far too often, our nation’s veterans don’t receive the support they’ve earned or the services they need when returning home. California’s labor unions are taking the lead to change that. WWII veterans, along with their unions, helped build our nation’s middle class brick by brick. Veterans and labor unions are poised once again to partner to strengthen our economy and preserve the American Dream.

The seven-point plan focuses on:

1.    Creating and growing good jobs for veterans. Among states that receive grants for vets from the U.S. Department of Labor, California has one of the lowest rates of placing veterans in jobs. We must align our state resources – incentives, contracts, purchasing, hiring – to encourage and reward the hiring of veterans, who represent the best in possible employees.

2.     Matching training and skills to veterans. Veterans come out of active duty with significant skills that can be translated into a variety of careers. Too often, the language used to describe military job duties doesn’t match the language of those hiring in the civilian world. We support policies that capture and maximize the skills vets have acquired to gain them the best jobs in growing fields that pay living wages.

3.     Protecting jobs for veterans. Workers should be rewarded, not disadvantaged, when they go into active or reserve service. Vets should have guarantees that their jobs will be there when they return, that they be able to maintain their health care coverage, and that they will have recall rights should their jobs get eliminated.

4.     Streamlining veteran job services. According to multiple studies, California does not provide a coordinated, integrated system that streamlines employment-related services to veterans, and has failed to meet veteran employment goals set by federal grants. It’s time to streamline the delivery of job services to veterans and that tailor services to the special needs and skill sets of veterans.

5.     Providing more housing for veterans. Vets make up a disproportionate share of the homeless population and are significantly more likely than the general population to become homeless. No one should be forced to live on the street after serving our country, which is why we support policies and funding to build more housing, including rental units, for veterans.

6.     Ensuring veterans receive their benefits. California lags behind other states in the amount of benefits claimed by veterans. Even though veterans are eligible for federal pensions and health benefits, many California vets rely on public state programs rather than collecting the benefits they’ve earned and deserve. A 2013 Little Hoover Commission report estimates that California leaves between $500 million and $1 billion in federal dollars on the table due to veterans not signing up for benefits.  

7.      Providing services for diverse veteran populations. Currently, 70 percent of veterans in California are age 50 or over, but at the same time, large numbers of younger veterans — many of whom are women and minorities — are returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Different groups of veterans will need different services for their transition to civilian life, which is why we support tailoring programs and policies to the needs of the diverse veteran populations in the state.

Yvonne Walker, U.S . Marine Corps Veteran and President of SEIU Local 1000:

We owe every man and woman who goes into service for their country a debt of gratitude. But gratitude isn’t enough. At the very least, they have earned the peace of mind that their jobs will be there when they return, that they be able to maintain their health care coverage, and that they will have recall rights should their jobs get eliminated.

In addition to the policy agenda, Labor groups also have identified needed projects and local opportunities where are coming together to provide service for veterans such as renovating, painting or improving the grounds at local VFW or American Legion halls; hosting food and supply donation drive to support veterans in need; and assembling care packages along with letters to be sent overseas.

Orange County unions led by the Orange County Employees Association (OCEA), along with veterans and community leaders, will hold a large Veterans Day special event to pay tribute to Veterans and their families following the “Day of Service” volunteer projects.

For more details on service projects and others actions taking place around the state, go to www.veteransandlabor.com

Embattled Senator Faces Rules Committee to Keep Committee Assignments

by Brian Leubitz

Ron Calderon’s had a no-good, awful, very bad few days. But being named in an FBI investigation generally doesn’t make for good times. And while Sen. Steinberg notes that he doesn’t want to play judge and jury for the San Gabriel Valley senator, he would like to pull him off his committees to limit any appearances of improprieties. Sen Steinberg:

I am asking the Senate Rules Committee to temporarily remove Senator Ron Calderon as chair of the Senate Insurance Committee, pending resolution of the United States Attorney’s investigation into his conduct. I will also ask the Committee to temporarily remove Senator Calderon from all other committee assignments, pending the same investigation.

I do not make this request lightly, nor do I judge the truth of the publicly reported allegations. I am concerned, however, about keeping Senator Calderon in his positions. The allegations, though yet unproven, are serious enough to cloud any interactions the Senator might have with colleagues, advocates, and the public on issues within his jurisdiction.

The allegation that an elected official accepted money and other favors in exchange for official acts is perhaps the most serious breach of the public trust and the institution in which they serve. In other highly sensitive public situations that do not involve proven allegations of misconduct, public employers take similar actions. The public and the Senate deserve no less protection in the current situation.

Calderon has made no comment, and seems unlikely to fight the “temporary” changes. He’ll likely need to save his energy for a prospective prosecution and general fight for the future of the Calderon political dynasty. But George Skelton points out a little something about our political system: there is far too fine of a line between bribery and legal contributions.

In politics, there’s sleaze that can send a slimeball to prison. There also is legal bribery. Lots of it….  And I’m not saying that legal bribery is as odorous as smelly sleaze. But it does tend to emit a stench. Campaign money actually gets a bad rap, to one degree. It costs a fair amount to run a competitive race.

If the public is unwilling to finance the campaigns of state politicians – and public financing has become impractical anyway, because of U.S. Supreme Court rulings – then the political funds must come from some other source. A very wealthy candidate might be willing to finance his own campaign, but normally the funding is supplied by favor-seeking special interests.(George Skelton / LA Times)

Skelton goes on to list a few of the many ways rich donors can curry favor with cash, and how those politicians can then spend it. Of course there is a stench, but this is the system that we chose, or at least the system that the Supreme Court has chosen for us. It is a system that is dominated by those with the most readily available cash.

We should do everything in our power to root out corruption, but we have to do as much as possible to clean up the system that makes corruption, legal and illegal, so readily available.

Photo credit: Sen. Ron Calderon’s office. Caption: “Senator Calderon, accompanied by his older brother, Assemblymember Charles Calderon, and the Senator’s nephew, Ian Calderon, as they prepare to begin giving the turkeys to the local community organizations that participated in Operation Gobble.”

SB City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack Finishes First in Mayoral Vote, Gets Recalled

by Brian Leubitz

Recalls generally come in waves, and the wave in San Bernardino is no different.  While the last 24 hours featured more Calitics coverage of the city than the previous year, it certainly has been an interesting year.  City Attorney James F Penman’s long tenure in office, over 25 years, has come to an end after his recall last night. But that isn’t even the most interesting part of all this. The recall supporters also recalled two of his allies, Wendy McCammack and John Valdivia.

Valdivia was ultimately able to fend off the challenge in a very poor turnout election. Epicly poor, really. As of the latest tallies last night, which hopefully will go up a lot by the next update tomorrow afternoon, turnout in the San Bernardino election was standing at 7.75%. Yes, well under 10%, which seems like a hopeful target for the final tally.  How low? Well, that’s substantially less than the 15% of voters needed to get the recall on the ballot. This is an odd situation: More people signed the recall petition than voted in the recall election.

But I digress, Valdivia is leading at (609-343) to keep his job. On the other hand, Wendy McCammack is looking like she is in trouble at 1,256-944 in favor of recall. The irony of that is the fact that McCammack is now leading the mayoral vote, and appears set for a runoff with businessman Carey Davis:

Councilwoman Wendy McCammack led all mayoral candidates and will face accountant Carey Davis in a February run-off, even as voters in McCammack’s 7th Ward decided to recall her from the council.

With all precincts reporting in unnofficial results Tuesday night, McCammack led Davis by 136 votes, with candidates Rick Avila and Rikke Van Johnson trailing by more than a 1,000 votes and others in the 10-person field further behind. (SB Sun / Ryan Hagen)

The tumult and odd results in this election shouldn’t really be a huge surprise, as the city is going through bankruptcy. And perhaps voters were simply turned off by the whole process, but really, people, now is the time to engage, not ignore your local government. But hey, maybe we can make some trivia questions out of this.