Former Treasury official looks to take on Brown

by Brian Leubitz

Who, you may ask. Well, indeed Neel Kashkari intends to be the next governor of the great state of California. Kashkari, the former head of the TARP program, announced today that he will take on Brown (presumably) in the June election (and November if he gets that far.)

Former U.S. Treasury official Neel Kashkari announced Tuesday that he is running for governor of California, staking his campaign on his ability to create jobs and improve public schools.

“Here today, on this stage, I am announcing that I’m running for governor of California,” Kashkari told a few hundred people at a luncheon at Cal State Sacramento. “That’s my platform, jobs and education. That’s it. That’s why I’m running for governor of California.”(LA Times)

Fortunately for Kashkari, the caption writers of the LA Times are a bit out of date when they write under a photo that he is attempting to win the GOP nomination. Because, let’s be realistic here, he would have a much tougher route if that was his path. Instead, given that we now work in a Top-2 system, Kashkari will attempt to woo enough Republicans, independents and a smattering of Democrats in the June election to be the second highest vote getter and move on to November.

It is probably a better path than the one that Meg Whitman had to trod in 2010. She had to cater to the far right to get her party’s nomination, say some stuff about immigration she probably didn’t believe and all that. Kashkari can hope that the nativist vote won’t overwhelm the “moderate” coalition that he aims to build. Of course, in Tim Donnelly, the nativists have just the candidate to rally around.  Kashkari will have to hope that he can build a big war chest from the corporate Republicans to build an operation that can deal with the right wing ground game. It is doable, but a strong showing from Brown in gathering independent support could mean that Donnelly is the man that gets through June.

And even if he can get through June, what then? Brown is still sitting at an impressive 58% approval rating in the last Field poll. That includes 58% approval among independents, a figure that could go higher if the economy continues to recover. Brown has a big chunk of cash sitting in the bank, and an impressive operation in a Democratic state. In other words, unless Brown opts out in a stunning turn of events, he is a strong favorite to retain the job. Kashkari will do well to replicate the results of Whitman in 2010. (Spoiler: Whitman lost by 13 points after spending $140 million)

UPDATE: A tip of the hat to the Chronicle’s Carla Marinucci for checking out his voting records. Turns out that he’s not doing so well on that front:

Former Treasury Department official Neel Kashkari, a moderate Republican who is expected to run for governor, has failed to vote in nearly half the elections in which he was eligible since 1998 – including the 2012 presidential primary and the 2005 special election called to decide the reform agenda of then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger – public records show.

Oh, that’s ok, no big deal. I mean, you are only trying to get millions of people to show up for you, what’s a measly voting record anyway? Voting isn’t nearly as powerful as the big checks, right?

At any rate, Kashkari has a little baggage to open up the race. Never an auspicious way to start.

Former LG struggled with fundraising and staff changes

by Brian Leubitz

St. Abel Maldonado struggled during his campaign for governor. To put it mildly. He didn’t really rake in the bucks, and went through a complete staff change. Of course, there was also the issue that most of the GOP loyalists pretty much loathe the guy. Apparently now he’s had enough:

Abel Maldonado, whose campaign for governor sputtered for months and failed to gain the support of Republican donors, has told other Republicans he will drop out of the race today, sources said. …

Then, after finishing the first half of last year in debt, Maldonado and his original team of advisers split. Maldonado assembled a new group of advisers, including Ron Nehring, the former California Republican Party chairman, and he presented the team at the state party’s convention last fall.(SacBee)

But never you worry, Tim Donnelly is still in the race, and he’s totally for reals about his fundraising. Or well, at least he had enough to buy a milkshake at In ‘N Out and still be able to afford a burger too.

However, rumors continue to swirl that former TARP administrator Neel Kashkari will enter the race soon. He has hired some advisors, but he’ll need to raise a lot of cash quickly to be competitive with a governor that had $10million in the bank in mid 2013 and a 58% approval rating in the most recent Field poll.

Abel Maldonado Wildly Misses Mark in His Criticism of the Prison Realignment Policy

by Brian Leubitz

By any estimation, Governor Brown is in a tough spot politically and managerially with the issues surrounding the prisons. As Attorney General, he fought the federal courts on capacity and healthcare standards. As Governor,  he’s been forced to actually implement the reduction of population by those judges. And he’s been fighting it all the way.

But, in realignment, he probably struck on the path of least resistance to state prison population. It allows a significant reduction in population without actually setting all of the prisoners free. But that’s not what Abel Maldonado sees.

Maldonado, flanked by Fontana Mayor Acquanetta Warren and Erin Runnion, whose daughter Samantha was kidnapped and murdered in a high-publicized 2002 crime, argued in favor of an as-yet-unwritten ballot measure that would repeal A.B. 109, the law creating the state’s realignment policy, which Maldonado referred to as “early release.”

“The legislature and more importantly, the governor, won’t fix early release,” said Maldonado, a former lieutenant governor and legislator who represented communities in Santa Barbara County.(Daily Bulletin)

Abel Maldonado simply sees it as “early release” and plans on running some sort of initiative to address the issue. How it will address the issue while maintaining compliance with the federal rulings is anybody’s guess. It’s hard to see the ToughOnCrime act to be anything other than posturing for the 2014 race for governor. And he’s searching for Willie Horton. Desperately. Calitics diarist smoker1 pointed that out last week.

This week, Abel Maldonado held a news conference announcing a statewide effort to repeal the realignment program.  Proof of the dangers of realignment: the heinous murder of Mary Beth Blaskey.  Jerome Anthony Rogers has been arrested and charged with the murder.  Rogers, 57, has a lengthy criminal record, but was last in prison in 2003.  

Got it?  The last time he was in prison was 2003 and Maldonado is using this case as an example of how realignment is failing.  Realignment came last year, not 10 years ago. Why would Maldonado use a case that has nothing to do with realignment to promote an effort to repeal realignment?  Because there is no such case within the realignment universe.

The thing about the California prison system is that there is a lot of shades of gray. Way more than 50, it turns out. There are some hardened criminals, some murderers, some rapists and the like, that will probably never be rehabilitated to the point that we’ll want them on the streets. However, the total number in that category are a minuscule portion of an enormous system. The recidivism rate in our system was hovering around 70% for a while, dipping down to 65% in 2012. But considering that the national level is below 45%, there is still a ways to go.

But much of that increased rate is about parole violations. Increasing parole flexibility and working with former prisoners to increase the percentage of better outcomes could go a long way to reducing some of that recidivism.  Some of that has already been happening in a few counties, but there is a lot more work to be done.

Realignment itself laid a heavy burden on counties, and this is where the changes haven’t really been as successful as we would like. They were supposed to get reimbursed for much of that burden, and while they will see additional revenues from the state to pay for the increased expenditures, it seems unlikely that they will ever be made truly whole.  However, Brown knows what he’s doing. Counties should be held more directly responsible for the prison population. Allowing prosecutors to simply lock away a criminal and forget about them has a perverse effect on the extreme overcapacity at state prisons.

The entire law enforcement community has begun a process of working to improve efficiency. As prisons have passed higher education spending, this is a conversation long overdue. But these changes can’t come overnight. But we can’t allow our prison budget to overwhelm the general fund, and we can’t build our way out of the prison crisis. We need to reduce the prison population, and that is done through hard work, funding education, including Brown’s effort to increase resources for disadvantaged students, and reducing the population of reoffenders.

Maldonado wants to simply revert back to the failed ToughOnCrime policies because that just might be an issue that scares voters. It’s simplistic and cynical.  

Looks to take on popular governor

by Brian Leubitz

Abel Maldonado has had a rough go over the last few years. After getting appointed to Lt. Gov., he lost to Gavin Newsom for that job, and then lost to Lois Capps for a newly drawn Congressional seat.

Yet, he still represents something different for Republicans, which keeps people intrigued. He is a Latino and offers diversity that is otherwise absent from the GOP. But perhaps more than that, he has shown a flair for the dramatic moderate. Working with his fellow dramatic moderate, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, he swooped in several times to push the budget process forward. And so despite the recent losses, he gets plenty of coverage and attention.

All that makes him an intriguing candidate for the 2014 governor’s race.  What makes it more interesting for Maldonado is that he wouldn’t have to make it through a Republican primary, a hurdle that might just be too high for a perceived moderate. The top-2 system would take care of that. Cue the whispers:

Saying he could “bring a different face” and a new Republican message to California, Maldonado told the Chronicle in an interview that he is strongly mulling the run against three term Democrat not only to strengthen the party, but also to encourage the kind of vibrant two-party political debate that makes for “a better state.”

“I’ve been encouraged publicly, and privately,” he said, to offer a challenge to Brown as the California Republican Party is in such dire straits that it appears the Democrat could easily sail to a fourth term without serious opposition.

“At this point in time, I’m seriously thinking about it,” Maldonado said. “I think I need to decide sooner rather than later.” (Carla Marinucci/SFGate)

Brown has one of the top two spots locked down, unless something seriously bizarre happens between now and next summer. The race for the second spot right now seems to be some third party candidates and Tim Donnelly, the minuteman leader and GOP Assemblyman who was recently cited for bringing a gun to an airport. In other words, the quest to the second spot is still wide open. Donnelly would surely draw some votes from the nativist set, but he really couldn’t win a statewide election.

Brown, however, is quite popular after the success of Prop 30 and its temporary moratorium on the budget crisis. Maldonado carries a lot of baggage into any race at this point, but given the current field, he might just be the GOP’s strongest candidate.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project, Daily Kos, and Democracy for California.

Here I will cover the eight constitutional offices, three State Supreme Court justice confirmations, and nine ballot measures. In the second diary, I will cover the U.S. Senate race and the House races, and in the third the state legislature. I will also combine my regular registration updates within the diaries.

Speaking of registration updates, as you will see in the layout of the statewide registration numbers, Democrats are more pumped up here, adding almost half a million voters to their rolls since 2008. The Republicans in comparison added just 13,000 in the same amount of time. So if you are looking for a lethargic Democratic base, look elsewhere because you won’t find it here!

More info can be found at the 2010 Race Tracker.

Here is the most recent registration data: http://www.sos.ca.gov/election…

Here is the list of candidates that will appear on the ballot: http://www.sos.ca.gov/election…

Statewide Layout

Democrats: 7,531,986 (44.32%)

Republicans: 5,257,669 (30.94%)

Decline to State: 3,427,395 (20.17%)

Others: 776,025 (4.56%)

Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in the case of open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.

D: Democratic

R: Republican

L: Libertarian

G: Green

AI: American Independent

PF: Peace and Freedom

NP: Nonpartisan

SW: Socialist Workers

Race Ratings

Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%

Lean: Margin by 5-10%

Likely: Margin by 10-15%

Strong: Margin by 15-20%

Solid: Margin by more than 20%

Governor: Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) vs. Attorney General Jerry Brown (D), Laura Wells (G), Dale Ogden (L), Chelene Nightingale (AI), Carlos Alvarez (PF), and Lea Sherman (SW-W/I)

Profile: I see no way Whitman can win. Running as an outsider when the current governor, who also ran as an outsider, is leaving office with 20% approval ratings, is a surefire losing strategy. And pissing voters off by running ads nonstop and spending nine-figure sums of money while they’re forced to cut back is not going to help at all. Brown is leading by example, running on a shoestring budget and calling for everyone to sacrifice, meaning no sacred cows. Polls may not yet show it, but in my opinion I think Whitman is finished. In fact, I’ll be very surprised if she even manages to make it a low-teen loss.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Brown (D pickup)

Lieutenant Governor: Interim Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) vs. S.F. Mayor Gavin Newsom (D), Jimi Castillo (G), Pamela Brown (L), Jim King (AI), and C.T. Weber (PF)

Profile: Here we have quasi-incumbent Abel Maldonado, appointed after John Garamendi went to Congress, running to be elected in his own right against Newsom. While Maldonado is moderate for a Republican (though that is not saying much), being closely associated with Arnold is going to be a huge liability, which I do not think he will overcome.

Outlook: Lean Newsom (D pickup)

Attorney General: S.F. DA Kamala Harris (D) vs. L.A. DA Steve Cooley (R), Peter Allen (G), Timothy Hannan (L), Dianne Beall Templin (AI), and Robert J. Evans (PF)

Profile: This is the only statewide race in California I am worried about, and where my theory (that California has just become too Democratic for even a moderate Republican to win barring unusual circumstances) will be put to the test. Cooley is not that bad for a Republican, having had the audacity to stand against popular opinion of issues such as three strikes and Jessica’s Law, though he is also against dispensaries for medical marijuana. Harris is a rising star in Democratic circles, and is a more formidable opponent than any of Cooley’s challengers in the past. The wild card is the big enchilada of L.A. County, where Harris’ name ID is low and she’d need to win by 18-20% to win statewide. I am of course pulling for Harris because I want our bench to stay nice and full for the inevitable retirements of DiFi probably in 2012, Boxer probably in 2016, and for the open governorship in 2014 or 2018; and also because she has courageously stood up to Prop 8, while Cooley pledges to defend it in court.

Outlook: Toss-Up

Secretary of State: SoS Debra Bowen (D) vs. businessman Damon Dunn (R), Ann Menasche (G), Christina Tobin (L), Merton D. Short (AI), and Marylou Cabral (PF)

Profile: Bowen is a lock for reelection.

Outlook: Solid Bowen

Treasurer: Treasurer Bill Lockyer (D) vs. State Senator Mimi Walters (R), Kit Crittenden (G), Edward Teyssier (L), Robert Lauten (AI), and Debra Reiger (PF)

Profile: Lockyer is a lock for reelection.

Outlook: Solid Lockyer

Controller: Controller John Chiang (D) vs. State Senator Tony Strickland (R), Ross Frankel (G), Andy Favor (L), Lawrence Beliz (AI), and Karen Martinez (PF)

Profile: A rematch from 2006, only with Democrats more pumped up, Chiang will win by a wider margin this time around.

Outlook: Strong to Solid Chiang

Insurance Commissioner: State Assemblyman Mike Villines (R) vs. State Assemblyman Dave Jones (D), William Balderston (G), Richard Bronstein (L), Clay Pedersen (AI), and Dina Padilla (PF)

Profile: In California, when a non-damaged Democrat is up against a generic Republican, the Democrat wins. Take it to the bank.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Jones (D pickup)

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Retired Superintendent Larry Aceves (NP) vs. State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson (NP)

Profile: Torlakson voted against Race to the Top and believes parents, teachers, students, and communities alike all need to come together to improve our schools, while Aceves believes that the problem with public schools is the teachers and hedge funds and billionaires should have more control over K-12 education. This will be a close one.

Outlook: Toss-Up

State Supreme Court confirmation – Tani Cantil-Sakauye: Voters are being asked whether to confirm Tani Cantil-Sakauye, Arnold’s pick to replace Chief Justice Ron George. She is seen as uncontroversial, but likely to share Arnold’s views on corporate power.

Outlook: Lean Confirm

State Supreme Court retention – Ming Chin: Chin was in the minority that voted to uphold the state’s ban on marriage equality in 2008, and is one of the most right-wing justices on the state Supreme Court. I want to see him go, but it doesn’t look likely.

Outlook: Likely Retention

State Supreme Court retention – Carlos Moreno: Moreno was the only justice who courageously voted to overturn Prop 8 at the State Supreme Court last year, and has been a reliable vote for equality and so should be voted to be retained.

Outlook: Likely Retention

Ballot Measures: Nine measures will be on the California ballot this fall. Information can be found here: http://www.smartvoter.org/2010… Field has released polls on 19, 23, and 25. http://www.field.com/fieldpoll…

Prop. 19 (Marijuana): If passed, this proposition would legalize the possession and growing of marijuana for personal use of adults 21 years and older, and allow state and local governments to regulate and tax related commercial activities. This proposition winning may make Washington reexamine its own policy towards marijuana, since what happens in California often makes it way to the other side of the country. Polls have shown Yes leading by single digits, so I’ll call 19 a passing proposition.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Lean Pass

Prop. 20 (Redistricting Congressional Districts): This proposition would amend the state Constitution be amended to have the Citizens Redistricting Commission (prop 11 from 2008) redistrict for the U.S. House of Representatives seats. This initiative calls for each district being composed of people of the same income level and people with the same work opportunities, which to me feels like a backdoor to the old bygone Jim Crow ways. And passing this prop while giving free passes to Republican-controlled legislatures in Texas and Florida to gerrymander the hell out of those states is likely to put California at a disadvantage when competing for federal dollars. In addition, there is no way this commission can be held accountable.

My recommendation: NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-up/Lean Fail

Prop. 21 (Vehicle License Surcharge): Establishes an $18 annual vehicle license surcharge to provide funds for maintaining the state parks and wildlife programs, and grants surcharged vehicles free admission to the state parks. Our cash-starved state parks could use the extra funds. In addition, the governor can’t take funds from this coffer when other coffers are low. The tough economy may dampen the chances of this prop passing, though.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 22 (Local Government Funds): Prohibits the state from taking funds used for local government services. It is well-intentioned but flawed. The cities and counties would get an immediate payment of over $1 billion, forcing further cuts to vital public services.

My recommendation: NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 23 (Suspension of AB 32): Backed by Texas oil interests, this prop would suspend AB 32 until unemployment dropped to an unrealistic 5.5% for a whole year and hurt the state’s fledgling green jobs industry, doing the exact opposite of what its backers claim: it would actually kill more jobs than create more jobs. (Here in “business-friendly” Texas, the economic situation is also pretty bad, with unemployment here at its highest level since the late ’80s [and me being unable to find a job to save my life] and an $18 billion deficit for the 2011 budget session, which will make 2003 look like the good old days.) Polls have shown a low double-digit lead for the No side.

My recommendation: NO! NO! NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Likely Fail

Prop. 24 (Corporate Loopholes): A long-overdue measure that would close corporate tax loopholes, reducing the budget deficit by $2 billion.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 25 (Majority Vote on Budget): Another very long-overdue measure that eliminates the ridiculous 2/3rds rule to pass a budget in the state legislature. This prop is passing by double-digits in the polls.

My recommendation: YES! YES! YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Likely Pass

Prop. 26 (Two-Thirds Vote on Fees): Would require two-thirds vote approval for the imposition of certain state and local fees, including those on businesses that adversely impact the local community and environment. The last thing we need is higher vote thresholds.

My recommendation: NO! NO! NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 27 (Redistricting Commission): This proposition eliminates the Citizens Redistricting Commission from Prop 11, which barely passed, suggesting some voters have some doubts about its effectiveness. This commission also gives Republicans much more power than their current share of the population.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

The Governor is off to China, and he’s left his trusty puppet lieutenant in charge of the place.  And look, he even gets to play like he’s important, getting to sign bills and everything!

Maldonado, who is battling San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom in the November election for lieutenant governor, is making arrangements to hold a bill signing ceremony in front of Bell City Hall on Monday, according to an e-mail to that city from one of his staffers. A spokeswoman confirmed Maldonado may sign AB 900, which would refund property taxes overcharged by the city of Bell.

“Should the bill be sent to the governor’s office, the people of Bell deserve to have their money returned to them,” said Erin Shaw, a spokeswoman for Maldonado. “The lieutenant governor will be in Los Angeles on Monday and it makes sense for our staff to put our logistics in place should he be needed to expedite the state’s business.”

Having been appointed lieutenant governor by Schwarzenegger, who is seen as his mentor, it appears Maldonado is getting some assistance from the governor to grab the media spotlight, according to the e-mail, which talks of the governor’s office supplying some of the equipment for the ceremony. (LA Times)

I guess St. Abel is now completely buried the hatchet with the Governor over their little dispute about whether he really loved him or not.  In theory, it isn’t really all that common for Lt. Governors to actually sign legislation, mostly because they are frequently of differing parties in California. But, in this case, St. Abel has so much experience being Arnold’s sock puppet, there really isn’t anything new going on here.  When you see Abel, you might as well see Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And the people of California just loooooove Arnold Schwarzenegger these days, right?