All posts by David Dayen

Two Data Points That Will Change California Permanently

One is national, the other state-specific.  Both of them explain why we’re starting to see traces of jelly in the knees of Republicans as they try to figure out how they’re ever going to win an election again.

Nationally, the new party identification numbers by age group are out from the Pew Center.  These are incredible.

Democrats now hold a 25 POINT advantage among voters aged 18-29.  It is generally assumed that partisan identification hardens with each passing election, and by the time you get someone to vote with a party for the third time in a row, you’ve got them for life.  Over the next five to ten years, we could get that advantage for an entire generation.  This is the chickens coming home to roost (if I can use a phrase so intimately involved with Rev. Wright without accusations of being an angry black liberation theologist) for 30 years of failed Republican policies, and nowhere is that as acute than in California, where Republicans are on the wrong side of the environment, the economy and health care.

The local set of numbers is even more striking.

Forty-nine percent of California’s children between 12 and 17 have at least one immigrant parent, a phenomenon that could dramatically change the composition of the state’s electorate within several years, according to a report released Tuesday.

Of these 1.2 million kids, 84 percent are U.S. citizens, either because they were born here or were naturalized, said Rob Paral, a Chicago-based demographic researcher who prepared the report, “Integration Potential of California’s Immigrants and their Children.”

The report predicts that as these children turn 18, they could help fuel a rise in immigrant voters by 2012.

The combination of these two numbers spell total doom for Republicans.  Young voters are moving rapidly to the Democrats, and millions of California children are reaching voting age, mindful of Republican demonizing on immigration issues and the pain they’ve delivered to their families.  Now think about potentially 30% of the electorate being made up of these children and their legal immigrant families.

The wave is coming, my friends, the wave is coming.

With Republican Support, State Senate Passes Mortgage Relief Bill

Yesterday I noted that even Dan Walters was coming around on budget solutions that addressed the revenue problem.  Today there’s news that Republicans in the State Senate crossed party lines to pass a mortgage relief bill.

SB 1137 would give notice to property residents that the foreclosure process has begun, provide tenants additional time to move from a foreclosed property, and mandate maintenance of foreclosed properties to diminish the impact on the value of neighboring homes.

A previous version of this bill, SB 926, failed on the Senate floor in January when it fell one vote short of passage and faced opposition from the financial services industry. Since then, Senator Perata has addressed industry concerns and produced a more workable bill that has broad support and no known opposition.

One of those Senator who voted for the bill?  Senator Scared as a Chicken in a Fox Cage Jeff Denham.  He actually spoke on the Senate floor in favor of the bill.  That’s no accident: two of the worst-hit counties in terms of foreclosures are in his district (Stanislaus and Merced).  Cox, Maldonado and Wyland joined the majority as well.  The final vote was 28-10.

This is a compromise bill, to be sure (only loans from January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2007 are included), but would provide more transparency and the ability for homeowners to get help before foreclosure, as well as increased notification for renters whose property heads into foreclosure, which is an increasing problem.

What’s notable here is the Republican support, which suggests that they’re starting to feel pressure on issues like the mortgage crisis from their constituents.  The old saw in California politics is that these Republicans are so gerrymandered into their seats that they can’t be moved by public outcry.  I’m not sure that’s true anymore, and it’s something to be recognized as we head into the budget fight.

As for Denham, I think he’s got a bigger problem with his racist campaign manager, but clearly he’s trying to radically backtrack his Senate history and come off as a nice moderate.  Since this week is the deadline for bills to move from the Senate to the Assembly, we’re going to see him tested on a lot of votes in the coming days.

Revenue Solutions Even Dan Walters Can Live With

I think it’s notable that the budget gap is so wide this year that the SacBee’s house conservative Dan Walters felt the need to actually come up with a proposal himself rather than carp and gainsay everyone else’s.  That alone shows you the gravity of the situation and the wideness of the budget hole.  And I have to say, I think Walters came up with some half-decent ideas, or rather bit off some of them from elsewhere:

We devote too much money to prisons, with eight times as many inmates and 20 times as much spending as when we launched California’s massive prison-building program a quarter-century ago. Schwarzenegger is on the right path in suggesting the release of low-security inmates, especially those with drug problems, into treatment and transition programs. Spending $40,000-plus per year to keep a drug addict or a geriatric inmate in prison is ludicrous.

We spend too little on K-12 schools, and we spend it badly. We should raise per pupil spending to at least the national average, which might cost $4 billion to $8 billion more a year. We should also eliminate or consolidate billions of dollars in so-called “categorical” programs and redirect funds toward the kids and schools needing them most and toward proven educational strategies […]

We should expand Hill’s modest recommendations on tax loopholes, ruthlessly closing those whose only bases are political pull or bad habit, to finance what we really need and/or reduce overall tax rates to encourage economic investment.

A $10 billion-plus loophole-closure effort would be justified. But to overcome special interest resistance, we may need an independent commission, such as the one Congress created to close unneeded military bases. While we’re at it, we should rework the tax system to align it with the real economy, such as extending sales taxes to services and reducing the sales tax rate […]

Finally, we should stop financing infrastructure with bonds to be repaid from a deficit-ridden general fund. We should raise gas taxes, impose levee improvement fees on property owners and bill water users for the costs of supplying their needs.

Mostly, we should accept the reality that there’s no free lunch and if we want something from government, we must pay for it.

I excised the more dodgy ideas about increasing student fees on four-year colleges and reining in “out-of-control” public pension obligations.  But there’s a decent amount of common sense here, and it brings into balance the conversation needed about the budget by focusing on services instead of taxes, at least as related to education and water and infrastructure improvements.  The day that a conservative writes “we should accept the reality that there’s no free lunch” is a rare day indeed.

At the same time, there’s a lack of focus here on economic growth and in more innovative budget solutions that would make California a proper 21st-century state.  Judy Chu’s proposal to apply the sales tax in the same manner as New York, Texas and Florida would wipe about $10 billion dollars off the books at the drop of a hat.  The services in question, including health club dues, landscaping, and taxidermy, are in general utilized by the higher-income residents of the state, and thus the taxation will be somewhat progressive.  Moreover, the services California could provide would have a substantial economic impact to practically everyone who lives here.  Indeed, there is no free lunch, and taxes are the dues we pay for a free society.  It’s as patriotic an action as you can make, and those who want to avoid taxes actively hate America and don’t think it’s worth paying for.  As far as I’m concerned, April 15 is Patriot’s Day.  And it can be a windfall for the people of this state if we manage our finances in such a way to provide equal opportunity and economic justice for the 38 million who live here, which will lift up all of us.  Dan Walters is coming around to this, believe it or not.

The Tailpipe Emissions Shell Game

The Bush Administration’s Department of Transportation proposal to raise fuel economy rates faster than Congress mandated last fall comes with a catch – obliterating California’s proposal to regulate tailpipe emissions.  Think Progress has the relevant passage in the report.

(b) As a state regulation related to fuel economy standards, any state regulation regulating tailpipe

carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles is expressly preempted under 49 U.S.C. 32919.

(c) A state regulation regulating tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles, particularly a regulation that is not attribute-based and does not separately regulate passenger cars and light trucks, conflicts with:

1. The fuel economy standards in this Part

2. The judgments made by the agency in establishing those standards, and

3. The achievement of the objectives of the statute (49 U.S.C. Chapter 329)

This actually changes little in the near term.  The EPA has already denied California a waiver to regulate their own emissions, a ruling that is under court appeal.  And the Supreme Court has already ruled on the belief that gas mileage standards and greenhouse gas emissions are separate, and that the states may act to regulate the latter.

Arnold Schwarzenegger and a coalition of governors have acted swiftly:

NHTSA has no authority to preempt states from regulating greenhouse gases.  Congress and two federal district courts have rejected NHTSA’s claim to such authority.  Furthermore, this attack completely undermines the cooperative federalism principles embodied in the Clean Air Act, and is an end run around 40 years of precedent under that law.

Our states intend to comment on the proposed rulemaking and, if necessary, will sue NHTSA, just as California and other states have sued the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to ensure that states retain the right to reduce global climate change emissions…

It just adds to the extreme hackitude that has characterized this Administration’s actions on global warming.  We learned this week that over half of all EPA scientists have “experienced incidents of political interference in their work.”  Now the Department of Transportation gets added to the list.

Odds and Sods 4-23

Post-Pennsylvania and… well, nothing much different actually.  But next time, for sure!  Meanwhile, here are some California-centric notes:

• The California School Employees Association made their endorsements for the June primary.  In addition to Migden, they strike of an aversion to go out on a limb.  They only endorsed one Congressional candidate in a Republican-held seat (Charlie Brown), and they opted out of a lot of contested primaries in the legislative seats as well.  Manuel Perez did get the endorsement in the 80th AD, however (he is a school board member, so not a big shock).

• We don’t get into a lot of rural issues on the site, probably because of the bias toward writers here in urban environments.  But this salmon fishing ban is a big deal along the Mendocino coast.  This actually goes back to the Klamath fish kill in the beginning of the decade and Darth Cheney’s efforts to ensure that.  I think there are going to be a lot of angry fishermen wanting answers this fall.

• I keep forgetting to write about the State Senate primary in my own backyard of SD-23, between Fran Pavley  and Lloyd Levine.  Here’s some background on the race to succeed Sheila Kuehl.  I actually attended an environmental forum with these two last week and found them both to be really solid, with different strengths.  While Pavley is an astonishingly effective lawmaker – she probably has her name on more far-reaching climate change legislation than anyone in the entire country – Levine really seems to understand the nature of the fight in Sacramento and how best to bring about sweeping change.  I’m not going to be disappointed on June 3, regardless of the winner.  We’re hoping to get both Pavley and Levine on a future Calitics Radio show.

• Here’s a user-created video of our debate protest at ABC last week.  We have our own video set for release as well.

• Adam Liptak in The New York Times today: “The United States has less than 5 percent of the world’s population. But it has almost a quarter of the world’s prisoners.”

Yet we must remain “tough on crime,” even though rises and falls in the crime rate are not correlative to imprisoning people (Canada’s rate goes up and down roughly at the same time ours does, without a corresponding increase in the prison population).

• John Yoo won’t talk to the House Judiciary Committee but it’s really not his fault, you see:

In a letter, Yoo’s lawyer told Conyers he was “not authorized” by DOJ to discuss internal deliberations.

“We have been expressly advised by the Office of Legal Counsel of the United States Department of Justice that Professor Yoo is not authorized to discuss before your Committee any specific deliberative communications, including the substance of comments on opinions or policy questions, or the confidential predecisional advice, recommendations or other positions taken by individuals or entities of the Executive Branch,” Yoo’s lawyer, John C. Millian, wrote in a letter to Conyers.

As we all know, the executive branch can ignore subpoenas and prevent Congressional oversight.  Why, Yoo wrote it in a memo!  But he can’t discuss it.  Because the executive branch follows the law.  That he wrote.

Round and round we go…

Recession Update: Record-Setting!

Yes, it’s a new record!

Sinking home values and the collapse of flimsy mortgages sent a record number of California homes into the foreclosure process in the first three months of this year, a real estate information service reported today.

Default notices — the first stage of foreclosure — were sent to owners of 110,000 California homes from January to March, about 1% of the homes in the state, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. Default notices were up 143% from the same quarter a year ago.

Most California homeowners in default are now eventually forfeiting their properties to lenders. Only about 32% of those receiving default notices prevent foreclosure by refinancing or selling their property to pay off their mortgages, DataQuick reported. A year ago, 52% of those in default were able to avoid foreclosure.

If you read between the lines here, the implication is that around 70,000 families are in the process of losing their homes.  In the first quarter 47,000 additional families had their homes repossessed, which is a 400% year-over-year increase.

This is hundreds of thousands of people, and it’s getting to be a significant percentage of the state’s population.  And the federal government is dragging their feet looking for a solution.  And the state can do little beyond stopgap measures.

This is why the budget projections are ballooning.

Enough With the Handwringing

We haven’t delved into the latest voter registration report from the Secretary of State’s office, which shows that Democrats are strengthening in the state while the rise of delcine-to-state voters is completely coming out of the hide of Republicans.  By November it’s clear that we’ll have well over 7 million Democratic voters in California, and possibly under 5 million Republicans.

This isn’t going away and can’t be redistricted into balance.  There is exactly one Republican (thanks, jsw) Congressional or legislative lawmaker in the ENTIRE Bay Area (Guy Houston in AD-15, and that seat will be strongly challenged in November).  Pray tell how redistricting will somehow “remedy” that.  Nationally, the trend toward Democrats is occurring in suburban and exurban districts.  These are the only remaining Republican strongholds, and they’re dissipating.  With the sucky job picture in the state – worse than Pennsylvania or Ohio – and the rise in citizen activism to protest disaster capitalism, this wave is not likely to subside.

The Democratic leadership in Sacramento is trying to cement their legacy in vastly different ways, one with edge-tinkering and the other by demanding that the entire legislature works for change.  The next two elections will use the current legislative district lines regardless of what happens with any redistricting initiative.  This is the moment to capitalize on the trashed GOP brand in the state and across the nation, and capture a 2/3 majority and the governor’s mansion, changing the vote threshold and allowing the legislature to actually govern.

This starts with the SD-12 recall, where Simon Salinas will run a strong campaign and needs to be supported.  It’s a referendum on the GOP.  The fretting about some random initiative is pointless compared to getting a 2/3 majority today.

We Came, We Saw, We Handed Out Flag Pins

OK, so I should mention the results of our Courage Campaign protest yesterday at the ABC/Disney headquarters.  It went really well.  Consider that I had this idea sitting on my couch at 12:00pm Thursday, and by 4:00pm Friday we had 60 or 70 people out there in Burbank.  Considering that in the current age there’s almost an allergy to protest, that’s not bad (especially in gridlocked L.A.), and we were able to get the word out without making one phone call.

I’ll give you the AP’s impression (over):

UPDATE: Here’s coverage from KTLA News:

About 50 people rallied at Disney Studios Friday to protest the questions that ABC News journalists asked the Democratic presidential candidates during a debate earlier this week.

Protestors waved signs that read “Restore the Fourth Estate” and “ABC is TMZ,” referring to the online celebrity site.

Organizer Rick Jacobs criticized ABC for focusing on the past gaffes of Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, instead of issues like the war in Iraq and the American economy.

Jacobs said he was offended that Obama was asked why he hasn’t worn an American flag pin on his lapel.

“Patriotism isn’t defined by a flag pin made in China,” he said.

They didn’t note the most important part of the protest: our distribution of flag pins to employees as they left the ABC gates.  Letting them know that they were getting “free patriotism on a stick” and telling them that “Charlie Gibson won’t approve of you unless you wear one,” we handed out about 300 pins.  Most took them graciously and approvingly.

I’ll direct you to where there are a bunch of pictures and then highlight a few.

That’s me.

My personal favorite sign.

There goes a flag pin.

Breaking news.

Panama Jack Rick Jacobs.

Yes, the pins were made in China.

Also, we shot our own video, but I won’t have that available until Sunday.

Thanks to everyone who came out…  

We’re Ohio Now

I’ll fill you in on the protest soon.  It went very well.  But I’m fortunate enough to be able to go to Burbank at 4:00 on a Friday and protest.  Some of our other fellow Californians aren’t so lucky.  They’re busy trying to find a way to keep their homes and feed their families.  The LA Times has the latest job numbers, and they’re obscene.

California’s unemployment rate rose by a whopping half a percentage point in March, reaching 6.2% as a weakening economy shed jobs in the ailing construction and financial activities sectors. In all, 1.13 million were unemployed […]

California is doing worse than Pennsylvania and Ohio … the two Rust Belt states that have figured prominently in the presidential primary elections because of their lost manufacturing jobs.

If the governor’s budget-cutting plan moves forward and thousands of educators across the state lose their jobs, this will only get worse.  The worst, absolute worst numbers are in the Inland Empire, where construction is at a standstill and housing-related employment is melting away.

The rise in unemployment during March affected all of Southern California, with the worst effects in the Inland Empire. The rate in Riverside County — not seasonally adjusted — rose to 7.4% from 7.0%, while in San Bernardino County it rose to 6.7% from 6.3%.

7.4% isn’t approaching the 1980s just yet, but it’s getting pretty damn close.  And areas like the IE, which don’t have a sustaining support structure for the unemployed or the needy the way that, say, Los Angeles does, are particularly vulnerable.  We’re on the front lines of an economic meltdown that is rapidly expanding.

Good thing we have a bantaaastic governor who gets on the cover of Time magazine!  

We’re marching on ABC/Disney in Burbank today – armed with flag pins!

UPDATE: (Bob) I just got off the phone with David Dayen for the report from the ground. It was kinda tough to hear because all of the horns honking in the background. He said there was a great crowd, KTLA is interviewing a number of them, and they are having a lot of fun passing out the lapel pins. Also, he loved the fact that a Burbank Police Officer came by and told them he was their officer for the night and if they had any problems (with ABC or Disney) to give him a call. I wish I was there, if you can make it they’ll be out there until 7PM.

OK, so everyone’s frustrated with the content-free, brainless ABC News debate the other night.  Chuck Todd actually gets it wrong – it’s not about rabid Obama partisans rising up to hammer ABC, it’s about thinking people rising up and deciding not to accept the thin gruel the media tries to feed us anymore.

The moderators are unrepentant and congenitally wired to not get it.  So we’re going to have to take to the streets – the mean streets of Burbank, California.  We want to know if ABC/Disney executives can pass the Gibson/Stephanopoulos flag pin litmus test – it’s obviously the most important issue facing the nation, so are they sufficiently patriotic?  If not, we’re willing to help them out.

I called up my friends at the Courage Campaign and told them we were uniquely positioned not just to throw things at our TV screen but to do something about this.  The ABC/Disney headquarters is right there in Burbank, and prior to the Path to 9/11 airing, we actually protested out in front of there.

They obviously didn’t get the message, and I figured out the reason why – our flag pin deficit!  Nobody takes you seriously unless you bring 350 symbols of patriotism along with you.

Well, we got ’em.  And now we need your help.

Today at 4:00, we’re going to meet at ABC/Disney’s headquarters in Burbank to protest and pass out flag pins to employees leaving their Disney corporate office.

Your mission: Ask ABC/Disney employees whether they can pass their own flag-pin litmus test: “Are you patriotic enough to wear a flag-pin?”  Obviously they don’t want to be considered as a bunch of America-hating terrorists by their own network news anchors, so of course they require the pin, the shield of immunity from all questions of patriotism.  And maybe we’ll give them a couple extras to give to George and Charlie.

If you’re in the area and available, at 4 p.m. please join me and the Courage Campaign and your fellow activists at ABC’s Disney Studios in Burbank in front of the West Alameda Gate, between S. Buena Vista and Keystone Streets (CLICK HERE FOR A MAP). We’re going to be there until about 7 p.m.

I’ll just leave you with this because it’s fun.

(ultimately these things don’t change a lot of minds; I don’t expect ABC to issue an on-air apology or anything.  But they provide an outlet for frustrations, and create a moment of accountability.  If you or someone you know is in the press, please send them by, too.)