Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March.  The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!).  And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.  

We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run.  The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.

So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I’ve decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges.  Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall.  Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK.  You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

A couple notes: I’ve changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State’s office.  As you’ll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout.  Very encouraging.  Also, I’ve noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq.  My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Main challenger: Dean Andal.  Cook number: R+3.  % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%.  DCCC defended.  In researching this race, I’ve noticed that Jerry McNerney gets excellent press inside his district.  He’s moved to more comfortable policy areas for him, like renewable energy and the green economy.  And he was pretty bold in standing up to the fearmongers who ran ads in his district against him about the FISA bill.  The NRCC found some coins in the couch and paid for a “Vote McNerney Out” website in support of their challenger Dean Andal.  But the percentage of Democratic turnout in the district reflects the fact that the demographics really have shifted here.  So, good luck, NRCC.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I’m going to do three tiers in setting apart the top 13 seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04.  Last month: 1.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown.  Repub. challengers: Doug Ose, Tom McClintock.  PVI #: R+11.  % Dem turnout in primary: 44.7.  DCCC targeted.  This race is really heating up.  The Tom McClintock welfare queen story has legs, and may damage him in his primary fight against former US Rep. Doug Ose.  A guy running as the ultimate rock-ribbed fiscal conservative can’t be seen enriching himself on the public dole.  The Ose-McClintock primary is getting nasty, with McClintock saying things like “He is one of those congressman that has squandered away our rights.”  Meanwhile, Charlie Brown has kept his promises by donating $17,500 to veterans care providers, an event which got great press.  He also took the endorsement of VoteVets PAC and won an online poll with the veterans’ group, yielding $5,000 for his campaign.  CA-04 is most definitely still in play.

2. CA-26.  Last month: 2.  Incumbent: David Dreier.  Challenger: Russ Warner.  PVI #: R+4.  % Dem. turnout: 50.2.  DCCC targeted.  The first real misstep of the campaign from David Dreier came this month, as he misstated his earnings from stock sales (to the tune of $263,000) in financial disclosure reports.  Russ Warner pounced on it, and Dreier tried to make excuses, but it fits into the narrative of him being out of touch with the district.  

Kristin Ponts, campaign manager for Warner, said, “The idea that David Dreier, who has been in Congress for 27 years, wouldn’t know how to fill out a basic financial disclosure form is absurd.”

Warner called the report an example of the “scandal-plagued culture of corruption” in Washington. He said that it was “no surprise given these recent failures to comply with House ethics rules” that Dreier chose to vote against stronger rules being adopted in the House.

The creation of an independent house ethics office was recently approved by a 229-182 vote with opposition from most Republicans.

That’s a fighting Democrat right there.  Dreier also has a Republican primary challenge, though it doesn’t look to be that big a deal.

3. CA-50.  Last month: 3.  Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Challengers: Nick Leibham, Cheryl Ede.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.8.  DCCC targeted.  The press is starting to come around in thinking that this is a legitimate race.  Nick Leibham was profiled in an interview by Lucas O’Connor that was pretty revealing.  I liked this:

We win this fight because their platform is old and it’s worn out…The Reagan Revolution…which started really in 1964 with Goldwater’s defeat…it culminated in 1980 and 1994 and the end of the Bush years are a bookend. It’s tired, it’s played out, and it no longer offers up a positive agenda for America. This isn’t just a change election in the sense of Democrats or Republicans.  This is a paradigm shifting election and Democrats can capture that…they’ve got a lot of work to do but we can capture it and I think the pendulum is swinging our way.

Cheryl Ede, who’s been endorsed by Progressive Democrats of America, has a base of support in the district, as evidenced by this account of an Escondido Democratic Club meeting where Leibham’s policy stances were questioned as perhaps being too conservative.  I think it’s great to be having this debate, and having Democrats locally move their candidates to the most representative positions.  That can only help in the fall.

Second Tier

4. CA-45.  Last month: 4.  Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack.  Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Bornstein.  PVI #: R+3.  % Dem. turnout: 51.3.  As seen by the majority Democratic turnout in the primary, this is a district that’s ripe for a takeover.  And I’m intrigued by the prospect of proven electoral winner Julie Bornstein rising to the challenge.  Bono Mack is married to a guy in Florida and lives in Washington.  Bornstein is someone who’s represented the district and can do the same in the Congress.  And her son is currently serving in Iraq, which is undeniably powerful.  She announced her candidacy on the fifth anniversary of the war.  Her area of expertise is affordable housing, which is a sorely needed perspective in Washington, too.  Keep an eye on this race, it could easily go top-tier.

5. CA-46.  Last month: 7.  Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher.  Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  This is going to be the most fun race of the cycle, no doubt about it.  Dana Rohrabacher is crazy.  This is well-known.  He spent an hour on the floor of the Congress recently ranting about a secret investigation about the 1993 WTC bombing that sounded like a first draft from an Oliver Stone movie.  His former aide was just sentenced to three years in prison for molesting young boys.  Howie Klein can give you all the background you’d ever need on Rohrabacher.  And this year, we’re actually poised to capitalize on this.  Debbie Cook is the mayor of Huntington Beach, a solid Democrat who has endorsed the Responsible Plan.  The Rohrabacher people are clearly nervous; they’ve been trying to use legal shenanigans to remove “Mayor” from Cook’s designation on the ballot.  This was tossed out of court, but the strategy is to bleed Cook of money and resources and tangle her up in legal machinations.  It’s almost just as telling that Crazy Dana is teaming up with Maxine Waters and calling for a boycott of the Olympic opening ceremonies in Beijing in protest of the crackdown in Tibet.  He’s trying to moderate his nutball stances.  He’s scared.

6. CA-03.  Last month: 5.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8.  As I’ve said earlier, this is the most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican.  It had the highest Democratic turnout in February of any Republican-held seat, and it has the narrowest registration advantage, too.  Bill Durston is a physician and a Vietnam combat veteran.  He needs the resources, but a Democrat can win this district, and maybe some of the national money put into the neighboring district of CA-04 will wear off on people over here.  Plus, Debra Bowen’s relentless registration efforts have their best effect in the districts in and around Sacramento, and these days that means more registered Democrats.  This one will be close.

Also, Dr. Durston wrote a song about war.

Third Tier

7. CA-52.  Last month: 6.  Open seat.  Repub. challengers: several, including Duncan D. Hunter.  Dem. challengers: Mike Lumpkin, Vicki Butcher.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  Duncan Hunter is still favored, but Navy SEAL Commander Mike Lumpkin has been good at raising money, and this interview with him shows that he has a decent command of the issues.  Green Beret Jim Hester dropped out to endorse Lumpkin.  Much like in CA-50, Vicki Butcher has been endorsed by PDA, and will offer a nice progressive counter-weight in the primary.  A contested primary can only help a novice candidate like this.  Here’s a not-so-decent story on the race.

8. CA-42.  Last month: 10.  Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Challengers: Ron Shepston (Responsible Plan Endorser), Ed Chau.  PVI #: R+10.  % Dem. turnout: 44.0.  Disclosure: I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston.  You pretty much can’t find Gary Miller anymore, he’s gone so far underground, but Ron Shepston has become more visible of late.  He endorsed the Responsible Plan, and he attacked Gary Miller for a $1.28 million dollar earmark that he placed in the 2005 highway bill, clearly to benefit his biggest campaign contributor.  Ed Chau is also a bit of a mystery, although the LA County Labor Fed endorsed him.  I can’t imagine they’d put money into the primary, however.

9. CA-24.  Last month: NR.  Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Challengers: Jill Martinez, Mary Pallant, Marta Jorgensen.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.6.  I decided to add this seat after seeing the Democratic turnout numbers from February.  If the right candidate can raise enough money to be visible, this is a dark horse seat.  Elton Gallegly is your basic rubber stamp Republican, and he flirted with retirement in 2006.  Jill Martinez was the opponent that year, and Mary Pallant, my fellow 41st AD delegate, appears to be putting together a decent organization locally.  PDA has endorsed Pallant, and she penned an op-ed in the Ventura County Star responding to Elton Gallegly’s no new taxes screed in the same paper.

The congressman plays a numbers game with the people’s money, while distorting history and facts. He feigns compassion for the nation’s middle class and poor while protecting tax loopholes for megamillionaires and the well-connected few.

Gallegly’s tax policy is inconsistent and unsound because it is too simplistic and relies upon the discredited notion of supply-side economics. The only thing that trickles down is massive debt to those least able to pay.

I love a strong an unabashed progressive in this district.  Let’s see what happens.  Marta Jorgensen is also running in this district.

10. CA-44.  Last month: 9.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Challenger: Bill Hedrick.  PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 49.3.  Bill Hedrick is the only challenger for this seat headed into the primary, as Louis Vandenberg and Rogelio Morales have dropped out.  Ken Calvert’s corruption questions continue to grow, as he has sponsored legislation that would help some business partners back home.  The fact that Democratic and Republican turnout was virtually tied in February shows that there’s an opportunity here.

11. CA-41.  Last month: 8.  Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 46.3.  Jerry Lewis just got a lifeline from the new US Attorney for Los Angeles.  Thomas O’Brien disbanded the public corruption unit that would be investigating Lewis’ corrupt actions on behalf of lobbyists.  Dianne Feinstein is seeking answers on this, but the short answer is that Lewis is probably out of the woods on the indictment front.

12. CA-25.  Last month: NR.  Incumbent: Buck McKeon.  Challenger: Jacquese Conaway.  PVI #: R+7.  % Dem. turnout: 50.9%.  I threw this in because this is yet another seat where Democratic turnout outpaced Republican turnout in February.  I know nothing about Jacquese Conaway other than her candidate website.

13. CA-48.  Last month: NR.  Incumbent: John Campbell.  Challenger: Steve Young.  PVI #: R+8.  % Dem. turnout: 45.1.  I really like Steve Young and the tireless work he’s done to build the party in one of the reddest areas in the entire country.  Visit his site, won’t you?

(bump cause I like congressional and numbers – promoted by Lucas O’Connor)

Turnout from Tuesday’s primary by party.  Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison’s sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others.  Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.

Numbers on the flip.

Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25.  Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.

CA-02; R+13

Wally Herger (R)

R 80,090

D 70,563

CA-03; R+7

Dan Lungren (R)

R 70,544

D 80,070

CA-04; R+11

Open (R)

R 107,757

D 89,717

CA-09; D+38

Barbara Lee (D)

R 13,384

D 124,070

CA-11; R+3

Jerry McNerney (D)

R 69,766

D 81,650

CA-19; R+10

George Radanovich (R)

R 63,766

D 62,331

CA-21; R+13

Devin Nunes (R)

R 51,272

D 44,053

CA-22; R+16

Kevin McCarthy (R)

R 86,234

D 61,123

CA-24; R+5

Elton Gallegly (R)

R 78,422

D 82,293

CA-25; R+7

Buck McKeon (R)

R 60,837

D 64,048

CA-26; R+4

David Dreier (R)

R 73,144

D 74,934

CA-40; R+8

Ed Royce (R)

R 66,027

D 59,372

CA-41; R+9

Jerry Lewis (R)

R 68,055

D 59,833

CA-42; R+10

Gary Miller (R)

R 79,622

D 63,182

CA-44; R+6

Ken Calvert (R)

R 57,083

D 57,317

CA-45; R+3

Mary Bono (R)

R 53,635

D 59,067

CA-46; R+6

Dana Rohrabacher (R)

R 81,427

D 74,084

CA-48; R+8

John Campbell (R)

R 92,187

D 75,845

CA-49; R+10

Darrell Issa (R)

R 62,658

D 53,493

CA-50; R+5

Brian Bilbray (R)

R 78,489

D 82,358

CA-52; R+9

Open (R)

R 74,593

D 67,849

The long-dormant Jerry Lewis investigation showed signs of being restarted in recent months after one of his top aides was handed a federal subpoena.  Now we’ve learned that the FBI has been taking a look at Lewis’ personal financial records – and fellow Triangle of Corruption member Ken Calvert’s, too.

The apparently stalled probe of Lewis has focused on his relationship to buddy and lobbyist Bill Lowery. Roll Call notes that the feds pulled records for two of Lowery’s lobbyists, Jeffrey Shockey and Letitia White. Both once worked to Lewis, but moved over to work for Lowery. Shockey has since moved back to Lewis again. The feds also pulled records for Lewis’ wife, his chief of staff Arlene Willis.

As for Calvert, it’s unclear just what the feds are scrutinizing (one of his “honest graft” schemes?) or even if he’s the focus of a full-blown investigation.

His trouble started last May, when the Los Angeles Times reported that he and a partner pocketed a profit of nearly a half-million dollars in less than a year on a land deal. The report found that while he owned the land, Calvert earmarked $1.5 million for commercial development nearby and $8 million for a freeway exchange 16 miles away.

About a week later, the California FBI agent pulled Calvert’s financial disclosure forms for 2000 through 2005. Calvert never retained legal counsel, but buzz over the issue compelled GOP leaders to skip over him last year when a slot opened on the Appropriations panel….

Candidates and campaigns in these districts take note: these corruption investigations are not going away.

There’s some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California.  Plus, believe it or not, we’re only about a year out from Election Day.  Let’s take a look at the top ten races.

As usual, I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup.  I’m also, as usual, including the “Boxer number.”  Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is.  If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote.  Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)

First, let’s look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11.  Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Main challenger: Dean Andal.  Boxer number: 49.  McNerney had a big fundraising quarter big fundraising year (h/t babaloo), with over a million dollars in receipts, so he obviously won’t suffer from the same cash disadvantage he had in his race against Richard Pombo.  Nearly half of that money, $421,000, came from PACs.  This is not a low-dollar revolution.  Dean Andal has raised plenty of money too, but he’s down 2:1 in cash on hand.  McNerney of late has hammered the SCHIP issue, perhaps as a way to get back in the good graces of some Democrats wary of his votes and rhetoric on other issues.  Andal is trying to blur the lines on the issue.

A spokesman for former California Assemblyman Dean Andal (R), who is seeking Rep. Jerry McNerney’s (D) seat, made a similar remark. “He’s looking at it, like all of us reading a paper,” Richard Temple said. “Until he has all the information, I don’t think he can [definitively] say whether the president is doing the right thing,” Temple said.

The fact is that Andal is trying to reinvent himself as some kind of moderate, when it’s obvious he would be a Republican rubber-stamp.  The question is whether or not McNerney will be able to rally supporters that he represents a true contrast.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04. Incumbent: John Doolittle.  Main challenger: Charlie Brown.  Last month: 1.  Boxer number: 40.  Doolittle’s money troubles have been well documented, but just today we learned that he has more money in his legal defense fund than he does cash on hand for the campaign.  That should give you an inkling as to his priorities.  Practically everyone in America has been subpoenad to testify in his corruption investigation, and those who haven’t are running against him in the Republican primary (at least 3 challengers, at last count).  Meanwhile, he’s defiant about staying in the race, perhaps because it is making his wife rich – she got another $45,000 from the campaign for “fundraising services” last quarter.  We’re all hoping Doolittle stays in this race and limps across the primary line, because Charlie Brown is poised to crush him.  At this point, Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post has this as the most likely race to flip parties in America. (Interesting side note: Doolittle primary challenger Eric Egland is stealing Brown’s statements for his own website.  More blurring strategy.)

2) CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. Main challengers: Russ Warner, Hoyt Hilsman.  Last month: 2.  Boxer number: 48. David Dreier got a wake-up call and started raising money in earnest this quarter for what will be a competitive race.  Russ Warner’s Q3 numbers were good (close to $130K), and he’s doing the smart thing by attacking Dreier on his SCHIP vote.  I like that Hoyt Hilsman is foregrounding the housing crisis, which is particularly acute in this district, as a part of his candidacy.  Whoever comes out of the primary will be able to deliver a strong message of change.  Dreier, meanwhile, will continue to whine about the mean Democrats and really make himself look like a strong leader.

3) CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Main challenger: Nick Leibham.  Last month: 3.  Boxer number: 48.  Nick Leibham is a serious candidate for Congress in an area that was ravaged by wildfires last week, which may change the dynamic somewhat.  Leibham raised around $50K and has $132,000 CoH, trailing Bilbray by about half, which isn’t a bad spread at this point, honestly.  He actually gained ground this quarter because Bilbray had a lot of expenditures.  Bilbray being on Air Force One when it grounded firefighting aircraft in the midst of the blazes for several hours seems like it could be made into a campaign issue.  Bilbray has one arrow in the quiver, and that’s hating on illegal immigrants.  It defines him to the extent that he’s actually wistful for the imminent departure from Congress of Tom Tancredo.  I’m confident about keeping this in the number 3 position for now, although Leibham must demonstrate support above the Busby ceiling here.

4)) CA-41. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Main challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, others.  Last month: 8.  Boxer number: 43.  I’m shooting this one back up, as events on the ground have shifted.  First of all, the investigations have restarted, with one Lewis staffer trying to deny a grand jury subpoena.  Second, the Brent Wilkes trial has taken a bizarre turn, leading some to wonder if attorneys are setting up Wilkes to flip on the other Congresscritters he bribed, including Lewis.  So the legal cases are hampering him.  What’s more, new candidates have entered the race.  Tim Prince is officially in, and he’s trying to keep his profile up in the district.  I’ll have more on Dr. Ramirez-Dean later, but she’s also a candidate.  Suffice to say that we will not have the same situation where Lewis handpicked his opponent in 2006.  There will be an actual election.

5) CA-42. Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Main challenger: Ron Shepston.  Last month: 5.  Boxer number: 41.  This is yet another area where the recent wildfires may affect the dynamic of the race.  While Gary Miller was voting against health care for children and keeping a low profile from federal investigators, Ron Shepston walked out of a candidate training summit to find his home in Silverado Canyon being threatened by the Santiago fire.  He got right to work helping local firefighting efforts.  With all of the human interest stories I’ve seen around Southern California the past week, I can’t believe I didn’t see this one: a candidate for Congress pitching in and showing leadership through helping defend his home and the homes of his neighbors from fires.  It’s powerful.  Shepston needs something to click with a larger base of support (his fundraising last quarter was around $25K) and this could be it.

6) CA-45.  Incumbent: Mary Bono.  Main challenger: Paul Clay.  Last month: 10.  Boxer number: 49.  Now that there’s an actual candidate in Paul Clay, I can raise this closer to the level where it should rightfully be.  It remains to be seen whether or not Clay is viable, but certainly the Palm Springs progressive community has been active and vocal and will push to unseat Mary Bono this time around.  Bono immunized herself a bit by voting with Democrats or SCHIP, but there’s still a long record of not supporting the needs of the district.  And marrying a fellow Congressman, to me, shows that she’s really part of the DC establishment and not the area.

7) CA-44.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Main challenger: Bill Hedrick.  Last month: 6.  Boxer number: 45.  Ken Calvert still has an ethical cloud hanging over his head, has a terrible voting record, supported the Dirty Tricks initiative in its initial incarnation, and Bill Hedrick is on the attack.  This is an email he sent out recently, in response to a made up controversy about flag-folding that Calvert decided to take the lead on:

Like many of you, I was amazed that Congressman Calvert’s October 25, 2007 emailed newsletter consisted of a garbled interpretation of American history, Pilgrims, and a controversy regarding the “constituent service” of selling American flags, etc., rather than the real and immediate crisis facing residents of the 44th Congressional District-wildfires and the tragic loss suffered by Californians […]

I join others in praying for an end to the fires and God’s blessing on the victims and firefighters. We need engaged
representatives who will fight full-force to make our federal government responsive here and now.

Projecting an image of a do-nothing Congressman is right in line with what will work next November, IMO.  Hedrick is doing a good job attacks, but needs to make sure he has the resources to fight in this district.

8) CA-24. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Main challengers: Mary Pallant, Chip Fraser, Brett Wagner, Jill Martinez?  Last month: 4  Boxer number: 47.  I just don’t think Elton Gallegly’s retiring this time around, and while I think that if he did there could be some competition here, he far outstrips the rest of the field in money and name ID.  I’d really like to see a viable alternative here because it might help downticket races (SD-19!), but none is forthcoming as of yet.  I like Mary Pallant a lot but an $1,100 3rd quarter isn’t going to cut it.

9) CA-52. Incumbent: None.  Republican challenger: Duncan L. Hunter.  Democratic challengers: Jim Hester, Mike Lumpkin.  Last month: 7.  Boxer number: 44.  Mike Lumpkin raised some serious money, around $50,000 in a short amount of time, to challenge this open seat.  I still think that it’s going to be hard to run against someone who will be serving in Iraq or Afghanistan during the election, potentially, and in addition, Duncan Hunter the pére has raised his profile enough that low-information Republicans will go to the polls thinking that he’s the candidate, giving a fake level of incumbency to his namesake.

10) CA-03.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Main challenger: Bill Durston.  Last month: 9.  Boxer number: 42.  Nothing much to report here, although Bill Durston does have a MySpace page.  Akogun’s reports on the race have been very enlightening.  Give it up for candidates doing the hard work in red counties.

Josh Marshall is puzzled by the defense strategy employed by celebrilawyer Mark Geragos for corrupt defense contractor Brent Wilkes.  So far he’s called to the stand exactly one witness, who pretty much just called Wilkes a nice guy.  That hardly refutes the voluminous amounts of evidence showing Wilkes’ multiple bribery schemes.

So what’s the strategy?  Perhaps Geragos is hanging Wilkes out as a possible flipper for a bigger fish:

The only logic I can see to this is based on something a lawyer friend told me. If Wilkes tries to push an ‘everybody does it’ too hard at trial then he’s locked himself to a set of facts that will make it a lot harder for him to turn around and cut a deal in exchange for serving up Bill Lowery and Rep. Lewis (R-CA).

That makes sense, I guess. Though I think I need to guard against a professional investment in having it having it be true since Wilkes serving up these two jokers would be a veritable festival of muck, something akin to taking a pin to a muck balloon. But in that case, why’d he go to trial in the first place? Something about the whole thing just doesn’t fit to me.

Me neither.  But we do know that Lewis is getting nervous about further investigation, because his staffer just told the Justice Department to go eat a fig.

According to RollCall, a former staffer for the House Appropriations Committee that worked for then Chairman Jerry Lewis said he intends to defy a federal subpoena he was served today from the US District Court for the Central District in California…

The staffer, Greg Lasker, is trying to hide behind the “speech and debate” clause of the Constitution and claim that the subpoena is not consistent with the “rights and privileges of the House.”  I guess it’s a lead-by-example thing, the President and his staff doesn’t see any need to comply with subpoenas, so why should Lasker?

After months of dormancy, the new US Attorney in Los Angeles, Thomas O’Brien, appears to have ramped up the Lewis investigation.  Stay tuned…

(in other news, Duke Cunningham is a complete idiot)

That was quick.  The new US Attorney for the Los Angeles region, Thomas O’Brien, was just sworn in a week or so ago.  He’s apparently making the Jerry Lewis investigation a priority:

A federal grand jury in Los Angeles has issued a subpoena for a House Appropriations Committee staffer as part of the ongoing probe of Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), the ranking member of the powerful panel.

Greg Lankler, a staffer on the House Appropriations Committee’s Defense subcommittee, was recently subpoenaed by a federal grand jury looking into Lewis, according to House insiders.

The subpoena is for both documents and testimony, although it is unclear at this point whether Lankler will cooperate. The matter has been forwarded to the House general counsel’s office, which is still studying the subpoena.

There hasn’t been a subpoena in this case, which involves Lewis’ moving millions of dollars’ worth of earmarks to his friend, the ex-Congressman and lobbyist Bill Lowery, in over a year.  Investigators on the case have been running out of money.  So it is a bit of a surprise that this subpoena would emerge.  The big difference in recent weeks is the confirmation of Thomas O’Brien.

Draw your own conclusions.

Now for the reason I turned to Novakula in the first place (yes, he’s a partisan hack, but his sources are typically impeccable).  This weekend he reported on maneuvers within the House GOP caucus to keep Jerry Lewis in his post as the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, despite being under federal investigation.  You’ll recall that Minority Leader John Boehner stressed ethics and honesty when elected by the caucus, and even demoted John Doolittle from Appropriations when the FBI raided his house.  There would appear to be a double standard, and reformers within the Republican Party are pissed.

The GOP leadership was so frazzled by this column that they sought to spin it on Friday, before it was even published.  They denied that the meeting ever occurred.  However, Lewis is still the ranking member of the Committee, so those denials only go so far.  So it appears he’ll remain in that position throughout his re-election effort.  And that effort has Howie Klein pissed:

It also looks like he’s gotten the same shill candidate, Louie Contreras, who didn’t run against him in 2006 to be his “opponent” in 2008– and the state of Art Torres’ California Democratic Party is so pathetic that they won’t even lift a finger to look into it.

So Lewis, probably the single most corrupt man in Congress, has the Republican nomination locked up and the Democratic nomination rigged. All he has to do is not get indicted. He’s spent over a million dollars in legal fees to keep that from happening.

Contreras actually jumped into the comments of that post and claimed that State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell was supporting him.  He isn’t.  The San Bernardino Sun claims Tim Prince is running, though he earlier said that he would only run if Lewis didn’t.  I can add that there will be an additional “mystery candidate” in this race, and for now, that’s all I can say. (Tee-hee!!)

OK, I’m getting this in just under the wire.  Time for the House roundup for September.  There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away.  In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape.  It’s favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11.  But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.

I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup.  I’m also, as usual, including the “Boxer number.”  Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is.  If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote.  Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)

First, let’s look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11 (McNerney).  CQ Politics has the seat “Leans Democratic,” and only two Democratic seats are less safe (Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Nancy Boyda in KS-02).  Dean Andal has the funds to make a challenge here, and he’s become a born-again environmentalist, which is curious considering his prior anti-environmental history.  But McNerney has done himself no favors.  His bungled rhetoric during the Iraq debate in August was met with outcry, and this week’s vote to condemn MoveOn.org, an organization that gave him over $50,000 in 2006, didn’t exactly enthuse activists either.  He tried to respond by blasting Rush Limbaugh’s comments and asking that he be taken off the air; I’m not sure how that jibes with the First Amendment.  McNerney will clearly have a lot of DCCC incumbency protection, but this is obviously a race that won’t be easy, and McNerney is making it difficult for activists to continue to support him.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04 (Doolittle).  Last month: 1.  Boxer number: 40.  This is one of six Republican-held seats listed in CQ’s ratings as “No Clear Favorite,” and one of only two where the incumbent is running for re-election (the other is Robin Hayes against netroots hero Larry Kissell in NC-08).  Charlie Brown, who has a  great interview in CQ this week, actually announced his campaign just a few weeks ago as part of a barnstorming tour.  As for John Doolittle, his legal woes continue.  Eleven years’ worth of documents have been subpoenaed by the Justice Department, as part of the Abramoff case.  Doolittle is refusing to comply with the subpoena, setting up what could be a Constitutional showdown.  Meanwhile, he has at least three high-profile primary challengers, and a lot of pressure within the district to resign.  The more candidates in the primary actually helps Doolittle, as it spreads out the vote.  If it’s a two-person primary, he could easily lose.  And Brown would be in excellent position to beat Doolittle if there’s a rematch.

2) CA-26 (Dreier).  Last month: 2.  Boxer number: 48.  Russ Warner, last seen at the Calitics Q3 event, has been busily raising money for the end of the quarter.  I’m told that the numbers will be better than Q2.  Warner has also gone on the offensive against David Dreier’s shameful voting record, being one of the first Congressional challengers to use the SCHIP vote as a campaign issue.  That’s going to be a big vote to highlight next year.  Meanwhile Dreier nearly caused an international incident in Colombia by sitting on a lectern, continued to whine about supposedly shoody treatment on the House Rules Committee (yeah, that never happened under Republicans), and had some shady connections with those who were trying to steal the Presidential election with the Dirty Tricks Initiative in California.

Of course, there’s a primary, but Hoyt Hilsman’s campaign website hasn’t been updated since July.  Russ Warner is running a professional campaign, and a good one thus far.

3) CA-50 (Bilbray).  Last month: 4.  Boxer number: 48.  Nick Leibham, who has two nice-looking dogs, is about to get the endorsement of Francine Busby for the Democratic primary, according to our man in San Diego. 

The field has been slowly clearing for a while now, with Michael Wray opting against a run and John Lee Evans running for School Board.  Steve Schechter has also filed FEC paperwork to run in the district, but this endorsement would line up the one major recognizable Democratic face in the district behind Leibham.  Putting to rest any remaining speculation that she might run again, much of the drama is likely over in the primary, leaving now more than a year of Bilbray-hunting.

Avoiding a primary would obviously be a plus for Leibham.  Meanwhile, Bilbray is being his usual brown-hating self, calling on the feds to pay local governments for the services spent on “illegal immigrants.”  This is immigrant bashing at its worst, but while it offends the conscience of the sane, his base is energized by these theatrics.  Leibham will have to do a better job of finding new voters than Busby did to have a shot at this district.

4) CA-24 (Gallegly).  Last month: 3.  Boxer number: 47.  I’m still keeping this race fairly high, maybe higher than it should be, because of the possibility of retirement.  We’ve seen the mass exodus of Republicans from the House, as the prospects for them regaining those plum committee chairmanships grow dim.  Gallegly says he’s running, but he resigned last year before un-resigning, so he’s not that credible a source.  So far, the only challenger in this district is Mary Pallant, who officially declared her candidacy this week.  Pallant is a fellow AD delegate of mine, and a very progressive Democrat.

In announcing her intent to run, Pallant emphasized her stance as a “progressive Democrat,” and invoked Roosevelt in her campaign theme, a Newer and Fairer Deal for the 21st Century. Her platform is described as ending the occupation of Iraq, she said, as well as implementing a universal single-payer healthcare system, seeking energy independence while enforcing environmental protections and pursuing economic strength and security through economic self-sufficiency.

Other candidates seem to be waiting this one out until they see if Gallegly actually runs. Jill Martinez, the candidate in 2006, is rumored to be running again, but hasn’t declared officially.  Brett Wagner kind of says he’s running, but his website hasn’t been updated since February.  Education activist Chip Fraser may run; he once walked from Ventura to the state Capitol to promote education reform.  The district is smaller than that!

5) CA-42 (Miller).  Last month: 5.  Boxer number: 41.  Ron Shepston and his team have been spending September making appearances and raising money.  He did both in a Blue America chat on Firedoglake.  Blue America support has in the past been crucial to Congressional success around the country.  Meanwhile, Gary Miller has been voting for endless war in Iraq and against children’s health care and S-CHIP.  That puts him in line with every other California Republican, but Miller is also incredibly corrupt.  Although, he claims that he is not under FBI scrutiny, which is an inspiring political message.

Miller agreed to an on-the-record, unrecorded interview with The Hill days before the August recess, in which he rejected the
notion that the FBI is investigating him.

On Jan. 31, 2007, the Los Angeles Times reported that Dick Singer, a spokesman for the city of Monrovia, Calif., said federal agents had interviewed city officials about a $10 million land deal in which Miller did not pay capital gains taxes.
Miller says no taxes were owed because he was forced to sell the land under threat of eminent domain.

Miller also pointed out that a “federal agent” could be any federal entity, such as the IRS. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if the IRS had questions after the liberal-leaning group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint to the federal agency against him in August 2006.

“I’m sure the IRS wanted to see the information. A federal agent could be anyone – anyone flashing a badge,” Miller said.

Though there’s not much new to report, these ethics concerns aren’t likely to go away, and a good candidate could capitalize on them, a la Charlie Brown with John Doolittle.

6) CA-44 (Calvert).  Last month: 7.  Boxer number: 45.  The Inland Empire was one of the areas where they were out gathering signatures for the Dirty Tricks initiative, before it cratered, and Ken Calvert was quoted in the article:

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, also favors the system, saying it could help improve the state’s dismal voter-turnout rates. He said presidential candidates from both parties, who have written off California as a lock for the Democrats, would have to campaign in Inland Southern California and across the state.

“They’d have to be here, and that would create excitement,” he said. “People would think their vote matters.”

We’ll see if Bill Hedrick can make any hay out of that next November.  In addition to Calvert’s dismal voting record and serious corruption issues.  Calvert was one of 5 US Congressmen on a junket to the CNMI where rumors of sex tourism abound (Dana Rohrabacher and John Doolittle were on this trip as well).

7) CA-52 (open seat) Last month: 10.  Boxer number: 44.  There are new candidates on the Democratic side in this San Diego-area race.  Former Special Forces regular JIm Hester and ex-Navy SEAL Mike Lumpkin are running.  Lumpkin seems to be keeping a busy schedule and generating a little press, both offline and in the blogosphere; Markos wrote enthusiastically about him.  I still think it’s going to be hard to beat the son of Duncan Hunter, and hard to criticize him while he’s serving in Afghanistan or possibly Iraq.

8) CA-41 (Lewis).  Last month: 6.  Boxer number: 43.  Jerry Lewis has announced that he’s running for re-election again, so that puts the retirement rumors to rest. In addition, he’s managed to get the Justice Department drain the money swamp committed to investigating him:

The veteran prosecutor who’d been heading up the Lewis case has been forced into retirement, The Los Angeles Daily Journal reported yesterday (not available online). It knocks the investigation, already stalled, further off course.

Because of civil-service rules, a 25-year veteran of the U.S. attorney’s office who just recently took over the probe of Rep. Jerry Lewis must exit the office for good by the end of September, marking the third significant departure from the office’s corruption unit since Lewis first came under suspicion last year.

Michael Emmick, who first joined Los Angeles’s U.S. attorney’s office in 1982, has been serving under one-year appointments since 2004, after he triggered a contractual clause that will allow him to collect retirement benefits immediately upon leaving the office.

It’s highly unlikely that the Lewis investigation is going anywhere.  Furthermore, since Lewis will run again, it’s likely that Tim Prince, the likely challenger, won’t.  Worse, Louie Contreras, the candidate in 2006 who didn’t campaign at all past the primary, and may have been hand-picked by Lewis himself as a sock-puppet challenger, appears to be running again.

9) CA-03 (Lungren).  Last month: unranked.  Boxer number: 42.  In my preference to highlight races where there’s actually an announced candidate, I’m highlighting this one.  Dan Lungren is fairly entrenched as an incumbent, but 2006 challenger Bill Durston is running again.  Who knows?  Maybe the Charlie Brown magic will wear off on Durston and propel him to make a race out of it in this Republican district.  Here’s his website.

10) CA-45 (Bono).  Last month: 8.  Boxer number: 49.  I’m breaking my “no candidate” rule because I want to see this potentially competitive district be challenged, and I do believe someone will eventually step up.  But more important than that, I wanted to mention that someone in Congress is named Miss Mary Mack.  Notably, Bono was the only California Republican to vote for SCHIP, which suggests that she knows she has to moderate her views in the district.

Special mention: Because it ought to be mentioned that Dana Rohrabacher thinks the premier of China wants to poison the President.  This guy is in Congress, by the way.