Tag Archives: 2010 election

A little truth in advertising

(Ah, eMeg… – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Forget the fact the Whitman does not take questions from the press. Forget the fact that she almost never appears at event that is free and open to the public. Forget the fact she is spending millions and millions of corporate dollars to craft a perfect "made for TV" image for the voters that we are supposed to buy, no questions asked.

Remember this: paying someone $3 million dollars for "campaign consulting" and then having them appear in your TV ad as a nuetral 3rd party validator is beyond the pale and not acceptable.    Not too mention – everyone else in the spot used to work for her and made millions of dollars during the dot.com boom as well. Where's the validation in that? How about someone from a charity you helped fund or create?  

If a politician put one of their staff or former staff in a commercial telling people how great they were – it would be roundly criticized and then some. What's the difference here?    

Judge for yourself. Below is our version of Meg's new TV spot with a little truth in advertising. After you watch the video, remember to post it to Facebook or twitter and share it with your friends – we may not have $150 million but we have a lot of friends we did not pay for.  

Desparate Vetting for Desparate Times

Earl Robert Brooks

John T. Nejedly

For the many of us who know – the County Assessor’s seat is a non-partisan, elected position within the county.  But for those who are not so keenly aware, much of the back-room politics happens along party lines.  As the Contra Costa Assessor’s seat is shaping its candidates for the June 2010 primaries – I’m very puzzled, as a political strategist at what the Democrats are entertaining and/or supporting for a candidate.

First, let’s look at John T. Nejedly who is a Republican.  Instantly, the name “Nejedly” jumps out as a recognizable name throughout Contra Costa – and it should.  John A. Nejedly, father of John T. Nejedly, represented Contra Costa County (CCC) as a State Senator from 1969 to 1980, CCC District Attorney from 1958 to 1969 and has built quite a family name and empire in this area.  There’s no question that John T. will be riding off his father’s coat tails in name recognition.

Second, John T. has run a successful campaign as Board Member for CCC Community College District, Ward 4.  With a whopping 67.7% win over Frank Quattro in the November 2006 election, this should at least give pause for the Dem’s to consider a political heavy-weight against John.

In October, Lisa Vorderbrueggen, of the Contra Costa Times reported that Bob Brooks of Antioch was “seriously exploring a run against Assessor Gus Kramer.”  Since October, it seems the CCC Democratic Central Committee has embraced Bob, as the candidate of choice to back.  Now this is where it gets fuzzy:

In chatting it up in the inner circles of Democratic Clubs around Contra Costa, nobody has heard the name of Bob Brooks.  When asked if they’ve heard of Earl Robert Brooks, I get the look of “deer in headlights,” or the other answer, “does he own Brooks Furniture?”  

According to the CCC Elections Department, Bob Brooks has never run a campaign, which means the probability of Brooks ever fundraising is pretty low.  Considering Brooks has yet to build a political machine, understand the mechanics behind it and execute everything from campaign filings, advertising, canvassing, strategy, GOTV and much, much more – will Bob be able to pull this off against seasoned politicians?  

If there were storm clouds hanging over this candidate about controversy, then there’s a 100% chance of rain.  As one of the members of the County Appeals Board, Brooks granted the favor of a $12.6 million tax break to Chevron’s Corporation – money that is desperately needed in our Cities, County schools, parks and fire districts.  When you do the math off Chevron’s balance sheets for 2008 – the Gross Profit for the corporation was around $79.6 Billion U.S. Dollars $12.6 million is about 0.00015% of that Net Profit.  Some may say that there was an Assessor’s error – “Show me the hard evidence of that.” Or they may say that Chevron had the tax cuts coming to them; however the State Auditors has given “high marks of excellence” to the Assessor’s Office during this time.  Whose interests does Bob Brooks serve – Chevron’s or the County?

Lastly, we can only hope that Brooks will be clean of any campaign donations made from Chevron employees or the Black American Political Action Committee of Contra Costa County (BAPAC), which is heavily funded by Chevron to the tune of $50,000 – according to 2006 campaign contribution records.  East Bay Express recently reported that another board member had received campaign contributions from Chevron – will Brooks take BAPAC money?

So as a political strategist within the Democratic ranks, I fail to see the advantage in vetting Bob Brooks, who in my opinion will easily give the non-partisan seat to a registered Republican.  My question to Central Committee Chairman Chuck Carpenter is, “is this the best candidate the Democrats can challenge toward John T. Nejedly?”

Jorgensen For Congress Announces Run For 2010

Democrat, Marta Jorgensen announced today that she will be running for Congress in the 24th Congressional District, the seat held by Republican Elton Gallegly for the past 22 years.  Last year, she was the Democratic nominee and with barely $20,000, Marta was able to win 42% of the vote.  

Polling shows that voters in the 24th Congressional District are tired of Elton Gallegly and they want change.   They want someone who can deliver healthcare and environmental reforms that will jump-start the economy.    

With more than 27 years as a vocational nurse, Marta Jorgensen knows first hand how the healthcare delivery system became a bureaucracy out of control.  Deeply involved in environmental issues for nearly 20 years, she knows how our dependence on fossil fuels has put our planet into climate crisis, which threatens growing cycles worldwide. As a small business owner, Marta created a computer school to help open up the world to young people.  

Healthcare reform, developing renewable alternative energy sources, and a solid commitment to improve our public educational institutions are key elements in restoring our economy.  Marta Jorgensen is a strong proponent of the CEED Program (Community Energy and Economic Development Program – www.ceedprogram.com) which was originally conceived of as part of Marta’s platform in her last campaign, but given its importance, was spun out as a free standing program that has received widespread support and interest in Congress and elsewhere. The CEED Program was designed to harness the new administration’s desire to promote renewable energy, green jobs and green companies throughout the country. In addition, it provides a direct means to harness citizen action at the community level and give it a focus, working in a partnership with government.

As a dedicated community activist, Marta can be a key player in Congress to help get the economy back on track.

With 36% registered Democrats, 43% registered Republicans, and a 21% decline-to-state voters, Marta Jorgensen is in a strong position to win in 2010.

Jorgensen For Congress Campaign Committee

Email:  [email protected]

For fundraising inquiries, contact:

Charlotte Dobbs & Co.

2730 Wilshire Blvd. Suite 550

Santa Monica, CA 90403

310/264-9200

310/264-2570 (fax)

www.charlottedobbs.com

For PR Inquiries, contact:

John Kera

The Kera Agency

10996 McLennan Street

Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91701

909-262-0835



www.jorgensenforcongress.com

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – May 2009 Special Election Edition

(More good stuff. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.73%
39.58%
R+1.85
O+0.5
CA-04
Tom McClintock
31.14%
45.83%
R+14.69
M+10.1
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.83%
41.82%
R+5.99
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.77%
39.29%
R+1.52
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.67%
40.50%
R+4.83
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.63%
42.40%
R+7.77
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.81%
42.08%
R+4.27
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.40%
44.77%
R+15.37
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.40%
40.27%
R+8.87
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.02%
44.12%
R+11.09
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.60%
32.94%
D+14.66
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.88%
47.62%
R+15.74
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.06%
R+17.12
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.59%
33.10%
D+16.49
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
59.01%
14.66%
D+44.35
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.63%
21.04%
D+32.59
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.84%
33.45%
D+9.39
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.57%
29.50%
D+17.07
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.80%
40.25%
R+5.45
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.90%
38.77%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.81%
42.32%
R+5.51
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.06%
39.23%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.28%
36.59%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.92%
40.69%
R+4.77
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.69%
38.51%
D+1.18
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.34%
R+5.47
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.85%
39.91%
R+3.06
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
38.00%
40.37%
R+2.37
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.96%
41.99%
R+6.03
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.82%
41.64%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.80%
41.16%
R+8.36
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.20%
43.36%
R+13.16
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.93%
41.58%
R+10.65
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.72%
39.80%
R+9.08
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.80%
23.71%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.66%
18.67%
D+37.99
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.33%
39.32%
D+0.01
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.61%
36.04%
D+4.57
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.61%
20.17%
D+28.44
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.27%
26.75%
D+20.52
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.22%
18.93%
D+32.29
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.08%
33.78%
D+15.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.22%
27.88%
D+20.34
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.92%
11.25%
D+53.67
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
62.00%
16.13%
D+45.87
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.85%
D+15.09
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.08%
31.46%
D+11.62
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.38%
36.29%
D+9.09
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Bill Hedrick: Underdog Race to Upset Election

(Candidates made quite the effort to talk with bloggers at the convention. Thanks for writing your experience up, Marinmaven. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Something is happening in the 44th Congressional District and it is excellerating. Whether it is the economy or changing demographics, Bill Hedrick wants harness that change into a win for republican, Ken Calvert’s congressional seat.  

I got to meet Bill Hedrick last Saturday at the 2009 California Democratic Party Convention in Sacramento. He looks like a teacher and it turns out that is his exact background. He is the President of the Rialto Teacher’s Association and was elected for 4 terms as president of the Corona-Norco Unified School District.

I am from Marin County where the democratic candidate always wins to the point that I suspect the Marin Republican Party picks their doomed candidates to run by lottery and perhaps as part of a hazing ritual. Being a Marinite means if you want to make a difference in the state or the country, you have to take a look at the difficult districts in the state and see what you can do.

District 44 is difficult. So difficult, when Bill Hedrick ran in 2008 his candidacy was off the radar of the DCCC and most everyone else. He lost, but not as much as other candidates in similar districts. District 44 is Riverside County and South Orange County. While he did well in Riverside, he had real problems with conservative Orange County. Hendrick points out that The Real Housewives of OC film in this district.

So the big question in the room was, how can he win this time?

First of all, this time around his calls to the PACS are being returned. The DCCC is helping with messaging. There is an ad running that points out that the incumbent republican voted against the stimulus package that would have benefited the 44th District more than any district in California.    

Of course, Bill Hedrick knows there is much more his campaign can do. Last election he had little over 900 volunteers and it was a very grassroots campaign. The contributions amounted to 900 contribution with the average contribution being $65. Often it was clear that the contributors were digging way deep into their pockets to make a meager contribution. He recognizes that he needs to expand is volunteer base and create a national contributor base. Hedrick needs more feet on the ground in Ladera Ranch.

Another area of growth is in voter registration. While Orange county portion of his district has a registration rate of 90%, Riverside County has only 50%.

Hedrick points out that the inland empire is issue oriented which is good for cross-over voters. He has been able to have the conservative voters in his district take another look at him because of his opposition to the TARP bill and his support of the stimulus bill. The people in his district are facing a 60% loss in equity in their homes and there are blocks where you can find 10 empty homes or more from foreclosure.

Hedrick believes that the Obama plan for renegotiating mortgages is not enough for Californians even in his district.

He is also concerned about the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. His family is a military family that has seen a total of 10 deployments. Hedrick feels strongly that last year was the time for troops to start pulling out and give the responsibilities to the Iraqis. The concern is that there will always be discoveries that will lead to new excuses that will keep us from getting out.

Personally, I got a really nice vibe from him.  

Wouldn’t it be great if we could win this seat?

http://www.hedrickforcongress….

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – April 2009 edition

(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.72%
39.63%
R+1.91
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.84%
41.88%
R+6.04
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.72%
39.35%
R+1.63
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.56%
R+4.92
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.70%
42.38%
R+7.68
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.97%
41.96%
R+3.99
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.41%
44.87%
R+15.46
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.38%
40.36%
R+8.98
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.05%
44.10%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.09%
D+14.37
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.91%
47.58%
R+15.67
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.13%
R+17.19
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.61%
33.15%
D+16.46
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.74%
D+44.24
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.13%
D+32.49
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.82%
33.58%
D+9.24
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.59%
29.65%
D+16.94
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.81%
40.15%
R+5.34
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.93%
38.80%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.30%
R+5.46
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.04%
39.22%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.31%
36.66%
D+9.65
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.91%
40.77%
R+4.86
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.56%
38.65%
D+0.91
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.86%
41.40%
R+5.54
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.02%
R+3.18
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.90%
40.35%
R+2.45
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.11%
41.83%
R+5.72
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.08%
R+3.94
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.82%
41.25%
R+8.43
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.19%
43.49%
R+13.30
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.89%
41.68%
R+10.79
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.71%
39.88%
R+9.17
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.81%
23.72%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.64%
18.71%
D+37.93
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.39%
R+0.07
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.23%
22.06%
D+32.17
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.60%
36.09%
D+4.51
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.65%
20.17%
D+18.48
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.22%
26.83%
D+20.39
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.28%
18.96%
D+32.32
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.07%
33.84%
D+15.23
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.24%
27.95%
D+20.29
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.93%
11.27%
D+53.66
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.92%
16.21%
D+45.71
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.96%
26.89%
D+15.07
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.09%
31.54%
D+11.55
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.33%
36.49%
D+8.84
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – March 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.12%
R+11.05
M+12.80
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.14%
D+14.32
O+17.64
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.93%
47.63%
R+15.70
M+15.00
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.96%
46.07%
R+17.11
M+14.16

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.67%
33.14%
D+16.53
O+21.35
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.77%
D+44.21
O+58.53
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.16%
D+32.46
O+41.34
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.68%
34.05%
D+8.63
O+16.81
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.50%
29.66%
D+15.84
O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip…

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.83%
40.20%
R+5.37
M+1.60
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.94%
38.83%
R+0.89
O+4.24
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.32%
R+5.48
M+7.90
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.03%
39.27%
D+2.76
O+4.11
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.45%
36.56%
D+9.89
O+4.39
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.86%
40.69%
R+4.83
O+1.39
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.55%
38.72%
D+0.83
O+0.66
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.84%
41.46%
R+5.62
O+3.73
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.05%
R+3.21
O+4.86
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.85%
40.44%
R+2.59
O+4.09
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.26%
41.61%
R+5.35
O+1.79
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.06%
R+3.92
M+4.12
AD-68
Van Tran
32.72%
41.61%
R+8.89
M+2.95
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
43.73%
R+13.61
O+3.93
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.62%
R+10.74
O+2.16
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.74%
39.81%
R+9.07
O+4.05

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.84%
23.73%
D+29.11
O+43.31
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.63%
18.74%
D+37.89
O+49.15
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.43%
R+0.11
O+3.91
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.24%
22.10%
D+32.14
O+40.90
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.59%
36.14%
D+4.45
O+16.55
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.62%
20.19%
D+18.43
O+42.28
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.13%
26.81%
D+20.32
O+45.90
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.36%
18.97%
D+32.39
O+44.45
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.04%
33.92%
D+15.12
O+24.81
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.21%
27.95%
D+20.26
O+35.46
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.95%
11.28%
D+53.67
O+71.90
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.91%
16.23%
D+45.68
O+55.86
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.92%
26.76%
D+15.16
O+34.34
AD-78
Martin Block
43.01%
31.51%
D+11.50
O+11.82
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.25%
36.62%
D+8.63
O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

Beth Krom Makes it Official, and Wow, Campbell’s Worse than Rohrabacher

Beth Krom goes up with her interim website and invites folks to her first fund-raiser on March 22nd.

The current Congressman, has been a national laughingstock for his comments about Atlas Shrugged finally coming true, but Beth Krom’s opening email also includes one amazing fact about John Campbell.

In four years as Mayor, I was never once contacted by Congressman Campbell to express interest in, or offer assistance on our community priorities.  He never attended a single city event, nor did he ever contact me to commend the city on any of our achievements. If the largest city in the 48th District is not being served, what hope is there for the other cities in the district?

What can you say about the arrogance of a Congressman who never once shows up or talks to the Mayor of the largest city in the district? At least Rohrabacher occasionally shows up at stuff to rant about immigrants and deny the science of climate change.

(Crossposted from Orange County Progressive)

Here’s Beth!

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010

It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers, complete with links to the complete updated list of registration numbers in each district.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project, Democracy for California, and my blog.

And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.

Edit by Brian: Check the flip for some great info.

SENATE

8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.18%
R+11.11
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.33%
33.41%
D+13.92
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.81%
47.82%
R+16.01
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.88%
46.37%
R+17.49

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.60%
33.39%
D+16.21
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.88%
14.97%
D+13.91
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.40%
21.44%
D+31.96
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.53%
34.35%
D+8.18
SD-40
Denise Moreno Ducheny
46.25%
30.12%
D+16.13

ASSEMBLY

17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small).

Republicans (14)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.82%
40.26%
R+5.44
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.77%
39.00%
R+1.23
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.88%
42.39%
R+5.51
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
41.90%
39.59%
D+2.31
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.48%
36.67%
D+9.81
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.93%
40.74%
R+4.81
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.20%
39.25%
R+0.05
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.76%
41.71%
R+5.95
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.65%
40.41%
R+3.76
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.69%
40.80%
R+3.11
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.04%
42.02%
R+5.98
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.93%
41.47%
R+4.54
AD-68
Van Tran
32.63%
41.90%
R+9.27
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.05%
43.99%
R+13.94

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.72%
24.00%
D+28.72
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.53%
18.92%
D+37.61
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.18%
39.61%
R+0.43
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.81%
22.54%
D+31.27
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.41%
36.45%
D+3.96
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.53%
20.37%
D+18.16
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.17%
26.91%
D+20.26
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.42%
19.18%
D+32.24
AD-31
Juan Arambula
48.90%
34.28%
D+14.62
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.05%
28.19%
D+19.86
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.96%
11.36%
D+53.60
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.62%
16.59%
D+45.03
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.92%
27.01%
D+14.91
AD-78
Martin Block
42.86%
31.89%
D+10.97
AD-80
Manuel Perez
44.99%
37.17%
D+7.82

Since it’s never too early to prepare for the next election, we should get started on targeting vulnerable districts right away. The 26th and 30th were close heartbreakers for us, but hopefully with more support from the CDP and national Dems, we can take them back.

The 37th was another close race, but fortunately Audra Strickland is term-limited out, so we have a better chance at a pickup here, and can strengthen our presence in this part of the state and hopefully take down Audra’s husband Tony in 2012. (I know the districts will have new configurations in 2012, and I intend to map out redistricting possibilities for the next decade later.) The 36th is edging closer and closer to a Dem edge in registration and with enough support we can pick this one up. The 38th is also ripe for the picking.

Other areas ripe for the picking include AD-33 on the Central Coast, and in the Inland Empire/Riverside County districts 63-65. My normally Republican-leaning hometown of Rancho Cucamonga is in the 63rd Assembly District and voted for Obama this year, so we have a real chance of making big gains in this part of the Southland. I can’t wait for 2010!

DiFi’s High Unfavorables Among 2010 Dem Candidates

The latest Field Poll is out (SF Chronicle here and Field PDF here) and it shows the favorability ratings of various leading contenders for 2010 gubernatorial race in both parties. And while the Chronicle wants to make this an “omg DiFi is the favorite” and “ha ha – Newsom sucks” story, the two most important things the poll actually tells us are:

1. DiFi has very high unfavorability ratings among Democratic contenders, and

2. Nobody – and I mean nobody – knows a thing about the Yacht Party potentials, except that they don’t like them.

Let’s take this in order. First, the Dems:

Name Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
Dianne Feinstein 50% 39% 11%
Jerry Brown 34 34 32
Antonio Villaraigosa 28 33 39
John Garamendi 27 20 53
Gavin Newsom 25 41 34
Jack O’Connell 10 16 74

Among Dems only Gavin Newsom has higher unfavorables, but not by much, and since this poll was taken right before the election – when Newsom was getting pounded in the press and on the airwaves by the Yes on 8 campaign – this may be a low point for Newsom.

That makes the 39% unfavorable figure for Feinstein rather significant. Sure, she has the highest favorable rating – 50% – of anyone in the field regardless of party, but that’s not a great figure for such an established politician. As we’ve noted before, her numbers among Dems aren’t so hot either. I don’t see much basis for a DiFi inevitability argument, which the Chronicle is trying to get started.

Jerry Brown has a lot of room to grow, since much of that 32% “no opinion” are probably younger Californians who (like me) were born late in or after his previous terms as governor.

Antonio Villaraigosa has to be considered a sleeper here. At 39% “no opinion” that gives him room to grow as well. He has been building a solidly progressive reputation over the last year, coming out strong against Prop 8 and leading the fight for mass transit in LA (seriously, getting to 2/3 with a sales tax for rail in LA County is a major achievement). As Brian noted a few weeks ago, his endorsements were the closest match to our own. He is also making a high profile link with Barack Obama, serving on his economic advisory team. If you want to run for governor, it is a damn smart move to link yourself to a popular president who won CA by 24 points.

And what of the Yacht Party contenders? They have Bill Simon written all over them:

Name Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
Meg Whitman 17% 16% 67%
Tom Campbell 14 13 73
Steve Poizner 10 14 76

Even with enormous unknown ratings, none of them have a net favorability rating outside the margin of error, and Steve Poizner already has a significant unfavorability rating that will only grow once his links to voter registration fraud get a wider airing. The Chronicle article promotes Meg Whitman as a breakout star, but I’m not seeing it here. All California voters will need to hear is that she’s a Republican and that she was an advisor to the McCain campaign and that may be enough to torpedo her.

The only Republican who might have a snowball’s chance is Tom Campbell, the moderate Republican, but he didn’t fare well in a statewide race in 2000 (losing to DiFi). Of course it’s highly unlikely that the “down with the ship” Yacht Party primary voters will vote for a moderate like Campbell.

This goes to show that the 2010 governor’s race may well be decided in the June primary, which should be one of the most interesting primary fights we’ve seen in this state in a long, long, LONG time.