I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my “Partisan Factor” predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my “Partisan Factor”, which is how I predict each competitive district will go.

Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.

Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.

Now for the Senate races. I don’t know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.

Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.

Now onto my final California predictions:

U.S. House

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

State Assembly

Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California’s Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP

(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)

Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP

(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP

(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

That’s what the banner flying over Mitt Romney’s Orange County fundraiser said today. Why?

First it was Wisconsin. Then it was Ohio. Now the Koch Brothers, Karl Rove and the Tea Party have their eyes on an even bigger prize: the eighth largest economy in the world. Home to 35 million people, 10% of the nation’s population. Yep. The ultra-right Koch Brothers with the help of Karl Rove and the Tea Party have just made a major investment in deep blue California.

The Koch Brothers and Karl Rove recently joined the Lincoln Club, Charlie Munger, Jr. and a few other billionaires to buy passage of Prop. 32 in California this November.  If Prop. 32 passes, 3 million members of labor unions will no longer have the ability to participate in politics.  Why? Because Prop. 32 tells the lie that it would get money out of politics in California when what it really does is get worker money out of politics and double down on the ability for corporations and the wealthy to buy their own private legislation.

The Kochs, Mr. Rove and Mr. Munger understand that in this Citizens United world, the only bulwark against a complete takeover by big companies and the uber rich is organized labor (you know the folks that brought you the 40 hour work week and a little thing called the weekend). And the only way members of unions can participate in politics is by signing up for payroll deduction so that their union has the money to fight for or against candidates and ballot measures who seek progress, not an exaggeration of the wealth gap.  Individual union members simply cannot express their voice if they cannot pool their money.  Can you imagine a $12 an hour janitor hiring a lobbyist in Sacramento to fight the Kochs?  Of course not. But 100,000 janitors can pool their money and keep the Kochs and Bain and Mitt Romney from firing them if they get sick or have a baby.

The Kochs and Rove understand that if they can keep union money out of politics, they win hands down. If Prop32 passes in California, one-third of SEIUs political budget is gone, with sizeable chunks taken from the AFL-CIO and just about any other big national union you can think of.  

You may or may not “like unions.” Like any other institution, they are not monolithic, are run by fallible human beings and don’t always move a perfect progressive agenda. But if you care even one whit about the successes we’ve had on maternity and paternity leaves, freedom of speech at the work place, increasing the minimum wage, basic decency between the boss and the worker, then you’d better care a lot about Prop. 32.  

If you cared about Howard Dean having a voice and reshaping politics when he ran for president, you’d better care about this because unions backed him at a crucial time.  If you care about Democrats winning the White House or key congressional elections, you’d better care about this. If you care about building progressive power on the ground, you’d better care about this.

And if you care about taking back our democracy from the super rich and corporations, you better fight against this.  

The Kochs, Mr. Rove, the Lincoln Club (which brought us Citizens United in the first place) and their merry band of billionaires have one goal:  make as much money for as few people for as long as possible. Nothing else matters to them. They don’t really care if their rapacity brings down the nation; they’ll have enough money to live happily ever after behind armed walls, in private jets and on any islands they choose to buy.

We saw what happened in Wisconsin. We see what they are trying to do in state legislatures across this country. The Tea Party, Karl Rove, the Koch’s, ALEC are all trying to beat back democracy, tear down the middle class and destroy unions all in favor of advancing a far right agenda meant to put profits over people.

We in California can put a stop to this. We can say no to the Koch brothers/Karl Rove/RomneyBain and show them that people power can still beat corporate money. We can also tell them that the eighth largest economy in the world is not up to bid to the highest bidder.

For more on the campaign to defeat Prop 32, and for information about how you can join the fight, please click here.

This was crossposted from The Huffington Post.

Childhood risk of Type 2 diabetes, obesity soaring with soda overconsumption

SACRAMENTO — Senate Majority Leader Dean Florez (D-Shafter), who last week introduced legislation aimed at curbing the rampant overconsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, is calling on our Governor and an esteemed former President to confront the issue head-on tomorrow at the 2010 Summit on Health, Nutrition and Obesity.

President Bill Clinton and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger are scheduled to join together tomorrow for a conference at The California Endowment in Los Angeles to promote “Action for Healthy Living.”

Florez is urging them to use the occasion to raise public awareness of the role the overconsumption of sugar plays in exacerbating America’s obesity and diabetes epidemics.

Florez introduced Senate Bill 1210 on Friday, with the number representing the fact that just one 12-ounce can of soda contains ten TEASPOONS of sugar.  Health experts consider 5-7 teaspoons a healthy amount of sugar for an adult to consume in an entire day, yet 62% of adolescents consume at least one soda every day of their young lives, leading to startling rates on Type 2 diabetes in youth.

“I don’t think the average American understands the damage just one soda a day does to a young body, and the degree to which the threat of diabetes increases with each sugary sip.  These two men have the national profile and perfect platform to share information that could save children’s lives,”

Florez said.

“Given the Governor and President’s position on children’s health and physical education, and their partnership in the Alliance for a Healthier Generation, it seems a natural that they would take the opportunity to impress upon kids how critical it is to make this positive change toward healthier lives now.”

Comment: As a diabetic who knows first hand the damage diabetes can cause, well beyond the social stigma and impact on life events, for example: obtaining a job or earning a promotion, this proposed legislation addresses a major health crisis at the core. I am most pleased to see this bill! I know if it passes and becomes law, the damage to your health, or that of your children will be reduced and/or avoided.  Our YOUTH will not be “earning” diabetes before they earn a HIGH SCHOOL DEGREE. Thank You Senator!

(Good stuff! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

This past Thursday evening, nearly 100 Democratic activists got together to kick off the Yolo County Democratic Central Committee’s 2008 Campaign – Yolo United! With the primary season over, we are now uniting to make sure that all of our energy is focused on getting Democrats elected to every seat that represents Yolo County.

We were fortunate to have three of Yolo County’s delegates to the Democratic Convention with us, all of them ready to join together to make sure that we elect Democrats to every local, state, and Federal position on the ballot.

Don Gibson (Clinton delegate), Martha Beetley (Obama delegate), and Ryan Loney (Obama delegate) will be representing us in Denver in August.

Join me below the fold to learn more about the Yolo United Campaign.

Note: I am a volunteer with the Yolo United Campaign.

The Yolo County Democratic Central Committee is putting together a powerful organization for its 2008 Yolo United Campaign. Take a look at the wonderful crowd of Democratic activists who showed up to our kick-off event because they want to help make a difference in this election!

And now a few introductions.

Our campaign is being led by Campaign Chair Claire Black Slotton.

I met Claire shortly after the 2004 election when so many of us were trying to figure out what the heck had happened. Beginning then, Claire was determined to make sure that 2008 will be different. She started an activist book club where we read and discussed works by George Lakoff, CTG, Jeffrey Feldman, the Constitution and Federalist Papers, and even Frank Lunz, to name a few. Claire also worked tirelessly to network with Democrats in Yolo County, ran for and was elected as a delegate to attend the California Democratic Party Convention, and developed a vision for the Yolo United Campaign – and beyond. Claire is in it for the long haul.

So my advice to McCain and his cronies this year – when you see Claire heading your way, be afraid, be very, very afraid. For every inroad you’re planning to make for John McCain in conservative Orange and Placer Counties, we’ll be working on voter registration and GOTV efforts here in Yolo County that will knock you out of the water.  The same goes for Lois Wolk’s Republican opponent in California’s 5th Senate District – Yolo will counter your efforts in San Joaquin County (which overlaps with Jerry McNerney’s district) to make sure that Lois is elected to the CA Senate.

Steve Ybarra is a superdelegate who came to talk to us about the importance of Latino Voters in this election.

Steve came armed with a couple of tools that we’ll all need to face down the Republican machine that, even now, is gearing up to slime Barack Obama and all Democrats as we head into the general election. Those tools? A spine and a helmet. We need to be strong and ready to defend ourselves and our candidates from the onslaught we know is coming. Another tool is our deep understanding that Democratic Party principles – on health care, transparency in government, energy independence, and real security – represent the true values of the American people.

Steve also talked about Nevada’s role as a swing state this year – Latino voters who make up a large percentage of that state’s population are especially important. In 2004, a group from Yolo County raised funds to send volunteers to support Nevada’s Democrats by walking precincts and doing voter registration. Every county where we did this went blue that year. This year, we’ll again be sending volunteers to GOTV in Nevada.

In addition to being a delegate to the Convention, Ryan Loney is also the Northern California Field Director of Students for Barack Obama.

Ryan has already spent many months and countless hours working on Barack Obama’s Campaign. He’s travelled in support of the BO Campaign working on organizing and registering thousands of college students, as well as working on general voter registration efforts. He’ll stay busy until the election, continuing his efforts to mobilize young voters, who are registering as Democrats in unprecedented numbers and will be another key voting group in November.

Judy Tischer is our Neighborhood Leader Chair.

Judy is one of the friendliest, most helpful people you can imagine. She’s going to make sure that precinct captains are trained and ready to knock on doors throughout the County.

Alan Brownstein, a Constitutional Law scholar from the UC Davis School of Law, reminded us of how important this election is for the Supreme Court. The next President will name at least two justices to the Supreme Court. If democracy is to survive in this country, those justices must be named by President Barack Obama. John McCain has promised justices in the mold of Scalia and Alito.

Barbara Archer is our Communications Chair. She’ll work to frame our message throughout the campaign using all of our local media outlets.

Kevin Wolf is our Data Chair. He’ll be training volunteers to use the web-based software for tracking their progress.

Kandice Richardson-Fowler will be revamping a fundraising event formerly called “The Bean Feed.” This event will be another opportunity for all of us to contribute to our Campaign’s success!

Carl Schmid is our Davis Headquarters Chair (and a Charlie Brown supporter!).

Leslie Marcus is our Woodland Headquarters Chair.

To close out the evening, each of our Chairs met with groups of volunteers who were interested in supporting the various functions in the campaign. We had a wonderful evening – everyone left feeling energized and excited.

If you live in Yolo County, come join us in a Campaign with the goal of creating a grassroots tidal wave in Yolo County. We’ve got the organization in place to make sure that we use your energy well! We also understand the value of having fun while we are working hard. Right now, we need someone who can help us get our website up and running.

In 2008, we have fantastic opportunities to turn this country around by participating in local campaigns!

The first thing I want to say is that I am nothing special nor more intelligent then anyone else.  The one thing that I am is an independent thinker who analyzes a situation and acts based upon what I feel is best, as opposed to acting based upon being part of an “in-group”, the “first-group”, the “cool-group”, the “trend-setting group”, or jumping on a bandwagon.  By the way, how many of you saw Robin Williams on Law & Order this evening and the commentary on “sheep” mentality in America?

I have been greatly disappointed in the future of the United States, generally, and each of us, specifically, since John Edwards (the adult wing of the Democratic Party) dropped out of the Presidential race.  I last and only posted on January 30, 2008 re “Unity Will Flow Naturally From Integrity & Credibility” and  on January 21, 2008 re “The Country Needs John Edwards To Stay In The Race All The Way To The Nomination”.  I never intended to post again since it took 25+ years since my disgust with the Democratic Party following the 1980 Presidential Campaign and the defeat of my candidate of choice in the Wisconsin Primary, Jerry Brown, until this past year when the leadership ideas, backbone strength, and bold courage of John Edwards got me excited again in a President and the Democratic Party for the first time since 1980.  However, the recent sequence of events caused me to be unable to stay silent and to at least make a record that I did my part and tried.  I know that there are many other JRE supporters who feel as I do.

Interestingly, in the midst of the Clinton-Obama unveiling during the past few weeks, the Jimmy Carter of 1980 has resurfaced with a meeting with the terrorist organization of Hamas that seeks to push the Israeli’s into the Sea and destroy the State of Israel.  I guess the botched helicoptor blunder-Iranian Hostage Rescue attempt in the Desert that any Israeli military officer could have advised would be a disasterous failure before it ever began was not enough of a legacy for Mr. Carter nor sufficient damage to inflict upon the Democratic Party.

Now, I have to watch as Mr. Obama, the great questioner of the judgment of Ms. Clinton about going into Iraq, now attempts to squirm and slither his way out from under the exercise of his judgment in his chosen faith leader for the last 20 years, including officiating his marriage, performing the baptisms of his two daughters, and inspiring his book.  Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton continues ahead in the pursuit of the very things that John Edwards legitimately questioned during the debates.  Unfortunately, the mainstream corporate media of America and the significant majority of each of us failed ourselves in not questioning each of the candidates with intellectual honesty and legitimate cross-examination.  Instead, it was easier, less work, and more entertaining (and perhaps more self-serving) to jump on the bandwagon and promote the glitz and glamor of a woman and a black man running for President and ignore JRE, except to cover the price of his haircut, the size and cost of his residence, and his connection to a hedge fund.  Meanwhile, now that it is too late we learn that (1) the income of the Clinton’s and Obama’s is consistent with the income of JRE; and (2) per www.opensecrets.org, the connection of JRE pales in comparison to the campaign contributions received by Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama from the hedge fund industry, the health care industry, the insurance industry, lawyers, and lobbyists.  I guess you “gotcha” on the haircuts…nice-going corporate mainstream media and the majority of Americans who either continue to be sheep, motivated by pure selfishness without any regard for our fellow human being, and/or too lazy to think for yourself.

Ohhhhhh, I am sure that many, many wish that JRE was still around.  By the way, neither JRE nor his supporters owe Ms. Clinton or Mr. Obama anything.  The job of Mr. Obama and his campaign and Ms. Clinton and her campaign is, was, and continues to be showing JRE and his supporters why they should put their support behind one of them.  Thus far, Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton and their respective campaigns have failed miserably.  Perhaps, I set the bar too high, but merely saying you are better than John McCain does not cut it.  I could write pages and pages of why John Edwards is the better candidate, as an individual, and the best Democrat to defeat John McCain, but the time for that has come and gone.  I have yet to see any meaningful, credible, showing by either Ms. Clinton or Mr. Obama that they will carry the torch lit by JRE (although neither had any problem stealing his ideas while he was still campaigning).

I then look to our local election and observe the venomous remarks being made in our local Assembly race.  The self-serving agenda behind such remarks is so obvious, while the goal motivating such remarks moves further and further away.

In the middle of 2007, I was very excited for the first time in over 25 years about the future of our country because I finally saw a person who had the courage, intelligence, and strength to lead our country with integrity and honesty motivated by fairness and justice for all.  As we approach the middle of 2008, I am as disgusted as I was in 1980 and I have seen nothing on the national or local level to cause me to feel otherwise.  I am greatly saddened that the same circumstances that launched Reagan into the White House in 1980 will likely launch McCain into the White House…because of a haircut…unbelievable.

I appreciate that some (or maybe many) of you will not like the content and/or tone of this message.  Perhaps, I could have written this more eloquently and been less direct and candid.  I wrote this the only way I know how.  Therefore, I hope that you will take a look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself the tough questions raised by this message before the tempting immediate knee-jerk reaction to just say that I am a jerk expressing sour grapes.  You see, I do not think I am much different than the very people Mr. Obama or Ms. Clinton need to win the Presidency and calling me a jerk or full of sour grapes is going to lead to the other John (McCain) being the next President of our United States of America.

I feel that each of us have failed the generation of our kids.  By the way, the more power, influence, and/or money that you have reflects the greater failure that you have been because you have had a greater opportunity to make a positive difference.  I hope that our kids can overcome our failure.

( – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

With the February 5th primary election approaching rapidly, in which voters in California and 21 other states will pick which presidential candidates represent each party, we have a rare opportunity to make a monumental decision.

For the first time in years, we have an opportunity to elect a president who will give the global climate crisis the level of attention that is required to tackle it.

But how are we to know where the candidates stand on global warming, if reporters simply refuse to ask the right questions? Of the 2,938 questions asked of the presidential candidates since January 2007, just 6 mentioned global warming (source: League of Conservation Voters).

So the California League of Conservation Voters is taking matters into our own hands. Read on….

The California League of Conservation Voters (CLCV) has asked presidential candidates four critical questions about global warming, in short:

1. If elected, will you allow states to lead on global warming, in the way that California has?
2. Will you support a cap on greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2020 and an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050?
3. Will you support an all-out federal/state cooperative effort to rapidly expand investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy?
4. Will you support a federal program to impose maximum technologically feasible, cost-effective controls on ships, trains, and trucks to reduce air pollution that causes global warming and accelerates melting of polar ice caps?

California’s voters, and those throughout the nation, need as much information as possible when deciding which presidential candidate to support. That’s why we’re asking candidates these tough questions.

We’ve asked the presidential candidates to provide their answers by Friday. We’ll let you know before Tuesday what happens.

Read the full text of the questions here. (The press release is here.)

Sign up for CLCV’s e-alert list to be notified when the candidates provide their answers.

(Cross-posted to CLCV Blog and DailyKos — please recommend!)

____________

Jason Gohlke, California League of Conservation Voters