You do not see Flash Report’s Jon Fleischman, who represents nothing if not the internal voice of the California Yacht Party (he’s the Vice Chair, after all), this concerned about a Republican-held seat.  Not every day.

The Democrats have moved the 10th Assembly District near the top of their wish-list, and for good reason.  First, the seat is open, which always makes for a more interesting contest.  Second, a once six-point Republican partisan voter registration advantage has shrunk to just two points.

The 10th District is located in the San Joaquin Valley, split over four counties — El Dorado, Amador, Sacramento and San Joaquin.

Compounding matters for Republican strategists, not only was there a pretty brutal GOP primary contest back in June, but this seat overlaps several U.S. House seats that will likely see action — CD 3 where Dan Lungren is seeking re-election, CD 4 where Tom McClintock is running, and, of course, CD 11 where Dean Andal is trying to take out freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney (this is a top tier seat).

What Fleischman is correctly describing is what I would call the “Carol Shea-Porter effect.”  In 2006, Paul Hodes got a lot of establishment and netroots support in his Congressional race in New Hampshire, while the neighboring Carol Shea-Porter got virtually none.  However, the state of New Hampshire all resides in the same media market.  So Hodes’ ads pummeling his opponent and Republicans in general ended up resonating on Carol Shea-Porter’s side of the district.  In the end, both Democrats won, with Shea-Porter’s victory a major upset.

The same is true for Alyson Huber in AD-10 and her race against Yacht Party member in good standing Jack Sieglock.  With contested elections throughout her area – in CA-11, CA-03 and CA-04 – Huber’s message of change and fighting failed conservative values and ideas will be amplified.  In addition, the GOTV programs from those candidates will snag voters for AD-10 (and Joan Buchanan in AD-15) as well.  With 82% of voters seeing the budget as a major problem, this is a teachable moment for Democrats, who can tie the burdensome 2/3 requirement and Republican ideological intransigence to a state falling behind, and drive home the need for fundamental change.

Sieglock’s bitter primary has given Huber a head start up here.  Even his consultant agrees: “Jack is a very good candidate, but he’s had a tougher road through the primary than his opponent, and that puts us behind.”  Add that to the more sophisticated GOTV program for Democrats this cycle, and AD-10 is well within reach.  With some good bounces, we can get to a 2/3 majority.

I simply have not had the time to do a full update of all the Congressional and legislative campaigns.  And sadly, it doesn’t look like that time will be forthcoming soon.  So I think I’ll do mini-updates where possible.

• CA-46: Debbie Cook has been endorsed by DFA (Democracy for America).  Jim Dean, the Chair of DFA, said in a statement, “Debbie Cook has been a grassroots champion for over 20 years and has a proven record of success in the private sector and as a public servant … Debbie Cook is running because she’s a committed advocate and activist who fights for her constituents and delivers results.”

In the past, DFA has been able to move some resources into districts, so we’ll see if they’re going that route in this race.  DFA has also recently endorsed Bill Hedrick (CA-44).

• CA-26: Russ Warner’s campaign is announcing via email that the DCCC named his race as “one to watch.”  That doesn’t mean they’ll get any money, but it puts them in the queue if the race tightens.  Unfortunately, the DCCC has kind of a deliberate style, where they hoard their money for the races they know are toss-ups, and then wait until the very last minute for these emerging races, sometimes beyond the point at which that money can be effective.  I understand the strategy but it wouldn’t be smart from Warner’s perspective to bank on any help from Washington in his race against David Dreier.  He needs his own resources as well as money from California lawmaker’s PACs.

Which reminds me, California Democrats, it’s time to use it or lose it.  We have a number of races where the challenger can win if they have enough resources, and in the seats where an incumbent has token or no opposition and a huge war chest, that money should not be sitting in an account somewhere.  Help our own candidates!  Expect more pressure on this very soon.

• CA-03: It’s kind of fun watching Dan Lungren try to humina-humina his way out of supporting Prop. 8.  He really has no idea what he’s talking about.  It would be bad enough if a citizen of the state had this atrocious an understanding of basic civics, but this guy is not only a US Representative but a former state Attorney General!

• AD-80: The GOP tried to get Manuel Perez’ occupational status as an “educator” thrown off the ballot, but they failed.  Now he has received the endorsement of the highest-ranking law enforcement official in Imperial County, D.A. Gilbert Otero.  Considering that his opponent, Gary Jeandron, is the former police chief of Palm Springs, I’d consider this endorsement to be significant… UPDATE re: CMR, seems that Gary Jeandron supports “traditional marriage.”  In Palm Springs.  Now, so did Bonnie Garcia, but she was able to win enough in Imperial County to offset it.  Jeandron needs the Palm Springs vote to be huge to win.

I think he just lost, if he hadn’t already.

Even though John Doolittle is not on the ballot this year, his presence in a district that he dominated for years is still important for Republican branding.  Much like in Ohio, where the Tom Noe Coingate scandal spelled doom for all Republican statewide officers in 2006, the stench of scandal around Doolittle has the potential to severely tarnish the Republican brand in CA-04.  And if yesterday’s indictment of former Doolittle aide Kevin Ring is as advertised, which it appears to be, the brand isn’t just tarnished, it’s out in the dumpster:

The indictment adds additional information to Doolittle’s already thick record with Abramoff. According to the indictment, Ring expensed at least one suite for a sports event, eight concert tickets (including tickets for Dixie Chicks and Faith Hill), and five meals totaling more than $2000 for Doolittle. For Doolittle’s staff and his legislative director in particular, Ring bought 29 sports tickets, four concert tickets, nine meals, and one gift from Macy’s.

But Ring and Abramoff were well accommodated in return. As the indictment describes, Doolittle proved himself “a good soldier” by chairing a hearing on the Puerto Rico statehood issue for an Abramoff client and held up his opposition to an anti-gambling bill among other favors.

And Doolittle’s staff was just as helpful. Doolittle’s communications director helped Ring out with tax legislation to “earn [his] Sigs Sushi ;),” and his legislative director was so “tenacious on the appropriations front” that he earned an esteemed compliment from Ring in an email: “You the man.”

Doolittle is referred to (as “Representative 5”) in the indictment over 100 times.  If he’s actually indicted before the election, that will be a boost for Charlie Brown, as the culture of corruption which helped him to a near-upset in 2006 would come back into play.  And with carpetbagger Tom McClintock trying to lie his way to victory (subs. req.), his claim to the ethical high road isn’t all that firm, either.

Before the June primary, Charlie Brown released an internal poll showing him up two points on Tom McClintock.  Three months later, the race has not fundamentally changed:

With less than two months to go before the November election, Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown has released recent polling showing him leading Southern California politician Tom McClintock 43-41, and widening his lead to nearly double digits when voters were presented with the positive attributes of each candidate.

The survey of 500 likely General Election voters was conducted by the Benensen Strategy Group from August 21st-24th, with a margin of error of +/- 4.38%.  

Beyond Brown’s advantage on an initial ballot and following positive contrasts of each candidate, the poll reveals that Brown enjoys a higher net favorability rating than McClintock—despite the fact that McClintock is a better known career politician who has run for Statewide office four times.  Brown, who is a career military officer, has also built a 29 point advantage among Independents while capturing nearly one in five Republican voters.

This lead is obviously within the margin of error, and because the district is so Republican, even that 29-point lead among independents brings us to a tie.  But the fundamentals for Brown are pretty strong.  The right track-wrong track in the district is 23-67.  And after the policy positions are added in, Brown’s lead balloons to eight points, 50-42.

This is going to be about having the money to get the message out and inform the electorate, and having the ground troops to get out the vote.  Turnout will be the major driver of who wins this race.  But those who wrote off Charlie Brown when John Doolittle dropped out were very mistaken.

Today about 20 volunteers congregated at the White Point Nature Preserve in San Pedro to give back to the community as part of Democrats Work and their national day of service.  I know community organizing and community service is teh suck, but that didn’t stop us, for some reason.  Democrats Work is a really great organization that brands service and volunteerism as a Democratic value, part of protecting the commons and creating a more livable world.

We arrived around 9am and immediately set to work clearing tumbleweed from a large area of the preserve, which formerly housed a naval missile silo.  For 2 1/2 hours we picked, pulled and chopped away at the weeds.  And joining us was Congressional candidate in CA-46 Debbie Cook (San Pedro is in her district).  Now, most candidates would spend about 10 minutes there, get their photo-op, shake a few hands and go home.  Cook drove up in her car and spent the entire volunteer session with us.  Pretty interesting.

I talked to Cook a bit about her race against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher.  Obviously, the big hurdle right now is financial.  While Cook has outraised Dana Rohrabacher since she entered the race, she still is at a disadvantage of 3:1 in cash on hand, and until she shows more fundraising strength, outside groups like the DCCC won’t jump in.  It’s kind of a vicious cycle – you can’t get money until you raise money.  Cook has released a TV ad that’s running in the district on local cable, and she has an ActBlue site up for supporters to adopt an ad.  She also raised close to $10,000 in Blue America’s recent contest, and while she didn’t win to receive the extra $10,000, it was still a success.  Cook has challenged Rohrabacher to debates but he’s been cool to the idea.  Local PBS station KOCE has committed to running the debate with or without Crazy Dana, so she may be debating an empty chair.  Cook discussed her plan for Iraq (if the oil companies require security to do their business in the country, they can pay for the private security contractors like Blackwater and let us leave), her energy ideas (the drillusion is backwards thinking that will never move us forward), and Sarah Palin (as the mayor of Huntington Beach, she said that she never received such federal largesse from earmarks that Palin did as mayor of Wasilla, despite having 20 times as many constituents), among other things, while helping clear the tumbleweed.  Cook is an impressive and dedicated citizen legislator who would truly be a breath of fresh air in Washington.

Overall, not a bad morning.  Pics on the flip:

It was a wide expanse.





This one’s me.



Debbie Cook and a volunteer.





The whole gang and the fruits of our labor

Last night, in one of the most shocking bits of incompetence in Republican National Convention history, John McCain spoke to America in front of what convention organizers must have thought was the Walter Reed Army Medical Center, but was actually Walter Reed MIDDLE SCHOOL in North Hollywood.  TPM has been all over this story today, and now they report that the CDP is stepping up on it.

One other interesting development: The California Democratic Party is actually holding a press conference in front of the school within minutes, where Dems will hit McCain for not knowing the difference between the school and Walter Reed Medical Center, which is believed to be the backdrop the McCain campaign really wanted.

Though multiple news organizations are asking for clarification, the McCain campaign is still refusing to comment on questions about whether it had hoped to use the medical center as a backdrop and accidentally used the school instead. Hard to blame them…

Good for the CDP for calling attention to this embarrassment.  Aren’t the Republicans supposed to be the ones who are good at stagecraft?  Hopefully Matt or someone will give us an update.