Tag Archives: CA-44

Another day, another Republican lawbreaker (Ken Calvert this time)

Not even the holiday can stop the inexorable march of revelations in the GOP culture of corruption:

The Jurupa Community Services District violated state law when it sold 4 acres of public land to Rep. Ken Calvert and his investment partners without first offering it to other public agencies — including the local park district that wanted it, the Riverside County grand jury concluded in a report released Tuesday.

The grand jury recommends that the water and sewer agency turn over the $1.2 million it pocketed from the sale, minus costs, to the Jurupa Area Recreation and Park District.

The grand jury was mainly concerned with the actions of the water and sewer agency and not Rep. Calvert.  But Calvert was a willing participant in what a grand jury has now called a crime, and whether or not he will be legally culpable is a bit besides the point.  The only associates to Republicans in this day and age are criminals.  And the only way those criminals are vindicated is through Presidential clemency.

CA-44: Someone’s Keeping an Eye on Calvert

Ever notice this? I recently discovered this fantastic blog that’s covering Creepy Ken Calvert. Eye on Calvert is doing a great job covering everything from the infamous 1993 prostitute incident to all the creepy lobbyist connections to all the global warming denying. You just have to see it all to believe it all!

So why is this blog up and running? Here’s a good explanaton:

Ken is corrupt and it is our responsiblity to make sure everyone knows and force the hand of the GOP to get this man out of any position of power. I will post what we find and repost what others have contributed — all in an effort to show more and more what Kennie boy is all about.

Oh, and mistersmith is already doing a great job at this! If we really want to get rid of Creepy Ken next year, we need to get the message out on just how creepy he really is. And what better way to get the message out than to blog it, and let the message spread out through the internets. And hopefully, voters in Orange and Riverside Counties will find it, and they’ll then know what to do.

So what are you waiting for? If you’re in or near the 44th District in Southern California, and you want to learn more about one of the CREEPIEST REEPS in our area, go see Eye on Calvert. It will really open up your eyes!

Funding California Challengers and Looking Forward

Last week I ran down the unused money from last year’s unopposed and underopposed California members of Congress.  It was a long list. 22 districts held by Democrats fielded no Republican challenger who met a very low bar of fundraising legitimacy.  Really not impressive, but really not surprising either.  So what about the flipside?  How did Democrats do in going after Republicans?

Democrats left only one California seat unopposed, and failed to raise money in one other.  Of the 21 Republican-held seats, only 4 qualified as as unopposed or underopposed (challenger raising less than $25,000).  It suggests two things to me.  One, Democrats are already doing a pretty good job of funding candidates in red districts (although there’s still room to improve of course), and two, that strong funding only goes so far given the way these districts are drawn.  So as I would be cautioning anyways, fundraising is only one piece of the puzzle.  It still takes the right candidate in the right context.

Warning: I get long-winded on the flip

Republicans held 21 districts going into the 2006 elections, and faced the following challenges by the dollars:

CA-02 Sekhon $193,582
CA-03 Durston $308,664
CA-04 Brown $1,711,967
CA-11 McNerney $2,461,329 (pickup)
CA-19 Cox $688,175
CA-21 Haze $152,530
CA-22 Beery $27,206
CA-24 Martinez $134,371
CA-25 Rodriguez $207,844
CA-26 Matthews $54,484
CA-40 Hoffman $143,706
CA-41 Contreras $0
CA-42 Unopposed
CA-43 Folkens $17,104
CA-44 Vandeberg $8,668
CA-45 Roth $725,020
CA-46 Brandt $77,764
CA-48 Young $435,083
CA-49 Criscenzo $90,050
CA-50 Busby $3,634,467
CA-52 Rinaldi $80,480

The infrastructure clearly exists to support a full slate of well-funded Democrats in California.  Indeed, on top of the above numbers was the more than $6 million that un- and under- challenged CA Dems had left over after last year.  That’s a lot of Democratic money just at the congressional level ready to roll.  I bring this up primarily in the context of discussions that have taken place here at Calitics as well as in other corners of the Internet regarding the distribution of funds and the virtues of various plans to standardize said funds.

So at the risk of starting an actual conversation here, I’d like to throw open the floor to suggestions as to how best to harness this monetary strength.  I think it’s great that there’s so much money out there and that it’s already being used to mount legitimate campaigns in tough Republican districts.  The capacity and the willingness to fight it out against long odds is already in place and that’s encouraging.  So what’s the next step?  How do we work to fill every district with a strong candidate who will use that money effectively?

Despite my track record of hearing crickets when I ask for feedback and suggestions, I think this is an open question that deserves a discussion (perhaps one that lasts all…weekend…).  California is a huge state and the manpower to investigate every race doesn’t exist here.  Even if it did, the subjectivity would turn some people off.  So I think that instead it may be that, as a community (not just a community of Front Pagers), we should be identifying and seeking out relationships with pre-existing grassroots organizations in these districts where we, quite frankly, don’t know much.

As has been discussed in several different forums, blogs serve several purposes.  Not least among these purposes is being a megaphone for the issues of existing grassroots organizations.  I know that members of Calitics have made and continue to make strides in reaching out to communities that may otherwise not be heard from online, and I’m encouraged by some of the progress that’s been made in this regard.  My question to the readers in general though is how best to bring the insights of these groups into the collective wisdom of the site.

Put shortly for anyone who skimmed to the bottom: What candidates do we want, how do we find them, and how do we get the right money to them once it happens?  This isn’t a new discussion, but it isn’t one that’s over either.

CA-04, CA-44: Defenders of Wildlife Getting Involved?

(And if you’re interested in getting rid of Creepy Ken Calvert, check out Bill Hedrick’s DFA page. He’s the first Democrat who’s announced in the 44th, and he seems to be a good progressive. I guess we’ll see if we have a challenger to take on this OFFENDER of wildlife in SoCal. : ) – promoted by atdleft)

You all might remember how Richard Pombo’s exit from the House was given a boost by a coalition of environmentalists calling themselves the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund.  They created ads and mailers bashing Pombo’s shoddy record of protecting our natural resources and were quite successful.

They’ve now turned their attentions north to CA-04 and John Doolittle.  In fact, they’re releasing a radio ad attacking Doolittle for his repeated denials of the existence of global warming.  The ads, located at Headinthesand.org, have also been customized for other Western state global warming deniers like CA-44’s Ken Calvert, Arizona’s Rick Renzi, New Mexico’s Steve Pearce, and Nevada’s Dean Heller.

Here’s Doolittle:

Calvert:
powered by ODEO
The mini-sites on Doolittle and Calvert have a lot of information like their enviromental legislative scorecards, news updates, and total campaign contributions from industries like oil, automotive, and electric utilities.  You can also take action by sending a constituent letter.

I love when opponents are defined early.  Clearly global warming will continue to be a major issue in 2008, and the Defenders of Wildlife are placing corrupt and vulnerable members like Calvert and Doolittle squarely in the denial camp.  The fact that they are jumping aboard suggests that they see real potential in both of these races.

(P.S. As the end of Q2 nears, you’re going to hear us asking you to donate to Charlie Brown’s campaign a lot, so why don’t you just go to the ActBlue page right now and get it off your to-do list?)

CA House Races Roundup – June 2007

Surprisingly enough, considering it’s 17 months out, there’s actually been some measure of news in the California delegation, most of it pretty good for Democrats.  Let’s take a look at the top pickup opportunities for Democrats, as well as the top hold races.  We’ll start with the seats that may be contested (there are only two):

1) CA-37: Not technically a contested seat, but this is the open seat vacated by the late Juanita Millender-McDonald, which will have an open primary on June 26 and a general election (if nobody gets 50%) a couple months thereafter.  There are debates this week (Friday) and next (June 14), but so far this has been a battle of endorsements.  The CA Democratic Party and the League of Conservation Voters have backed State Senator Jenny Oropeza; the Legislative Black Caucus and the CA Federation of Labor of LA County have backed Assemblywoman Laura Richardson.  I do believe that Richardson’s endorsements probably mean more on the ground; of course, there’s also Millender-McDonald’s daughter, Valerie McDonald, who some believe will “split the black vote” and hand the primary to Oropeza.  This is a very safe Democratic seat, so the winner of the primary on the Democratic side is all but assured to be the next Congressman.

2) CA-11 (McNerney): Antiwar advocates were pleased with Rep. McNerney’s vote on the Iraq funding bill.  Former Assemblyman Dean Andal has announced that he’ll run for the seat.  Obviously, the first re-elect is the toughest, so McNerney will have a fight on his hands here, whether against Andal or somebody else.  However, I don’t think that attacking McNerney by attacking Nancy Pelosi, which the NRCC has done in recent radio ads, is going to work, considering the Speaker is more popular than Bush as well as previous House Speakers like Newt Gingrich.

Pickup chances over on the flip…

OK, on to the Republicans.  I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup.  I’m also adding the “Boxer number,” an excellent system for measuring districts given to me by a reader whose name escapes me.  Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is.  If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote.  Anything over 50, obviously, is good.

1) CA-04 (Doolittle).  Last month: 1.  Boxer number: 40.  John Doolittle’s stayed out of the courthouse thus far, but he’s clearly damaged goods and the GOP knows it.  A number of prominent Republicans have made waves about challenging Doolittle in the primary, including Air Force reservist Eric Egland, a former Doolittle supporter.  Schwarzenegger flack and former Bush-Cheney campaign guy Steve Schmidt apparently has his support.  In the article, he calls Charlie Brown a “Cindy Sheehan Democrat,” which is ludicrous on several levels, but undeniably more effective in that reliably Republican district than we may think.  Doolittle believes that he still has majority support, but then again he thinks rogue Democrats in the Justice Department are conspiring against him.  Charlie Brown still has a better chance against Doolittle than a fresh face.

2) CA-26 (Dreier).  Last month: 2.  Boxer number: 48.  Not much new to report here.  David Dreier is the ranking member of the Rules Committee and his name comes up on occasion, but he’s been pretty mum about his low fundraising totals.  Like almost all Republicans, he voted to fund Bush’s war, saying “We cannot and will not abandon our mission just as real progress is starting to be made.”  I would think a decent campaign could make some hay out of that remark.  Declared Democratic opponent Russ Warner has sent out fundraising letters, but hasn’t been incredibly visible at this early stage.

3) CA-41 (Lewis).  Last month: 9.  Boxer number: 43.  Obviously, the big story is Robert “Douchebag of Liberty” Novak’s leak (he’s used to those) that Jerry Lewis won’t seek re-election, which would make this an open seat.  Of course, it would still lean to the GOP in this fairly red district, but an open seat will at least give Democrats the opportunity to find a candidate and force the other side to put in some resources.  Lewis’ people have denied the report that he’s retiring.  I previously speculated that Lewis may be wanting out of the Congress to defend himself in a long-dormant corruption investigation, now that the hiring of a new US Attorney for Los Angeles, a fiercely independent former DA, is imminent.  We’re still waiting for attorney Tim Prince to jump into this race.

4) CA-24 (Gallegly).  Last month: 4.  Boxer number: 47.  Novak also mentioned Elton Gallegly in his report:

District 24: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) decided to retire last cycle for health reasons, only to change his mind at the last minute and run. California Republicans continue to wonder what his ’08 plans will be. The congressman may not be sure himself.

Gallegly’s probably safe if he runs, but nobody really knows what will happen.  An open seat means a pretty good pickup opportunity relative to the others.

5) CA-50 (Bilbray).  Last month: 3.  Boxer number: 48.  What surprised me was that the Boxer number was so high in a district everyone calls “hard right.”  Brian Bilbray has been demagoguing the immigration issue of late, which for all I know works in this district.  Michael Wray, the former Francine Busby staffer who looks to be running here, hasn’t been very visible this month.

6) CA-42 (Miller).  Last month: 5.  Boxer number: 41.  As reported at Trash Dirty Gary, Miller has tried to shift the blame for his ethical troubles by blaming the cities and counties he represents, in a roundabout way.  This tactic was blasted in an op-ed by the Daily Bulletin.

Caught in the fallout from recommending legislation two years ago that would advance the projects of a major campaign contributor, Rep. Gary Miller now says he plans to tighten the process.

Only instead of dealing directly with that issue, the Brea Republican is going to start requiring that all cities and counties that seek federal aid from his office certify that the request will benefit the community, and not a specific individual, organization or business entity.

That’s good. We would hope that government agencies making appropriations requests would be doing so on behalf of public constituents.

But Miller’s attempt to turn things around by putting the certifiction burden on cities and counties seems like political subterfuge, at best.

People are on to this guy.  Now there just needs to be a dynamic candidate who can breathe some life into the Democratic organizations in that district and force Miller to play defense.  Stay tuned…

7) CA-45 (Bono).  Last month: 8.  Boxer number: 49.  Mary Bono continues to focus on tangential issues while voting in lockstep with the Republican leadership.  The Boxer number here suggests that there’s an opportunity if there’s a good candidate.  None has yet materialized.

8) CA-44 (Calvert).  Last month: 10.  Boxer number: 45.  Ken Calvert got some negative publicity when he took over for John Doolittle on the House Appropriations Committee, despite his own corruption issues.  Conservative blog RedState vowed to wage war on him, but that hasn’t seemed to go anywhere.  So we’ll see if this gains any traction.

9) CA-25 (McKeon).  Last month: 6.  Boxer number: 45.  Not much to report here at all.  If Buck McKeon runs again, he’s very likely to win.

10) CA-52 (open seat).  Last month: 7.  Boxer number: 44.  Despite it being an open seat, I don’t expect to see anyone beat Duncan Hunter’s son while he’s serving in Iraq.  He might not actually live in the district (scroll down and you see that Hunter for President press releases describe his son as living in Boise, Idaho), but that hasn’t stopped anyone else, like Brian Bilbray, from winning.

My theory that two pickups would be nice, and three great, still stands.

As usual, if you think I’ve got something wrong or am missing information, enlighten me in the comments.

Why Care About Corruption?

(Cross-posted at Trash Dirty Gary and Ditch Crazy Dana)

OK, so perhaps people in Southern California are finally starting to notice the immense corruption of members of Congress like Gary Miller, Ken Calvert, and Dana Rohrabacher. However, these everyday citizens and typical voters wonder how all this corruption applies to their typical everyday lives.

Why should they care about whatever Gary Miller did with some Lewis Group company in Upland? Why should they care about some land that Ken Calvert owned near March Air Force Base that just happened to benefit from Ken Calvert’s earmarks? Why should they care about Dana Rohrabacher’s Hollywood deals? How does any of this matter to people’s everyday lives?

Follow me after the flip for more…

When all else fails, voters often choose the party of their choice by default. And though the Republican Party is becoming less attractive nationwide, a good plurality of voters in this area still identify themselves as Republican. They still think the GOP is the party of low taxes and fiscal responsibility. They pretty much set their political compass to autopilot, and they just don’t have time to think too much about some silly politics in Washington.

And after all, who has the time to pay attention to these crazy political scandals? Who has time to drop everything in between the PTA meeting and the kids’ soccer game, after a hard day of work and before that fancy dinner that’s supposed to impress the new client, just to learn more about politics? Why does any of this matter?

That’s the challenge here. In order for us to defeat these corrupt Republicans, we have to get our family, friends, and neighbors to realize how all of this corruption is personally affecting them. We have to let them know that all these earmarks that go to these pet projects that just happen to be near their real estate holdings mean money that’s NOT being spent on real efforts to relieve traffic, such as improving local freeways and federal aid for commuter rail. We have to let them know that when these members of Congress try to weaken environmental laws, they are just taking away the parks and open space that we all love to hike through, bike through, and camp at, just so that they can make a little more money on their development projects. We have to make that personal connection, and make these folks realize that all that corruption in Washington really is making life more difficult for them at home in Fountain Valley and Mission Viejo and San Clemente.

That’s the key here. We have to show to them that all this federal money being spent on these shady earmarks is money that’s NOT being spent on the things that we care about. That money should go to our schools. That money should go to our parks. That money should go to our roads. Basically, that money should actually be spent toward helping our communities. These members of Congress should NOT spend that money, OUR MONEY, on projects solely meant to enrich themselves. They’re wasting our time, and they’re wasting our money. That’s why we need to kick them out of Congress!

If we want to defeat Dirty Gary and Crazy Dana and Creepy Ken next year, we need to get these voters in these districts out of their comfort zone of apathy, and force them to see the futility of sending these scumbags back to Congress. We need to get these voters to start caring again. After all, what we don’t like about politics will never go away if we never do anything to change it.

Which Corrupt Republican is Most Despised By Republicans?

Thursday:

In a telephone interview Thursday morning, [KFBK radio host Tom] Sullivan said a number of Republicans are eying Doolittle’s seat, he among them.

“Vultures are circling,” Sullivan said. “They are all over the place. There are a number of people who would love to run.”

Among those frequently mentioned are Assemblyman Ted Gaines and former state Sen. Rico Oller, whom [Dan] Lungren beat in the Republican primary for Ose’s seat.

Friday:

Grass-roots conservatives are railing against House Republican leaders for tapping Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) for the appropriations seat vacated by fellow California Republican Rep. John Doolittle after the FBI raided his home in Northern Virginia.

Today:

But I will tell you this — Jerry Lewis SHOULD NOT be in Congress anymore.  This is something that I have said to FR readers before — and I will say it again.  The Republican Party need only look in the mirror if we are unable to 'police ourselves' when it comes to understanding how we could have a majority in both Houses of Congress, and hold the Presidency, and still preside over unprecedented growth in federal government spending.

Is it any wonder the GOP is suffering from an excitement gap?

Whoa! Conservatives Going After Calvert!

Earlier today I wrote that Ken Calvert got John Doolittle’s “token corrupt Californian” seat on the House Appropriations Committee.  What I didn’t know is that this has raised the ire… of the right?

I care a lot about the House of Representatives, I care a lot about our members and once someone is ethically challenged and gets in trouble it effects all of us. … I appreciate the high ethical standards that [Boehner] has set … but I believe the bar was lowered today when our conference chose to vote Ken Calvert onto the Appropriations Committee.

That was Ray LaHood of Illinois, going after one of his colleagues in the media.  And it doesn’t stop there.  RedState has declared war on Calvert.  Minority Leader John Boehner is getting a lot of heat from organized phone campaigns.

Wow.  Do they not know that half their delegation is just as corrupt?  (Incidentally, Calvert’s going to be moving up in my next House target list.  Do we have a candidate?)

Will Congress Stop the Speeding to Trestles?

({This is Part 9 of my special report on the proposed extension of the 241 Toll Road to San Onofre State Beach (aka Trestles). If you’d like, you can find the other stories in the “Speeding Our Way to Trestles” series here. As the debate heats up over Trestles and the 241, I’d like to go in depth and examine all the issues involved… And I’d love for you to come along for the ride as we explore what can be done to relieve traffic in South Orange County AND Save Trestles Beach. Enjoy! : ) } – promoted by atdleft)

Oh, my! Will Washington now enter the fracas that is the proposed Foothill-South 241 Extension to Trestles? Look at what I just saw in today’s OC Register:

A proposed toll road through parkland that has become Orange County’s most explosive environmental controversy could be jeopardized – and perhaps even killed – if a small amendment added to a defense authorization bill is approved today.

The Foothill South toll road, which would bisect San Onofre State Beach park and cut through highly sensitive natural habitat, has pitted environmental activists against residents who say the road is vital to prevent south county gridlock as populations rise.

Rep. Susan Davis, D-San Diego, who is sponsoring the amendment, believes she has the votes to repeal a 1999 law that authorized the military to grant the Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency the right to build a road on 340 acres of parkland.

Authorization from the Navy is necessary before the toll road, which must clear a variety of other regulatory hurdles, can be built.

So can this mean the end of Foothill-South? Follow me after the flip for more…

The House Armed Services Committee will likely be voting on the Fiscal Year 2008 Defense Authorization bill, and Rep. Susan Davis is hoping that her amendment is included in that bill.

“She’s heard from constituents in the district who enjoy the parks and the beaches and have a lot of concerns about the process,” said Aaron Hunter, Davis’ press secretary.

In essence, the amendments would revoke congressional authorization for the military to convey building rights to the toll road agency. It would also erase previous legislation intended to insulate the toll road from state and federal laws that could prevent its construction.

Activists who were aware of Davis’ effort Tuesday said they did not believe her amendment would kill the toll road project but would simply create a “level playing field,” forcing the agency to obey the same laws as other road builders.

“This abuse must stop,” said James Birkelund, a staff attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council in Santa Monica. “The agency should comply with federal and state laws.”

Davis’ staff said her action wouldn’t prohibit construction of the road. It would “just have to follow the same rules and regulations that all other state projects do,” Hunter said.

But apparently, TCA is not happy with this. They are convinced that Davis is conspiring to kill the toll road. And they are livid!

“It takes away from the Navy the ability to grant us an easement,” said Rob Thornton, an attorney who often represents the tollway agency. “I think it would kill the road in this location. The state obtained the lease with the understanding that the Navy reserved the ability to approve the construction of roads.” […]

“What she’s trying to do is kill the road,” said Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona. “The millions and millions of dollars that have been spent on environmental studies to advance this would be for naught.”

Well, why did all that money have to be spent in the first place? All Calvert had to do was have one of his staffers read the Coastal Act. It would have been much cheaper, and they could have determined immediately that the proposed path of Foothill-South violates California state law.

And again, isn’t it obvious that the proposed path of this toll road would drive us to complete environmental catastrophe? It would alter the sediment flow of San Mateo Creek, thereby destroying the world-famous waves of Trestles. It would destroy the habitat of at least seven endangered species, including the California gnatcatcher, the Southern California Steelhead Trout, and the Arroyo toad. Their humble abode would be gone if TCA were to have its way. And oh yes, wouldn’t this violate a certain federal Endangered Species Act?

All Susan Davis wants to do is ensure that TCA is following the letter of the law when it comes to this Foothill-South 241 Extension. Why would they feel so threatened by this? Oh yeah, that’s why.

Early Projections: CA House Races

There are no Senate seats up in California in 2008, and no statewide offices up for election, so the biggest seats outside of the Presidency will be in the House of Representatives.  While we’re 18 months out, I thought I’d give a snapshot of what races are most inviting for a Democratic pickup.

I’m going to concern myself solely with pickup opportunities, because the only realistic possibility of a GOP pickup is in CA-11, and I’m confident that Jerry McNerney and his grassroots army can handle whatever’s thrown at him, plus he’ll have the power of incumbency and the focus of the CDP.  There may be some retirements that would make things interesting (Lantos, Stark, Woolsey), but those are very blue areas.  So let’s look at the best opportunities to add to the Democratic majority:

1) CA-04 (Doolittle): The Doolittle watch continues, and what is most clear is that the best thing for California Republicans would be for Doolittle to just go away.  Charlie Brown has a $200,000 CoH advantage and the taint of the intensifying Abramoff scandal won’t be as easy to wash off the second time around.  If it’s a fresh challenger and an open seat, Brown will still have a higher name ID, but it would be more difficult.

2) CA-26 (Dreier): Hekebolos has mentioned David Dreier’s fundraising troubles.  Plus, as a member of the GOP Leadership, he can be very much tied to their failures over the years.  And the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) in the district is only +4 Republican, comparable to McNerney’s district, and has been shrinking over the years.  It’s the third-closest PVI district in the entire state, and yet Dreier is anything but a moderate.  Russ Warner ran in the 2006 primary (losing to 2004 candidate Cynthia Matthews, who then raised almost no money for the general) and will be running again, and appears to have the right makeup to pull off this upset.

3) CA-50 (Bilbray): The replacement for the Duke-Stir has not distinguished himself (does Bilbray live in that district yet?), and Howie Klein, at least, is intrigued by the potential candidacy of Michael Wray, a former Busby campaign worker and rocket scientist.  I think he’d have a somewhat better chance than Francine Busby.  This would be tough, but not a hopeless district.

4) CA-24 (Gallegly): Elton Gallegly maintains that he’s running.  He tried to retire in 2006, and then abruptly returned to the race because California election law mandated that his name would appear on the ballot regardless.  He eventually defeated Jill Martinez with 62% of the vote.  The word is that Martinez is running again.  Ventura County Democrats have done an amazing job turning around voter registration numbers in the region of late, adding to hope that this could be winnable even against the incumbent.  The PVI is R+5.

5) CA-42 (Miller): See above.  Not hopeless but tough.  The fact that it’s more Republican than CA-50 is balanced out by the fact that Gary Miller is a thieving scumbag who is under investigation by the feds.  Unlike last year, there will be a candidate, and the race is definitely on the CDP’s radar screen.  If we win this one, it’ll be a very good year.

6) CA-25 (McKeon): Buck McKeon is always a threat to retire, and this is a R+7 PVI, so it’s not impossible.  And this is one of those seats, in northeastern LA and San Bernardino Counties, that we have to start competing in, because the job growth in the inland areas of Southern California are outstripping the coasts. Robert Rodriguez did a decent job here in 2006 (McKeon won 60%-36%).  I hope he runs again.

7) CA-52 (open seat): The only Republican open seat to date, but it’s almost not open at all, because Duncan Hunter is trying to give the seat to his son, also named Duncan Hunter, and he’s likely to be fighting in Iraq during the election.  Kind of hard to compete against someone with that circumstance.

8) CA-45 (Bono): David Roth raised a decent enough amount of money in 2006 to at least make Mary Bono sweat.  The PVI is only R+3.  But it was one of the lowest-turnout races in the entire state.  If we can excite people out in the desert, ya never know.

9) CA-41 (Lewis): The Jerry Lewis investigation has gone cold, but the fact that Debra Yang appears to have been bought off the probe by the law firm representing Lewis means that the scandal might have a different set of legs.  And again, this is a part of Southern California where we need to have a presence; eventually there will be more and more people in this region, and probably more seats.  And the fact that they are likely to be coming from liberal Los Angeles means it’s an opportunity to get some infrastructure going.

10) CA-44 (Calvert): This district has actually less of a PVI (R+6) than CA-25.  And Calvert has some earmark and lobbying problems.  And the guy was caught with a prostitute in his car back in 1993.  So the atmospherics are there.  But Democrats have done little in this district.  His challenger last year raised 8 grand.  Total.  And he STILL got 38% of the vote!  It’s time to give this guy a real challenge.

Realistically, 2 pickups would be a really good tally; 3 would be amazing.  But the goal should be getting some of these incumbents to around 55%.