All posts by Brian Leubitz

Prop 8 Proceedings Left a Stench in the Air

I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised by anything in the Prop 8 trial anymore, but to be honest, I really thought that the attorneys for the proponents were better than this.  No, I’m not imputing any skills to Andy Pugno other than self-aggrandizement, but despite their backward ideals, some of the attorneys on the pro-8 team weren’t all that bad.  Sure, they were given a pretty bad case and told to make some lemonade out of rotten lemons, but the lemonade was only half as rancid as it could have been.

I was unable to make it to the courthouse like I had hoped to cover the hearings today, but thanks to both Arisha and Rick at P8TT and the good folks on the AFER twitter feed, I was able to keep pretty good tabs on the argument.  In short, the proponents wanted to wipe out the first trial because Judge Walker was in a long-term same-sex relationship and “might want to get married.”  They also discussed the question of who controls the video tape from the trial.  And as I was reading the information coming in minute by minute, on both the video and the motion to vacate, one idea came to mind:

Hail Mary.

Before the hearing today, if you asked most any attorney of note, bringing up the old “he’s gay!” argument was something of a sign of discomfort with the way they put on the original case.  Pugno and friends essentially acknowledged that perhaps they could have done it better.

If you look at it legally, they still have a lot of appellate options remaining.  And much of the case boils down to “questions of law” to which appellate courts review de novo, that is they look at them completely fresh.  Judge Walker’s determinations are essentially given no deference there.  However, Judge Walker also listed a slew of “findings of fact.”  These are not reviewed fresh, but are only overturned if they are “clearly erroneous.”  (I’ll leave the question about whether those are really findings of fact for another day.)

So, if you take that his findings of fact are really that, then sure, you’d really, really want a new trial.  But there are several very important questions of law that much of the case turns upon in Judge Walker’s decision.  Those are reviewed fresh, and Team Prop 8 doesn’t seem to like their hand on that one.

So, they brought this motion to vacate, hoping to get a do-over for that rancid lemonade they made last year.  Who knows what their rationale was, but it all stunk of desperation.

Judge Ware’s questioning cut right to the heart of the issue.  What is a judge really obligated to disclose, and what are they allowed to take upon themselves to determine their own bias (or lack thereof)?  Judge Ware brought up a series of hypotheticals that really put the lie to the Prop 8 team’s argument.  I’ll let you go back to the live-blogging this morning to catch those, but suffice it to say, Mr. Cooper was not in an enviable position.

Surely the Prop 8 attorneys thought this through enough to figure out that this wasn’t going anywhere.  After all, vacating that decision would have had profound impacts on cases going far beyond the issue of LGBT rights.  It was, at best, a long shot.  But perhaps a long shot with rewards that were worth the risk for them.

In theory, perception shouldn’t really make a difference in a legal proceeding.  That is extraneous, and shouldn’t be taken into account by the jurists reviewing the case.  And I have confidence in our judiciary that it won’t be.  But, I’m pretty sure if you were able to ask the participants in the Scopes Monkey Trial if perception matters, you would get a very different response. In cases of historical import, perception matters, and I can’t imagine that today did anything for those who wish to hold back the arc of history as it wends its way toward justice.

Brown Gives State a Status Update

In January, Gov. Brown released a video highlighting his plan for the budget.  You know all about that, and the video update to the right alludes to that plan.  Tax extensions on the ballot and big cuts.  That’s the long and short of it.  The big cuts were made, but there has been no extensions, by vote or any other manner.  And those taxes expire in 17 days from today at the end of the month.

So, today Gov. Brown gives the people a status update on where he is in that process, and, again, we know where it is.  We are still waiting on 2 GOP votes in either house to materialize for either a vote or the actual tax extensions.  At this point, Brown has made major moves on ancillary (at best) issues, but still can’t lure the votes across.

Punishment for defying orthodoxy in California’s GOP is extreme and swift.  There will be major challenges, especially with so many of the sitting legislators drawn together for 2012.  This is the sort of the thing Republican primaries are made of.  Whether a Republican candidate who votes for some sort of extensions can make it through into the Top 2 system is yet to be seen.  And frankly, they aren’t particularly keen to be the guinea pigs.

But somebody is going to be the guinea pig. Taking that step past the brink is never easy, but that’s why it is called leadership.  If it were easy, we could just have some action movie star like Arnold… wait… we’ve tried that already…

First Full Draft of Redistricting Maps Emerge Today

Get your comment engines running!  Officially the full maps were supposed to be released today at 9AM, however, it seems the drafts now available lack district numbers. For the Assembly, this really doesn’t matter so much, but for the Senate, that is a big deal.  You could end up with a bunch of Senators sitting out 2012-2014 and then hopping back.  You see Senators will serve the full four years of their term, even if there district and the corresponding number varies wildly.

So, take a look, and let’s see what we have here…

UPDATE: The Bee did a little counting for us, and they’ve posted the resulting maps showing which districts lean Dem or Republican.  You can find those here.  Going just by registration, there are 29 districts in the State Senate with a 20K advantage to Democrats.  Of course, that demands that Dems win elections where they have previously lost, most noticeably in the area that is now Sam Blakeslee’s district.

Update 2: The Washington Post has an interesting analysis of the Congresional map showing a 3 to 5 seat gain for Democrats.  This is more a result of unwinding the weird districts from 2001 than population shifts, but if we can pick up a few seats to make up for Texas that’s a good thing.

Lucas also has a good review of the San Diego aspects of the new maps at TwoCathedrals.

Golden California? SEIU looks to elect moderate Republicans

SEIU has just made what they are calling a major shift in their political strategy. They are launfhing the “Golden California PAC” which will work to elect moderate Republicans in the legislature.

This could end up being a very risky proposition, but from their perspective, this has to be the time for the risk, right? We know that the districts under the new maps might make the addition of some moderates to the legislature somewhat more possible. And with the addition of the top two primary, maybe the extremism of the Republican candidate that reaches the general election.  Maybe more Democrats and DTS voters will support the so-called moderate Republicans.

More thoughts on this story to come…

Fraught with Peril

I’m headed to a budget event hosted by Next10 here in San Francisco shortly, and before I head off, I think it was worth discussing how tumultuous even the best case scenario is at this point.

So, what is that best case scenario? Somehow, Jerry manages to find the few votes that he needs for the so-called “tax bridge” and then we head to the ballot in September.  Yes, September.  What is certain to be a pretty low turnout election, we somehow have to make people understand just how important this revenue really is. And that isn’t going to be easy.

As Gov. Jerry Brown presses Republicans for a mid-September election on taxes, a major Democratic labor ally warned Wednesday that going to the electorate is “terribly fraught with peril.”

David Kieffer, executive director of the Service Employees International Union California State Council, instead wants lawmakers to reach a bipartisan agreement to extend taxes in the Legislature.

He said his group is not obligated to finance a fall tax campaign and would have to weigh that multimillion-dollar expense against spending in 2012 legislative races.(SacBee)

Let’s be honest, we do not have an unlimited pool of campaign funds, and the Democrats haven’t been exactly the greatest partner for labor or some other constituencies during the last few years of slash and burn.  But yes, they could finance the campaign.  Or they could sit it out and watch as a crisis really ensues.

And that’s the best case.  Yay!

“Amazon” Bill Waits In the Senate

Back in January, I wrote up a little ditty about Asm. Nancy Skinner’s AB 153 bill to require sales taxes collection for major retailers who mostly exist online, but have sizable presences in California.  Of course, this is really directed at Amazon.com, the world’s biggest internet retailer.

The good news is that the bill passed the Assembly, after a modification requiring affiliate payments of over $500,000 rather than $10,000.  The change is relatively minor, irrelevant to Amazon, but actually could end up making a difference for some growing e-businesses.

You’ll not be surprised that I’m mostly interested in this for the revenue purposes.  Sure, I pay my use tax (or guess at it anyway), but to be honest, few people do this.  To get that revenue, it really has to be done at the seller’s side.

And that is where this bill comes in, requiring online retailers who use so-called “affiliates” to drive them business.  Basically, these are California folks (um, like me) who drive traffic to Amazon who then get a cut of sales.  New York has already used this legislation, and it is now pending in court.  We are breaking no new ground other than in a quantitative aspect.

But there is still the other argument, which is really more compelling to a wider swath of people that the lack of taxation on internet retailers is just a blow to small businesses in the state who do have to collect their local sales taxes.  Scott Hauge, the president of Small Business California, made this point quite well in an op-ed that originally appeared in the San Jose Merc back in March:

Unfortunately, a tax loophole being exploited in our state hurts small businesses and creates a competitive disadvantage in the marketplace. Out-of-state, online-only vendors don’t collect state sales taxes like brick-and-mortar stores are required to do. This loophole has given out-of-state, online-only retailers an unfair competitive advantage over retailers in our own community.  As a result, the brick-and-mortar small businesses that employ our family members, participate in our communities and are critical to our economy’s recovery are operating at a loss, and jobs are at risk.

At its core, this is an issue of basic fairness. California businesses are being priced out of the marketplace because they are following the law and collecting the sales tax as required by law. All the while, online-only retail giants like Amazon.com are refusing to collect the sales tax by exploiting a loophole and passing on the liability to remit the sales tax to their consumers, many of whom have no idea the compliance burden falls on them to track and issue payment.

The result has meant that online-only retailers abusing an outdated system to get around collecting the sales tax can offer an artificially lower price. That’s not fair, not right and not the way the marketplace should work. It is no way to do business in a 21st century economy.

Fortunately, our state has an opportunity to close the loophole, modernize the system and ensure small businesses are able to compete. Lawmakers can support Assembly Bill 153 by Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner that will require out-of-state, online-only retailers to comply with the same requirements to collect sales taxes that California businesses must follow. (SBCal)

In the end, I think what should ultimately happen with the internet is that there should be some sort of federal sales tax which then gets divided down to the states.  Or…you know, totally overhaul the taxation system that would allow us to rely more on progressive taxation and less on the more regressive sales taxes.  But that last hope seems rather distant at this point.

In the short-term, the Senate should quickly pass AB 153 and get it to the Governor’s desk.  Amazon has threatened to cut off their California affiliates, but as they showed in New York (but not Colorado) they are a bit more cautious on the big states.  Lets get this done, both for the revenue as well as the simple fairness of requiring the same taxation for all businesses.

And It’s Down to This

Well, at least with Jerry Brown, as opposed to Arnold, on occasion you get a glimpse into what the hell is going on.  And on this occasion, we know what the hell is going on, the Republicans do not want the temporary extensions until a fall election can decide the fate of the rest of the tax extensions.

Gov. Jerry Brown and Republican legislators said Tuesday they are in a budget standoff over whether to extend higher sales and vehicle taxes until a mid-September election.

Without legislative action, the state sales tax is slated to decline by one percentage point and the vehicle license fee by half a percentage point on July 1. Brown wants to forestall those reductions until voters can decide in a fall special election whether to keep higher rates for as many as five years.

“That’s the big sticking point,” Brown said Tuesday in a phone interview.

The Democratic governor and GOP lawmakers said they were close to compromises over a spending cap, pension cuts and environmental regulation changes. Republicans agreed that the tax bridge to the election remains the fundamental divide.(SacBee)

Because all those other things are related to the budget, they got tossed in first? I suppose a more simple explanation is that Brown yielded a bunch of ground to get to the September vote, which now seems reasonably assured, and then just couldn’t give up on the so-called tax bridge.

We have basically until Monday before the Assembly and Senate leaders are going to be demanding some sort of vote.  Whether the handful of votes are there for a tax bridge will likely remain in doubt until that point.  However, given the situation now being that there are, according to Senate GOP leaders, no votes for it, its future remains very iffy.  Of course, we could hope that a few Republicans take a gamble on the shifting political landscape and vote for the bridge, but that will involve a lot of back room dealing with what one can only imagine is a lot of very tough questions of how much the Democratic caucus leaders are going to challenge some of these new Republican leaning (but not guaranteed) seats.

Working Redistricting Maps Available

I haven’t been able to really go through any of this, but you can take a look at what the redistricting commission has come out with today for their so-called working maps.  You can download the plethora of maps at their website.  Friday will yield us the first real set of “draft” maps.

Being that I’m in SF, the first thing that jumped out at me is the fact that we would have only one Senate seat.  There are also some maps expected out on Friday, so stay tuned.

Redistricting + Top Two Means An Uncertain 8 Days for the Budget

Jim Sanders and Kevin Yamamura of the Bee take on the theory that redistricting maps due out Friday could shake free a few votes:

To secure Republican votes for the state budget, Democrats have enlisted business leaders, police officers and teachers.

Now they’re hoping for a boost from cartographers.

An independent mapping panel will release its first draft of new legislative boundaries Friday, shuffling incumbents into new districts and threatening some members’ best-laid political plans.

Democrats hope the redistricting maps will help shake free the necessary Republican votes for a budget that relies on taxes to bridge the remaining $9.6 billion deficit. (SacBee)

This isn’t an altogether unreasonable hypothesis.  But, that’s all it is right now, an untested guess.  And as Tony Quinn points out, it is just too hard to game out right now.

However, all that being said, I think a critical point might have been missed here: Top 2 is going to change pretty much everything from the last time around.  Beyond the citizens redistricting commission, which might be more likely to lump two (or even three) legislators into one new district, the element of this new voting system makes next year even more of a wild card.

Just from numbers, this is more likely to be of some import in a district with two Republican legislators, but it could make a difference in a race of two Democrats in the opposite fashion.  So, say you have two somewhat strong legislators of one party as well as a no-name or two of the other party.  While it is far from clear that you will have two Rs or Ds in that general election (see Bowen, D), a sizeable chunk of the smaller party could shift allegiance to a partisan of the other, more powerful party in the region. So, if a bunch of Democrats decide to back one of the Republicans over the other, that could make a difference in creating the Craig Huey situation.  In other words, the weaker party will still get one of its nominees into the general election.

Basically, at this point this is all speculation, but come next June, we could have some very interesting contests on our hands.  And over the next 8 days until the June 15 budget deadline, there will be some squirming legislators.

AB-52, The Insurance Lobby, and the Democrats

Seneca Doane has a great post on Daily Kos from a few days ago about AB52

On Wednesday I wrote, in a diary entitled “CA Health Insurers will win tomorrow” (and then continued in its text “or not — if we can stop them”), about AB-52, the bill that would allow the Insurance Commissioner — currently Dave Jones, the driving force behind the bill — to regulate health insurance premium increases in the same way that he now does automobile and properly/casualty insurance.

I have some good news and some bad news.

The good news is that the bill passed the Assembly yesterday.

More good news is that only one Democrat voted “no.”

The bad news is that no Republicans voted “no” on the floor.

I’ll advise you to go back to the dKos diary for the intricacies of the vote, but one important note here is that once again the Calderons are being an obstacle to progress.

The bill would allow the Insurance Commissioner to have some real authority over health care premiums for the first time by requiring a reasonableness and actuarial review before an increase could go forward.  This seems like a kind of “duh” idea, but it has taken quite a while to move forward.  Dave Jones, the current commissioner tried getting this bill passed while in the  assembly several times without any real success.  It shouldn’t really come as much of a surprise that the insurance lobby has a bit of clout in Sacramento.

And surprise surprise, Charles Calderon and another one of the usual suspects, Asm. Jose Solorio, abstained from the vote along with many Republicans. After attempting to force Asm. Feuer to water down the bill in committee, apparently he just couldn’t bring himself to support even this simplest of regulation on an industry that is clearly out of control.

The bill did pass the assembly, and is headed for the Senate. Lois Wolk, who voted against the bill when Jones brought it forward, is on the committee that will review the bill.  You may want to contact her or the other Senators on the Committee, especially if you are in their districts. Full list over the flip.

Members:


Senator Ed Hernandez (Chair)

Senator Tony Strickland (Vice Chair)

Senator Elaine Alquist

Senator Joel Anderson

Senator Sam Blakeslee

Senator Kevin de León

Senator Mark DeSaulnier

Senator Michael Rubio

Senator Lois Wolk