Now that the primary dust is settled and I have some time, I can present my analysis of the California districts this year. With top-two, we have some more interesting races to watch. With the lack of a write-in option in the November elections, I came up with a new safer-than-safe rating, “Guaranteed”. The outcomes will not be different from the “Safe” races, but I like having them separated, because some of the “Guaranteed” races will be interesting to watch.
California’s 1st congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Chico)
November ballot: Doug LaMalfa (R) vs. Jim Reed (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37
President 2008: McCain 53-42
California’s 2nd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: North Coast north of San Francisco (Eureka, Petaluma)
November ballot: Jared Huffman (D) vs. Dan Roberts (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 62-29
Governor 2010: Brown 64-30
President 2008: Obama 71-25
California’s 3rd congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: Solano County and Southern Sacramento Valley (Davis, Fairfield, Yuba City)
November ballot: John Garamendi (D-inc) vs. Kim Vann (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45
Governor 2010: Brown 50-43
President 2008: Obama 55-42
Description: Garamendi underperformed the previous incumbent Ellen Tauscher in both the 2009 special and the 2010 general in the old district, which was more Democratic than this one. Colusa County Supervisor Vann is also a serious candidate, having more cash-on-hand than Garamendi ($169K – $132K), though Garamendi spent more than 3.5 times as much as Vann ($895K – $244K).
California’s 4th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Placer County, eastern Central Valley
November ballot: Tom McClintock (R-inc) vs. Jack Uppal (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-38
President 2008: McCain 54-43
California’s 5th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Napa Valley
November ballot: Mike Thompson (D-inc) vs. Randy Loftin (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-30
Governor 2010: Brown 63-31
President 2008: Obama 70-27
California’s 6th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento
November ballot: Doris Matsui (D-inc) vs. Joseph McCray (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 59-32
Governor 2010: Brown 66-28
President 2008: Obama 68-29
California’s 7th congressional district: LEAN GOP
Geography: Eastern Sacramento suburbs (Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Citrus Heights)
November ballot: Dan Lungren (R-inc) vs. Ami Bera (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 49-44
President 2008: Obama 51-46
Description: This will probably be the race to watch in California’s congressional delegation. Lungren won a hard-fought race the last two cycles, and in 2010 Democrats picked up a State Assembly seat in this area, one of the few Democratic pickups that year. The district became slightly more Democratic, going from Obama by 0.5% to Obama by 5%. However, Lungren beat Bera by 12 points in June, so he has a small advantage.
California’s 8th congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Sierras and most of San Bernardino County
November ballot: Paul Cook (R) vs. Gregg Imus (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-36
President 2008: McCain 55-42
California’s 9th congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Lodi) and eastern Contra Costa County (Antioch)
November ballot: Jerry McNerney (D-inc) vs. Ricky Gill (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 47-44
Governor 2010: Brown 51-42
President 2008: Obama 56-41
Description: Republicans landed a top recruit in Gill to face McNerney, who has had a history of tough races. This district became slightly more Democratic than the old one, voting for Boxer and Brown. Gill could use McNerney’s recent move to Stockton from Pleasanton in the Bay Area to his advantage, and has argued that McNerney has not been an effective San Joaquin County representative. This will be a race to watch, though due to this district being slightly more Democratic than the old CA-11, I give McNerney a small edge.
California’s 10th congressional district: LIKELY GOP
Geography: Stanislaus County and southwestern San Joaquin County
November ballot: Jeff Denham (R-inc) vs. Jose Hernandez (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 52-39
Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44
President 2008: Obama 50-47
Description: Denham’s weak performance in June was surprising, considering his history of big margins in similar districts, though that may be due to nonpartisan candidate Chad Condit (son of former conservative Democrat congressman Gary Condit).
California’s 11th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Contra Costa County (Richmond, Walnut Creek, Concord)
November ballot: George Miller (D-inc) vs. Virginia Fuller (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 60-34
Governor 2010: Brown 61-34
President 2008: Obama 69-28
California’s 12th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Francisco
November ballot: Nancy Pelosi (D-inc) vs. John Dennis (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14
Governor 2010: Brown 78-16
President 2008: Obama 84-13
California’s 13th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Berkeley, Oakland
November ballot: Barbara Lee (D-inc) vs. Marilyn Singleton (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 83-11
Governor 2010: Brown 84-11
President 2008: Obama 87-10
California’s 14th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: South San Francisco, Daly City, San Mateo, Redwood City
November ballot: Jackie Speier (D-inc) vs. Debbie Bacigalupi (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27
Governor 2010: Brown 66-28
President 2008: Obama 73-24
California’s 15th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Southern East Bay (Hayward, Livermore, San Ramon)
November ballot: Pete Stark (D-inc) vs. Eric Swalwell (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 59-34
Governor 2010: Brown 59-35
President 2008: Obama 67-30
Description: For once, we have a race to watch in a safe district, with delegation dean Stark against fellow Democrat Swalwell. Stark has had a series of gaffes, and Swalwell gained the endorsements of the San Francisco Chronicle and Bay Area Newsgroup. Swalwell also hails from a part of the district that is new to Stark, the Tri-Valley area. Will term 20 be Stark’s last term?
California’s 16th congressional district: LIKELY DEM
Geography: Fresno, Madera, Merced
November ballot: Jim Costa (D-inc) vs. Brian Whelan (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-43
Governor 2010: Brown 50-42
President 2008: Obama 57-40
Description: Costa traded the Kern and Kings portions of his old district for Madera and Merced. He should be fine if he takes the race seriously, unlike last time.
California’s 17th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale)
November ballot: Mike Honda (D-inc) vs. Evelyn Li (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29
Governor 2010: Brown 61-34
President 2008: Obama 69-28
California’s 18th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (Menlo Park, Palo Alto, San Jose)
November ballot: Anna Eshoo (D-inc) vs. David Chapman (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32
Governor 2010: Brown 60-35
President 2008: Obama 70-27
California’s 19th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Jose
November ballot: Zoe Lofgren (D-inc) vs. Robert Murray (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31
Governor 2010: Brown 60-25
President 2008: Obama 70-27
California’s 20th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Northern Central Coast (Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz)
November ballot: Sam Farr (D-inc) vs. Jeff Taylor (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31
Governor 2010: Brown 63-31
President 2008: Obama 71-26
California’s 21st congressional district: LIKELY GOP
Geography: Southern Central Valley (Hanford, Bakersfield)
November ballot: John Hernandez (D) vs. David Valadao (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-40
Governor 2010: Brown 48-44
President 2008: Obama 52-46
Description: With the Democrats’ two best candidates, Michael Rubio and Dean Florez, not running and Valadao winning a majority of the vote in the first round, this district is very likely to go Republican.
California’s 22nd congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Fresno, Visalia
November ballot: Devin Nunes (R-inc) vs. Otto Lee (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30
Governor 2010: Whitman 59-35
President 2008: McCain 55-42
California’s 23rd congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Kern County (Bakersfield)
November ballot: Kevin McCarthy (R-inc) vs. Terry Phillips (NPP)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 64-26
Governor 2010: Whitman 58-33
President 2008: McCain 61-36
California’s 24th congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
November ballot: Lois Capps (D-inc) vs. Abel Maldonado (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45
Governor 2010: Brown 47-46
President 2008: Obama 56-41
Description: This was probably the toughest race for me to rate, between lean Dem and toss-up. Capps gets back her old district from the 90s that was marginal (including voting for Bob Dole in 1996) and that she won close races in. Capps is more entrenched now than she was in the 90s, but I don’t think she is used to serious campaigning after five non-competitive races. In addition, Maldonado represented this area in the state legislature, though he is not liked by the party base and could be hammered on taxes. I decided to give Capps a few more points due to being entrenched, though this race could become a toss-up again if there are any new developments.
California’s 25th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley
November ballot: Buck McKeon (R-inc) vs. Lee Rogers (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39
President 2008: Obama 49-48
California’s 26th congressional district: TOSS-UP
Geography: Ventura County (Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks)
November ballot: Julia Brownley (D) vs. Tony Strickland (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45
Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46
President 2008: Obama 56-41
Description: Democrats suffered a setback when County Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out in February and recruited Assemblywoman Brownley. A Santa Monica-area rep would be an awkward fit for a Ventura County district, but Strickland has had many close races himself. It is unknown who the supporters of nonpartisan candidate Linda Parks will go to in November.
California’s 27th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Pasadena, Monterey Park, Alhambra
November ballot: Judy Chu (D-inc) vs. Jack Orswell (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-39
Governor 2010: Brown 55-39
President 2008: Obama 61-36
California’s 28th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Glendale, Burbank
November ballot: Adam Schiff (D-inc) vs. Phil Jennerjahn (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 63-30
Governor 2010: Brown 63-30
President 2008: Obama 70-26
California’s 29th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Tony Cardenas (D) vs. David Hernandez (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 67-24
Governor 2010: Brown 68-24
President 2008: Obama 74-23
California’s 30th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Western San Fernando Valley
November ballot: Howard Berman (D-inc) vs. Brad Sherman (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
Governor 2010: Brown 57-36
President 2008: Obama 66-31
Description: This is the same-party race to watch, a clash of the titans if you will. Berman has the Hollywood establishment, while Sherman has more local endorsements, as well as Bill Clinton. Sherman has also been more visible in the area, and got more votes than Berman in June. As far as Republican/conservative outreach goes, Berman has the support of former mayor Richard Riordan, DA Steve Cooley, and county supervisor Mike Antonovich, while CPA and former Board of Equalization (the state’s tax board) member Sherman voted against TARP in 2008.
California’s 31st congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP
Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
November ballot: Bob Dutton (R) vs. Gary Miller (R-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44
Governor 2010: Brown 49-41
President 2008: Obama 56-41
Description: This is the only race where top-two cost a party a chance at a pickup. I hope this missed opportunity teaches Democrats a lesson to be more disciplined when it comes to candidates. As far as November goes, the combination of familiarity among locals and no scandals should give Dutton a comfortable edge.
California’s 32nd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Gabriel Valley
November ballot: Grace Napolitano (D-inc) vs. David Miller (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-36
Governor 2010: Brown 57-35
President 2008: Obama 62-35
California’s 33rd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: West Side L.A., Beach Cities, Palos Verdes
November ballot: Henry Waxman (D-inc) vs. Bill Bloomfield (NPP)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-39
Governor 2010: Brown 54-40
President 2008: Obama 64-32
California’s 34th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Downtown L.A.
November ballot: Xavier Becerra (D-inc) vs. Steven Smith (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16
Governor 2010: Brown 76-16
President 2008: Obama 77-19
California’s 35th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Inland Empire (Pomona, Fontana, Ontario)
November ballot: Joe Baca (D-inc) vs. Gloria Negrete-McLeod (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34
Governor 2010: Brown 58-33
President 2008: Obama 64-32
Description: Another same-party race to watch, with McLeod challenging Baca from the left. McLeod has represented Pomona and Chino, which are not familiar to Baca, and held him under 50% despite establishment backing.
California’s 36th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Riverside County
November ballot: Mary Bono Mack (R-inc) vs. Raul Ruiz (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-42
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43
President 2008: Obama 50-47
Description: Bono Mack had a closer-than-usual race in 2010 due to a third-party conservative. Now with a more Republican district she should be able to breathe easier.
California’s 37th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Crenshaw, Culver City
November ballot: Karen Bass (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 79-14
Governor 2010: Brown 79-15
President 2008: Obama 84-13
California’s 38th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Norwalk, Lakewood, Whittier
November ballot: Linda Sánchez (D-inc) vs. Ben Campos (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 55-35
Governor 2010: Brown 57-35
President 2008: Obama 61-35
California’s 39th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Fullerton, Yorba Linda, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills
November ballot: Ed Royce (R-inc) vs. Jay Chen (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 54-38
President 2008: McCain 49-47
California’s 40th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens
November ballot: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-inc) vs. David John Sanchez (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 72-18
Governor 2010: Brown 73-19
President 2008: Obama 77-19
California’s 41st congressional district: TOSS-UP
Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley
November ballot: Mark Takano (D) vs. John Tavaglione (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
President 2008: Obama 59-40
Description: This new Riverside seat will probably be the SoCal race to watch. On paper it should go Democratic, but Republicans have historically fared well in Riverside races. However, I haven’t been able to find any old Riverside districts as Democratic as this, so this district is uncharted territory for both parties.
California’s 42nd congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Corona, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore
November ballot: Ken Calvert (R-inc) vs. Michael Williamson (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33
Governor 2010: Whitman 56-35
President 2008: McCain 54-43
California’s 43rd congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne
November ballot: Maxine Waters (D-inc) vs. Bob Flores (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 68-23
Governor 2010: Brown 69-24
President 2008: Obama 75-22
Description: Flores got a third of the vote in the primary, so this may be a race to watch to see if Waters’ ethics issues finally catch up to her.
California’s 44th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Carson, Compton, Long Beach, San Pedro
November ballot: Janice Hahn (D-inc) vs. Laura Richardson (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 76-15
Governor 2010: Brown 77-15
President 2008: Obama 81-16
Description: The other incumbent-vs.-incumbent race has much less drama. Like in June, Hahn should easily get more votes than scandal-tainted Richardson.
California’s 45th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Central Orange County (Irvine, Tustin, Mission Viejo)
November ballot: John Campbell (R-inc) vs. Sukhee Kang (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33
Governor 2010: Whitman 59-34
President 2008: McCain 51-46
California’s 46th congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: North Central Orange County (Anaheim, Santa Ana)
November ballot: Loretta Sanchez (D-inc) vs. Jerry Hayden (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-40
Governor 2010: Brown 50-40
President 2008: Obama 58-39
California’s 47th congressional district: LEAN DEM
Geography: Long Beach, Garden Grove
November ballot: Gary DeLong (R) vs. Alan Lowenthal (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 50-42
Governor 2010: Brown 50-42
President 2008: Obama 58-39
Description: This should be a comfortable Democratic win, but Lowenthal’s until-recently lackluster fundraising and opposition to high-speed rail funds for the Central Valley has Democrats concerned. DeLong is also a serious contender, with strong backing from the NRCC.
California’s 48th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach
November ballot: Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc) vs. Ron Varasteh (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-35
Governor 2010: Whitman 58-35
President 2008: McCain 51-46
Californias’ 49th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Dana Point, San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad
November ballot: Darrell Issa (R-inc) vs. Jerry Tetalman (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-36
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
President 2008: Obama 49-48
California’s 50th congressional district: SAFE GOP
Geography: Temecula, San Diego County (Escondido, Santee)
November ballot: Duncan D. Hunter (R-inc) vs. David B. Secor (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-28
Governor 2010: Whitman 61-31
President 2008: McCain 58-39
California’s 51st congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: Imperial County, San Diego (Chula Vista, Imperial Beach)
November ballot: Michael Crimmins (R) vs. Juan Vargas (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32
Governor 2010: Brown 58-31
President 2008: Obama 65-32
California’s 52nd congressional district: LEAN GOP
Geography: Coronado, Poway, San Diego
November ballot: Brian Bilbray (R-inc) vs. Scott Peters (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-42
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43
President 2008: Obama 54-43
Description: This district is less Republican than the old CA-50, though Bilbray isn’t new to swingy districts having represented the old CA-49 in the 90s. Peters made it to the November ballot in spite of a nasty primary fight with the more liberal Saldana.
California’s 53rd congressional district: SAFE DEM
Geography: San Diego, Lemon Grove, El Cajon
November ballot: Susan Davis (D-inc) vs. Nick Popaditch (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40
Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
President 2008: Obama 60-36
Overall, here are my ratings for the congressional races.
Guaranteed DEM: 7
Safe DEM: 21
Likely DEM: 1
Lean DEM: 4
Toss-Up: 2
Lean GOP: 2
Likely GOP: 2
Safe GOP: 12
Guaranteed GOP: 2
If my ratings pan out, the best Democrats can do (holding all their Guaranteed, Safe, Likely, and Lean seats and winning both toss-ups) is 35-18 and the best Republicans can do is 33-20.
Districts I’m watching: CA-03, CA-07, CA-09, CA-15, CA-24, CA-26, CA-30, CA-35, CA-41, CA-43, CA-47, CA-52
