You don’t have to constantly refresh or check your RSS feeds for the next couple days – budget talks have been called off for Christmas.  There is a meeeting between the Big Three tentatively scheduled for Friday.

In my view, just that we’re talking about a Big Three instead of a Big Five is progress, suggesting that the Gov will go along with the work-around budget if he can save face on a few “stimulus” items (like, you know, taking people’s overtime and meal breaks away.  They can eat while working!).  The Governor never appeared in a movie about schizophrenia, but that’s how he’s been acting the past few days, holding press events at key sites where infrastructure improvements are being shuttered (a levee in Sacramento, the 405 Freeway in Karen Bass’ district in LA) blasting the legislature, while at the same time claiming that progress is being made toward a budget solution.

During a press conference along Interstate 405 in Los Angeles, the Republican governor said he and Democratic leaders made “some great progress” Sunday and that it may only take two more meetings of the same sort to reach a compromise this week. Schwarzenegger had been calling for a solution by Christmas, though he acknowledged Monday that a legislative vote would not take place until next week at the earliest.

“It could easily be that before Christmas Eve or Christmas Day that we have an agreement, that the legislators can be brought back between Christmas and New Year’s to vote on it,” Schwarzenegger said.

(UPDATE: Kevin Yamamura reports that the negotiations have come down to three issues: “rollback of environmental review for construction projects, greater use of private investment and contractors, and deeper spending cuts, including those affecting the state work force.”  These have almost no impact on the budget as a whole – you’re talking about cutting two state worker holidays – and are designed only to reward private business interests.  Arnold has always been in the pocket of the Chamber of Commerce.)

You’ll notice that none of these press events are being held in front of any state employee offices.  That’s because, in general terms, people don’t look kindly on mass layoffs and cutbacks right before Christmas.  It gives them the impression that the person making those layoffs is kind of a Scrooge.  Of course, the immediate halt to all public works projects, at a time when we should be encouraging stimulus projects of this type, also have an impact on jobs.  Not only does every contractor working on those projects get fired, but vendors get stiffed for work that they’ve already completed, leaving the state open to lawsuits.  The Governor should kind of be ashamed to stand in front of any backdrop with cancelled projects behind him, considering his epic mismanagement is partly to blame.  This is particularly true when considering that the voter-approved infrastructure work is vital to public safety and the state would undoubtedly be liable in the event of catastrophe.

Communities nationwide have repaired fewer than half of the 122 levees identified by the government almost two years ago as too poorly maintained to be reliable in major floods, according to Army Corps of Engineers data.

State and local governments were given a year to fix levees cited by the corps for “unacceptable” maintenance deficiencies in a February 2007 review that was part of a post-Hurricane Katrina crackdown. Only 45 have had necessary repairs, according to data provided in response to a USA TODAY request. The remaining unrepaired levees are spread across 18 states and Puerto Rico – most in California and Washington.

The Governor is cleverly casting this as a problem of “the legislature” hoping nobody will notice that he performed the veto, he blocked the very plan that could get these projects restarted.

Fortunately, grassroots Californians are noticing, and you can see the contours of a coalition forming, perhaps resembling the 2005 special election coalition only with more staying power.  Groups like Courage Campaign and the local blogosphere have the reach to engaged communities starving for information.  The California Budget Project provides the statistical heft.  Labor and environmental groups have the ear of the legislature.  And there’s a new member of the coalition – former Obama organizers in California who are moving with unusual speed to support a sane budget solution and slam the Governor for his intransigence.  At Schwarzenegger’s 405 Freeway presser, you can hear a small band of protesters in the background noise.  That was organized by Obama volunteers through their new Facebook-like application, CommunityOrganize.com.  Pam Coukos distributed a letter-writing tool urging a budget solution.  California for Obama has done the same in an email blast, asking it to be distributed to the various volunteer teams.  And there is already talk about veterans of the Obama movement running for state and local office.

This is pretty new and early.  But you can see how this network of committed organizers can gradually become a state political force, especially if the coalitions are built and networks made between the groups mentioned above.  I have long said that what is missing in California is a popular grassroots movement that can go around the media filter and whip up support for progressive values through direct action.  It is said that California is too big for such a movement to catch fire, but in political terms, we all know that the state is very small, and a committed movement can make an outsized difference.  This won’t happen overnight, but we’re moving in the right direction.  Now we just need a gubernatorial candidate to ride the grassroots wave…

There’s an interesting dynamic happening in California.  At the national level, the state’s power is growing.  Californians hold the Speaker of the House and four key committee chairs, including the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee.  The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and now the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence have Californians at the helm.  Any energy and environmental policies will have to go through the committees of Californians, and they’ll have California allies inside the Administration, with the selection of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Dr. Steven Chu as Energy Secretary and Los Angeles Deputy Mayor Nancy Sutley as head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality.  Other Californians are up for possible Administration jobs, like CA-31’s Xavier Becerra (US Trade Representative) and CA-36’s Jane Harman (CIA Director).  It’s a good time to be a California politician in Washington.

It’s a TERRIBLE time to be a California politician in California, as it dawns on everyone in Sacramento that the state is ungovernable and hurtling toward total chaos.  The two parties are miles apart from a budget deal, and even their biggest and boldest efforts would only fill about half the budget gap.  The peculiar mechanisms of state government, with its 2/3 rule for budget and tax provisions, and its artificial deadlines for bills to get through the legislature, which causes remarkable bottlenecks and “gut and amend” legislation changed wholesale in a matter of hours, and the failed experiment with direct democracy which has created unsustainable demands and mandates, make the state impossible to reform and even get working semi-coherently.  The state’s citizens hate their government and hate virtually everyone in it with almost equal fervor, yet find themselves helpless to actually change anything about it, and believe it or not, ACTUALLY THINK THEY’RE DOING A GOOD JOB setting policy through the initiative process, which is simply ignorant (though they paradoxically think that other voters aren’t doing a good job on initiatives).  The activist base does amazing grassroots work, very little of it in this state.  We have a political trade deficit where money and volunteerism leaves the state and nothing returns.  And the political media for a state of 38 million consists of a handful of reporters in Sacramento and a couple dudes with blogs.

Many of these problems have accumulated over a number of years and cannot be laid at the feet of anybody in particular.  But in general, the reason that we’ve gotten to this crisis point, the reason that California is a failed state, is because by and large the dominant political parties WANT IT THAT WAY.  I’m not saying that the state Democratic Party or its elected officials, for example, wants the state to be flung into the sea, metaphorically speaking, but there’s certainly a tendency toward the closed loops of insiders that prefer a predictable and stable status quo, that naturally restricts reform and leads to corruption, gridlock and crisis.  I’ll give you an example.  Last night I was on a conference call where Eric Bauman, Chair of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, announced that he would drop out of the race for state party Chair and run for Vice-Chair, because when 78 year-old former State Senator John Burton entered the race, all his labor, organizational and elected support dried up.  Fitting that he didn’t mention his grassroots support, because it clearly doesn’t matter who they prefer.  

There is little doubt in my mind that John Burton will run the party, or rather delegate it to whatever lieutenant will run the party, in the exact same way it has been run for the last decade or so, characterized by missed opportunities to expand majorities, a lost recall election for Governor, cave-in after cave-in on key budget priorities and a failure to capitalize on the progressive wave of the last two electoral cycles.  These are not abstractions, and they have real-world effects, $41.8 billion of them at last count.  And honestly, the Special Assistant to Gray Davis didn’t represent all that much change, either.

We have an ossified party structure, and a phlegmatic legislative leadership that is unable to get its objectives met because the deck is essentially stacked against them.  The times call for a completely new vision, one that can energize a grassroots base and use citizen action to leverage the necessary unraveling of this dysfunctional government to make it work again.  The work on Prop. 8 since the election has been tremendous, but ultimately, if public schools are closing and unemployment is above 10% and the uninsured are rising and the pain felt in local communities is acute, then we have a much larger problem, one that requires a bigger movement allied with the civil rights movement to make change.

The key flashpoint is the 2010 Governor’s race.  There is currently no one in the field with the ability to break the lock that the status quo has on California and deliver a new majority empowered to bring the state back from the brink.  In an article published last month, Randy Shaw put it best.

None of the current field appears likely to galvanize a grassroots base, or to be willing to take on the “third rails” of California politics: massive prison spending, Prop 13 funding restrictions, or the need for major new education funding. Dianne Feinstein? She’ll be 77 years old on Election Day 2010, and she has long resisted, rather than supported, progressive change.

Jerry Brown just finished campaigning to defeat Proposition 5, which would have saved billions of unnecessary spending on the state’s prison industrial complex. This follows Brown’s television ads for the 2004 election, which helped narrowly defeat a reform of the draconian and extremely expensive “three strikes” law. Brown’s consistent coddling up to the prison guards union is the smoking gun showing that he is not a candidate for change.

Gavin Newsom came out against Prop 5 on the eve of the election, undermining his own “break from the past” image. He also spent another local election cycle opposing the very constituencies who an Obama-style grassroots campaign would need to attract.

With her Senate Intel. Committee post, it is unlikely that Feinstein will run.  He forgets John Garamendi, who supported Prop. 2 (!) because of his fealty to farming interests and who first ran for governor in 1982.

Shaw mentions that the state is ready for a Latina governor, and mentions the Sanchez sisters.  He’s right in part, but has the wrong individual in mind.  I am more convinced than ever that the only person with the strength, talent, grassroots appeal and forward-thinking progressive mindset to fundamentally change the electorate and work toward reform is Congresswoman Hilda Solis.  She authored the green jobs bill that Barack Obama is using as a national model.  She is a national leader on the issue of environmental justice and has the connections to working Californians that can inspire a new set of voters.  She beat an 18-year Democratic incumbent, Matthew Martinez, by 38 points to win her first Congressional primary.  She has worked tirelessly for progressive candidates across the state and the country.  In a state whose demographics are rapidly changing, she could be a powerful symbol of progress that could grab a mandate to finally overhaul this rot at the heart of California’s politial system once and for all.  This is not about one woman as a magic bullet that can change the system; this is about a woman at the heart of a movement.  A movement for justice and equality and dignity and respect.  A movement for boldness and progressive principles and inclusiveness and openness.  A movement that can spark across the state.

I know that Solis is interested in the Vice Chair of the Democratic caucus if Becerra takes the job in the Obama Administration.  Congresswoman, your state needs you desperately.  Please consider running for Governor and leaving a legacy of progress in California.

Howie Klein notes that the next in line for the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, should Charlie Rangel succumb to his ethical struggles, is progressive Pete Stark.  This has many on Capitol Hill in a tizzy: including those who should have the loudest voice in determining Democratic chairmanships, anonymous operatives and industry lobbyists.

Next in seniority to Rangel is Ways and Means Health Subcommittee Chairman Fortney (Pete) Stark, D-Calif., who is given virtually no chance. “The conventional wisdom is he would have a tough time getting elected chairman,” said a Democrat close to leadership. From suggesting Republicans were sending troops to Iraq to die “for the president’s amusement” to referring to a former GOP lawmaker as a “little fruitcake,” Stark is prone to gaffes, sources said. “The guy behind [Rangel] is just not tenable. Republicans would have a field day,” an industry lobbyist said, while noting the business community would “go nuclear. It would just be open warfare.” A more viable pick might be Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Sander Levin, D-Mich., who is next in seniority, although sources cautioned the cerebral Levin may be too deliberate for the high-profile job. Levin also appears to relish his duties at the helm of the trade panel. He is also seen as very much in tune with the labor movement, although industry sources said Levin was someone they could work with, as opposed to Stark. Also, the Democratic Caucus still largely respects the seniority system, the Democratic strategist said. “If you make the decision that Stark is too out there, then I don’t see how you go over Sandy,” he said. “He’s been a loyal member, and nobody would doubt he’s got the intellectual and legislative expertise for the job.”

As Matt Stoller notes, there are NINE anonymous sources in this article.  You’d think the people who presume to control Congress and who gets selected for particular committees wouldn’t be so cowardly, would you?  But of course, they just want to be behind the curtain, impervious to political pressure.

As a contrast, Pete Stark is open and honest about his views.  He has paid his dues and he’s next in line for the job.  His “radical” policy ideas include making health care accessible and affordable for every American and opposing a giveaway to the financial services industry.

Howie explains the double standard at work here:

Do you recall any of the Inside the Beltway types viewing a Republican appointee to any job thru the lenses of how that person might be accepted by working families or by organized labor? Or did I miss the issue where CongressDaily suggested that Elaine Chao might be the world’s absolute worst Labor Secretary because she loathes working people and doesn’t recognize their aspirations as legitimate or worthy of her attention?

Did anyone ever question whether one of Congress’ biggest corporate shills on environmental issues, Dirty Dick Pombo, would be unqualified to be Chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee because he was unanimously loathed by every single environmental group in the country? And what about that issue of CongressDaily– or any other daily– that pointed out that maybe Joe Barton (R-TX) shouldn’t be chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce because the $1,315,660 in legalized reported bribes he’s taken from Big Oil over the years is far more than any other member of the House, more even than notorious Big Oil puppets like Don Young (R-AK- $964,763), Steve Pearce (R-NM- $804,815), Tom Delay (R-TX- $688,840), and Pete Sessions (R-TX- $582,264), and that all the green energy groups feel that Barton is an integral part of the energy problem in our country and decidedly not part of the solution? No, I must have missed it too.

Indeed.  This might be a good time to contact the Speaker and tell her that Democrats up for Democratic committee chairs shouldn’t be subject to a veto by industry.

The past few days have seen another spate of “OMG, Republican incumbents are in trouble!” stories in the traditional media.  Aside from them not understanding and internalizing the theory of coattails, this problem is particularly acute among the California media, where gerrymandering is just supposed to lock up Congressional and legislative seats airtight, except when, you know, it doesn’t.  Peculiar to this rendering of the world is the idea that nobody ever moves, dies, or reaches the age of 18 in any particular district, and thus voter registration statistics are completely static.  But of course this is not true, and once the Democratic Party started putting resources into registering new and lapsed voters, why look what happened:

One of the major reasons for these competitive contests has been the narrowing gap in registered voters between the parties. While Republicans still enjoy a substantial advantage over Democrats in all three districts, their leads have shrunk significantly.

Four years ago, Republicans led Democrats among registered voters by margins of 17 percent in the Orange County-based 46th, 15 percent in the San Diego-area 50th and 11 percent in the Riverside County-based 45th. By this year’s registration deadline of Oct. 20, those leads had shrunk by 6 percent in the 50th, 5 percent in the 46th and 6 percent in the 45th.

There are still the conventional wisdom-besotted punditocracy that simply can’t conceive of these major shifts in the electorate (it’s not like anything has happened the past eight years that would lead people to desert the Republican Party in droves, right?), who believe that incumbents just win and that’s the end of it.  But just ask one of those incumbents what he fears on Tuesday:

HUNTINGTON BEACH – Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach/Long Beach said Friday he’s concerned that Republicans will be discouraged by a possible Democratic landslide at the polls, affecting his re-election bid.

“If (Republican nominee John) McCain does not do well, and Republicans stay home, my lead could evaporate,” the nine-term incumbent of the 46th Congressional District said.

Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook, the Democratic challenger, said the race is a “statistical dead heat,” and agreed that a solid turnout for change – from the economic problems facing the country – could be the difference in Tuesday’s hotly contested race.

“All the uncertainty that’s going on now is helping,” she said, adding that incumbents who have been “part of the system for the past 20 years” could be vulnerable.

This is all the more reason why Democrats and progressives need to remember Jim Corman and get as many voters to the polls as possible.  And Don’t Stop At The Top, of course.

And if the scenario is bright in the Congressional races, the Assembly looks even brighter.  Why, even Dan Walters has figured this one out.

Voters may not realize that they could dramatically alter that balance, but interest groups that are pouring millions of dollars into legislative and ballot measure campaigns certainly get it.

Democrats could pick up one seat in the Senate and are so certain of gaining three to five seats in the Assembly that they’ve diverted resources into several marginal districts, taking advantage of Obamania-inspired voter registration gains, to shoot for the six added seats that would give them a two-thirds majority. That margin is required for the budget and tax increases and could happen as the Capitol wrestles with a rapidly deteriorating economy and a fast-growing budget deficit.

We know about those top-line seats: AD-80, AD-78, AD-15, AD-10, AD-26.  But it’s Linda Jones’ race in AD-36 that has captured my attention.  She represents the ultimate swing vote as the potential 54th Democrat in the State Assembly, the vote that would give us a 2/3 majority, which in California is a governing majority.  And Linda Jones happens to be really great, campaiging on a message of green jobs in the waning days of the race.

As part of her campaign to create a stronger economy for the region, Democratic Assembly Candidate Linda Jones (36th District) today announced her “High Desert Region Green Jobs Initiative” – using ‘green jobs’ to increase opportunities for unemployed and underemployed adults in the High Desert communities. Lt. Governor John Garamendi, a longtime advocate for environmental protection and renewable energy, offered his full support of the plan, calling it a “giant leap forward” for the region’s economy.

“Investing in the ‘green economy’ is a win-win because it will create jobs and increase our clean energy efficiency,” said Linda Jones. “The High Desert Region Green Jobs Initiative will create outreach, educational, and training programs to recruit, develop, and sustain a green industry that will create jobs, increase our clean energy efficiency, and grow our economy for the region.”

There’s a website, High Desert Green Jobs, that details the initiative.  It’s fantastic that someone in a swing district trying to become the first Democratic member of the Assembly from this region in 34 years is offering such a bold agenda.

This district had an eight-point GOP lean just two years ago.  Now the registration gap is GONE.  400 votes separate Democrats and Republicans.  Don’t give me that redistricting stuff, nothing’s stopping this progressive wave.  I’m excited for Linda Jones and so is her community.

There’s just one day to go.  You need to Stay for Change because you can have a major impact right here in California.  I’m going to give predictions on everything in the morning.  But right now, I’m psyched.

The most remarkable quote of the week came from a backbencher Yacht Party Republican named Mark Wyland, commenting on the historically late state budget.  If the California Democratic Party had a locker room, this would be serious bulletin-board material:

Voters are unlikely to punish lawmakers for the budget delay in any substantive way on Nov. 4  unless it’s to pass a ballot measure that would change how political districts are drawn, said state Sen. Mark Wyland (R-Carlsbad).

“My experience with voters is that they really don’t care how long it takes to get a budget,” Wyland said, following his participation in a panel discussion at an event on reforming state government.

According to Wyland, prolonged budget stalemates like this year’s sometimes encourage voters to keep their incumbents. Because districts are usually heavily skewed in registration to one party or another, he said, sitting legislators are more likely to hear encouragement for their party’s ideological position than disfavor.

And voting against the party – in Wyland’s example, for tax raises or to reinstate the unpopular vehicle-license fee – is an invitation to face a primary challenge in the next election cycle, he said.

This is the calcified opinion from the Yacht Party, and why they’ll never be moved from their ideological perches.  They believe that they have more to fear from internal challenges on the grounds of insufficient fealty to failed conservative policies than from the consequences of those policies.  And there’s a lot of evidence on their side, although not as much as they think.  

But the most glaring point made in this statement is one of contempt.  It shows contempt for voters to act in the best interest of an ideology than in the best interest of the state.  It shows contempt for voters to hold the budget hostage, causing extreme hardship in the lives of state employees, community health centers, policemen and firefighters, and public schools,  and expect nobody to notice.  It shows contempt for voters to use the tyranny of the minority to advance a cause completely at odds with the prevailing opinion of the state.  Real people were affected and harmed by this budget, and all of us will be in the future as the bills of conservative borrow-and-spend economics and systematic destruction of government come due.

And the thing is, Wyland is relying on a failed model.  Demographic shifts and a reckoning of the failure of conservatism has made no district safe.  Indeed Californians can punish Yacht Party Republicans for their intransigence and obstructionism.  There are a number of races at the federal and state level where Democrats have more than a chance to unseat Republicans and turn seats blue.  In fact, with some luck and proper resources we can get very close to that 2/3 majority needed to pass budgets and fix the structural revenue deficit.  That’s where you come in.

The Calitics Editorial Board has identified five seats which strike a balance between winnable races and progressive leadership.  We’ve decided to start a major fundraising push for these five candidates between now and the end of the quarterly reporting requirement on September 30.  That gives us only a few days, but here’s the kicker – Calitics will match every donation made to these candidates up to $500 each, for a grand total of a $2,500 candidate match.  

Please visit our special Calitics Match ActBlue page and support any or all of these five great candidates:

Charlie Brown (CA-04): A recent Research 2000 poll showed Brown leading perennial candidate Tom McClintock 46-41 in this deep red district.  Brown, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, nearly defeated indicted Congressman John Doolittle in 2006 and has shown tremendous leadership on veteran’s issues and the FISA fight before even coming to Congress.  He’s a better Democrat we can all be proud of.

Debbie Cook (CA-46): Running in a tough district against certifiably crazy Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Debbie Cook is running with an unabashedly progressive message.  The Mayor of Huntington Beach, Cook is an expert on peak oil and energy issues, and would instantly be one of the most knowledgeable voices in the Congress on how to move toward a post-carbon future.  She also believes in ending the Iraq occupation responsibly and achieving the goal of quality and affordable health care for all.

Hannah-Beth Jackson (SD-19): A former Assemblywoman and creator of Speak Out California, a blog and resource for Golden State progressives, Hannah-Beth Jackson has proven her progressive bona fides time and again.  Running in rapidly changing Ventura County against the former state director of the Club for Growth, Tony Strickland, Jackson can prove that even Tom McClintock’s old seat is not safe from the progressive wave.  She would lead in the State Senate on issues of economic justice and the environment.

Alyson Huber (AD-10): AD-10 is another district where the demographics are changing, and Alyson Huber is perfectly suited to take advantage of this and turn the seat blue.  Huber, an attorney and working mother, is focused on increasing access to health care and education for all Californians.  She would help tremendously in bringing us closer to that needed 2/3 majority.

Manuel Perez (AD-80): A transformative leader, Manuel Perez is ready to take that leadership to Sacramento.  Part of a growing group of Hispanic-Americans in the Coachella Valley who are leading a major progressive challenge to the typical politics of the region, Manuel has created community health clinics, served on the Coachella School Board as a trustee, taught classes, and organized his community to fight for change.  He is uniquely suited to take his varied experience and lead in the State Legislature.

The time is tight, but we need to make Mark Wyland and the Yacht Party Republicans he represents cry.  Please contribute to our Calitics Match fundraising effort before Tuesday!

The most hotly anticipated State Senate election this year is in the 19th District covering Santa Barbara and Ventura County, between Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson and Republican Tony Strickland.  Though the two are almost polar opposites, the chunk of the district in Santa Barbara, where residents have long memories about the 1969 oil spill, makes it impossible for Republicans to win with their “Drill Now” message on energy.  So Tony Strickland opted to run some ads that Al Gore might have run were he to be contesting in the district, highlighting renewable energy through wind, solar, algae, tidal and other forms.  This is completely at odds with Strickland’s doctrinaire Republican record, with votes against green building standards, minimum renewable energy standards, and even fuel-efficient tires.  Strickland has taken money from Big Oil and stood with global warming denialists in the recent past.  It’s incongruous for him to carry a pro-environment message.

So I hooked up with the Courage Campaign and the California League of Conservation Voters to put together a little video highlighting this incongruity.

What’s interesting is that the Courage Campaign’s Web tool invited those supporters who received their email blast to spread the word, and they were so successful, both online political reporters at the Ventura County Star, the region’s biggest newspaper, covered the video.  More important, the Jackson campaign has been energized to fight back against some of Strickland allies’ misleading ads on taxes, and in doing so buttresses the outside groups’ take about Strickland’s terrible environmental record.

So progressive groups are ensuring that Strickland gets away with nothing in this race, and in turn the Jackson campaign is fighting back as well and counter-punching swiftly and effectively.  This is a growing success story in the 19th.