By Randy Bayne

The Bayne of Blog

Just days after a poll by respected polling firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates showed Democratic challenger Bill Durston in a virtual tie with Congressman Dan Lungren for the 3rd Congressional District seat, Lungren’s campaign has released the results of two polls of their own. Unsurprisingly, both polls show Lungen with a sizable lead.

One survey, with a sample size of 400 registered voters in the 3rd Congressional District, showed Lungren with a 47.2 percent to 26.5 percent lead over Durston, an emergency room doctor from Gold River. That survey, completed Oct. 7, was done by pollster Val Smith and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second survey, completed on Oct. 9 of 300 registered voters in the district, gave Lungren a 45-25 edge. Moore Information did that survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent.

Both campaigns are standing by the results of their own polls while they discount the results of the opponent’s.

The Lungren polls each have a rather high, 5% and 6%, margin or error. The Durston poll has a more reliable 4% error margin. A lower margin of error is generally indicative of better reliability.

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates is a highly respected polling firm whose client list includes mostly progressive candidates, groups, and causes. One of the pollsters used by the Lungren campaign, Val Smith, recently did a poll for Tom McClintock showing him leading Charlie Brown in the 4th Congressional District race by 14 percentage points. Most other reputable polls show Brown in the lead. The other Lungren poll was done by Moore Information. Their clients are mostly conservative causes and candidates, including many state Republican parties, and such notable candidates as Richard Pombo.

Polls are only as good as the people doing the polling, the questions asked, the way the questions are asked, the universe of people being polled, and how that universe is defined. These kinds of polls are usually done to illicit particular results to help fund raising efforts and energize supporters. They rarely reflect accurately what can be expected at the polls.

If I had to draw any conclusions from these three polls it would be this. Lungren is not going to have as easy a time in the stretch as he did in 2006. Durston has picked up substantial support and Lungren has lost quite a number to the ranks of the undecided. General dissatisfaction with incumbents is hurting Lungren, as did his vote for the $700 billion bailout package. But, Durston has yet to really define who he is and why we should vote for him, other than he is not Congo Dan. That’s good enough for me and for Durston’s base, but on Election Day it isn’t likely to be enough to put him over the top.

Of significance is the fact that the Durston poll was done earlier — October 4 to 6. The Lungren polls were conducted Oct. 7 and Oct. 9, and were likely a knee jerk reaction in an attempt to discredit the Durston poll. Lungren only polled 300 in one and 400 in the other poll — one reason for the high margins of error. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates asked questions of 500 people for the Durston campaign — a much more reliable sampling.

Very significant is that all three polls have Congo Dan with under 50% — 47% and 45% for the Lungren polls, and 33% in the Durston survey — which is usually very bad news for an incumbent. At this point in the election cycle, an incumbent polling under 50% is in serious trouble.

So, let me bottom line it. Both Durston and Lungren, as well as their supporters, will get the message they want out of these polls — good news about their respective campaigns. Reality isn’t so easy to determine in polls, however; and neither campaign should rest easy, particularly Durston. Lungren is in trouble, but probably not as much as these surveys indicate. This one looks like it is still Lungren’s to lose, but Durston could be the surprise candidate of 2008.

I have been watching the race in CA-03 for well over a year now.  I’ve told my contacts in DC about Bill Durston and tried to get local progressives interested.  The math was undeniable – if there was any seat primed to break through, it was this one.  The demographic shifts mirrored CA-11, and Dan Lungren was arguably a less powerful incumbent than Richard Pombo, with less resources to draw from.  Durston’s first race against Lungren, in 2006, yielded the exact same result as McNerney’s effort in 2004 (around 60-40), and since then the registration gap has tightened significantly (it’s under 3 points and by election day it’ll be closer to even).

After a long year of banging this drum, finally, Bill Durston is earning some respect.  Today he appears on the DCCC’s Red To Blue Emerging Races page.  This isn’t quite enough to put Durston over the top, but it is a recognition that the seat is competitive.

You ought to support Dr. Durston at the Emerging Races page or the Calitics ActBlue page.  He’s a better Democrat who will fight to responsibly end the occupation of Iraq and provide quality affordable health care for all.  He has a great team of grassroots supporters up there and I hope this makes them realize that their efforts are being recognized and rewarded.

…this comes at a time when the Lungren campaign is actually touting polls with small sample sizes showing the incumbent under 50%.  This one is going to be close if Durston can get his message out in the final three weeks.

A lot to cover today:

General: I suspended the monthly ratings because it was ridiculously time-consuming and better to get the information out more timely, but in case you’re wondering, here is my impression of the top targets in California for the Congressional races as we stand with 22 days out.  My considered opinion is that no incumbent Democrat is in trouble, including Jerry McNerney.  As for the Republican-held seats:

1) CA-04: Lean Dem. Charlie Brown has been ahead in multiple polls and actually has a ground game, unlike Tom McClintock.

2) CA-03: Tilt Repub. Bill Durston’s poll showing the race as a dead heat raised a lot of eyebrows.  Unfortunately people discovered this race too late, but by Election Day I’ll bet that the registration numbers are virtually tied and there will not be an immediate call.  The smart money for progressives wanting to impact a race should go to Dr. Durston against Dan Lungren.

3) CA-46: Tilt Repub.  Debbie Cook is replicating the Loretta Sanchez strategy of ground mobilization that she used to defeat B-1 Bob Dornan.  We’ll see if she can pull it off against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher.

4) CA-26: Tilt Repub. Russ Warner has been doing a decent enough job and there’s a bit of outside support, but David Dreier has a wall of money.

5) CA-45: Lean Repub. This race has also been under the radar, but the district is either #1 or #2 in the COUNTRY for foreclosures, and affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein can stand to benefit from movement toward Democratic solutions on the economy in her race against Mary Bono Mack.

6) CA-50: Lean Repub. This is the permanent tease district in California, and despite Nick Leibham’s efforts to shake up the race, I’m not seeing Brian Bilbray taken down right now, especially because he’s likely to whip up populist support in his base with his vote against the bailout.

7) CA-52: Likely Repub. It was always going to be an uphill battle for Mike Lumpkin in his race against Duncan Hunter’s son running for Duncan Hunter’s old seat.  I’d like to see better signs here, but I’m coming up empty.

I rate everything else as Safe Republican at the moment.  I’ll do a legislative targeting in the next campaign update.  Now, to the news (on the flip):

• CA-03: Faced with a tie race, Dan Lungren’s campaign has decided that the smart thing to do is name calling.

A spokesman for U.S. Rep. Dan Lungren’s (R-Gold River) congressional campaign said Bill Durston was mischaracterizing Lungren’s absence from a candidate forum last weekend.

On top of that, he referred to Durston, a Democrat from Gold River, as a “knucklehead.”

They actually don’t believe Durston’s viable.  Hilariously, Lungren gave out a bunch of tickets to a Bonnie Raitt concert in the district, and during the show Raitt endorsed Durston and urged people to vote.

This would be such a delicious upset, and the contours of it remind me exactly of Carol Shea-Porter’s improbable victory in New Hampshire in 2006.

• CA-04: The competitors actually showed up at a 4th District debate last week, and Charlie Brown got off a great line:

In the heavily Republican district, where he narrowly lost to Doolittle two years ago, Brown faced an audience question over whether he would “stand up to Nancy Pelosi” and her “liberal positions.” […]

While Brown said he disagreed with the Democratic house speaker from San Francisco on rights of gun owners, McClintock went after him.

“This issue of marching in lockstep with her on every major issue in the campaign speaks to the fact that she has targeted your congressional district as one of those seats they want to cement a permanent Democratic majority,” McClintock said. “And I think they’re counting on your vote, Charlie.”

Brown, a district resident in Roseville, answered back with a poke at McClintock for running in a district 400 miles north of his Senate seat in Thousand Oaks.

“Tom, if you want to run against Nancy Pelosi (in San Francisco),” Brown said, “that district is actually closer than this one to your home.”

• CA-45: Julie Bornstein, on the other hand, debated an empty chair recently in Rancho Mirage.  Mary Bono Mack has refused any effort to get her to debate Bornstein.  Perhaps she’s busy with her husband in Florida.

Bornstein came prepared. When she was given the opportunity to address the absentee incumbent in her closing remarks, Bornstein came out firing.

“This is a job interview,” she said, asking Bono Mack, “How is it that you feel that you do not need to meet with your constituents?”

“There is no sense of entitlement here,” Bornstein told voters, “that somehow your vote is already predetermined, that you owe it to a party or a person. One of the first lessons I learned when I became a working person is that you have to show up. You have to be here. And my question to my opponent is, where are you?”

They tracked Bono Mack down at a party during the forum.  Bornstein, who this weekend welcomed Barbara Boxer in for a fundraiser, parried a Republican attempt to protest that event in much the same way, by saying that she “welcomed debate.”  Often these debate-baiting tactics aren’t that successful, but I don’t think this is a good year to be an absentee incumbent.

• CA-11: Another duo got together for a little chat this weekend, Dean Andal and Jerry McNerney.  There’s some interesting stuff in there – Andal apparently thinks it’s “immoral” to support a safe and responsible withdrawal of troops from Iraq.  But what’s more interesting is that Andal finally, two weeks after the bailout, came up with an opinion on it.  He was opposed, in case you were wondering.  Talk about political cowardice, waiting that long to express an opinion.

• CA-46: Debbie Cook has a new ad.

I have to say that I kind of like it.  The “asteroids” thing is kind of tacked on, but the rest of it is sufficiently hard-hitting and affixes Dana Rohrabacher to the problems created by 8 long years of Republican failure.  The Cook campaign has Jim Dean from DFA coming into the district for a fundraising breakfast and precinct walk this Sunday.  More information here.

By Randy Bayne

The Bayne of Blog



In spite of a recent poll showing only 33% support for incumbent Congressman Dan Lungren, his campaign “is not convinced his candidate has anything to worry about.” Congo Dan is so sure he will win the 3rd Congressional District race that he missed the Asian Pacific Islanders Public Affairs Association (APAPA) forum over the weekend. The reason given was business in Washington, but Congo Dan did make it to a fund raiser in Murphys later that same day.

It was reported by supporters of Dr. Bill Durston, the Democratic challenger, that Congo Dan enticed people to the fund raiser with tickets to a Bonnie Raitt show at Ironstone Vineyards, writes Ben van der Meer.

Raitt, a well-known supporter of Democratic and left-wing causes, said at the concert that night that the Nov. 4 election was one of the most important in history – and told attendees to vote for Durston, an emergency room doctor and Democrat from Gold River, according to Durston’s campaign.

It is natural for an incumbent campaign to discount poll numbers – no matter how reputable the polling firm – that show the campaign tied with the challenger and I-don’t-know just one month out from election day with voting already started. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates, who conducted the poll between October 3 and 4, is a very reputable firm, and Congo Dan should realize that these numbers indicate real attitudes or real voters. Of course, it is better for Dr. Durston that he doesn’t.

The national news and local impact of the mortgage and housing crisis, the stock market crash, and just the general financial situation should have incumbents across the board worried – particularly those who have sided with the Bush Administration over the years, as Congo Dan has done. Today, President Bush basically told Americans “don’t worry, be happy,” that everything will be fine. Easy advice when your headed out the door. The point, voter sentiment isn’t favoring incumbents. I don’t want to wander to far off my point, but wasn’t the so-called bailout supposed to fix everything?

When voters were told about Congo Dan’s vote for the $700 billion federal bailout of major financial institutions, and the contributions he has received from oil companies and banks, Durston’s numbers went up to 43 percent while Congo Dan’s remained steady at 34 percent.



Not only is Congo Dan in some stage of denial, but his campaign, if not he himself, is resorting to the kind of immature behavior indicative of an arrogant campaign believing it could not be defeated now facing the prospect of losing – avoidance and name calling. Congo Dan still refuses to face Dr. Durston in a one-on-one debate, and Lungren’s campaign is calling Dr. Durston a “knucklehead.” Here is the quote from Tim Clark, a campaign spokesman and strategist for Lungren, as recorded by Ben van der Meer.

“He’s doing what he needs to do to get attention, regardless of how true it is,” Clark said, before saying a second time, “Durston’s a knucklehead.”

Not bad on the big scale of things, but it does reveal just how much contempt Congo Dan has for Dr. Durston. Believe me, it is a lot. He won’t even talk to Dr. Durston and has avoided debating him this election cycle. In town hall meetings, Lungren avoids calling on Dr. Durston. The one time he did call on Dr. Durston, his was the only hand up for a comment and Lungren addressed him with utter comtempt and ridicule.

Admittedly, I started this campaign rather doubtful that Dr. Durston could prevail. But given recent events and the foolishness of the Lungren campaign, I may have to revise my earlier sentiments. Durston still has an uphill battle. There are a lot of undecided voters to convince, but they seem to be turning his way, and if Congo Dan stays on his present course they may just go Durston’s way. One thing is for certain – November 4 is going to be very interesting.

And away we, er, go.

• CA-03: Bill Durston, who is showing lots of strength in his race against Dan Lungren, has earned the support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, a 3.5 million-member group of retirees.  Clearly this came on the heels of Durston’s strong support for a not-for-profit health care system:

Dr. Durston has also been a strong proponent of universal health care. “It’s always been my philosophy that access to necessary medical care is a basic human right, not a privilege based on one’s ability to pay. We’re the only western industrialized country in the world that doesn’t have some form of universal health care, yet we pay twice as much per capita as the other countries for medical care.”

Durston is starting to get some major attention after that last poll.  Expect him to attack Lungren on his vote for the bailout over the next 27 days.

• CA-04: Lots going on here.  After vowing to shut down his account for 2010 statewide races, professional politician Tom McClintock just couldn’t close the door.

But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock’s account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.

McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.

His Democratic opponent, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, made hay of McClintock’s multiple accounts over the summer, calling him a career politician in search of a job.

“What office are you running for?” Brown said in a July statement.

I just find it interesting that Republicans are that worried about Jack Sieglock.  Go Alyson Huber!  Of course, the other half of this is that McClintock is a huge hypocrite, but you knew that.

In other news, Charlie Brown has a new ad out comparing professional politician McClintock to his record of service.  Truth Fights Back, John Kerry’s group, is getting Charlie’s back over that ridiculous anti-military smear of McClintock’s.  Brown also signed the Children’s Defense Council’s Pledge to ensure affordable health care for every child and every pregnant woman.  I very much liked this strong take in the press release:

“Tom McClintock gets free healthcare, a free car, free gas, and tax free per diems he’s not entitled to, yet has voted to restrict the ability of Californians to see a doctor of their choice and fought against helping our most vulnerable citizens  access meaningful healthcare coverage,” said Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown  “His record of inaction has not only helped drive up the cost of healthcare for every Californian, it’s illustrative of a career politician hypocrite who would rather serve himself, than solve problems.”

Earlier this year, McClintock authored SB 1669, which would have made it easier for health insurance companies to deny the health claims of Californians on the basis of pre-existing condition.  In fact, SB 1669 would have extended the period that insurers could look back in your medical history from 12 months to 10 years.  

“Tom McClintock’s idea of healthcare reform is writing a law that says if you have a medical problem, you can’t get healthcare coverage,” Brown said.  “This misguided bill  could have literally cost millions of Californians who have battled and overcome ailments ranging from diabetes, to mild cardiac conditions or cancer their lives.  It was so misguided, it never came up for a floor vote and not a single healthcare organization or institution signed on to support it.

Also, Mcjoan at the Great Orange Satan had a good piece based on some of her time in the district recently.  This is big:

The campaign has seven offices across the nine counties in the huge district, one of the most beautiful in the country, spanning the Sierras. With four regional field directors, seven organizers and 25 paid canvassers, the campaign has knocked on more than 120,000 doors and made over 300,000 phone calls. Hundreds of new Democrats have been registered. This is the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to win in Republican districts, in fact it’s about the only way to run successfully in a tough district. McClintock, by contrast, has basically no field operation.

That ground game is going to win it for Charlie.

• CA-11: Continuing his quest to be the most overhyped Republican challenger this cycle, Dean Andal continues to dodge the question of whether or not he supported the Paulson bailout plan.  He literally has no idea how to handle it, preferring to hide behind the idea that it would be inappropriate to comment because he’s not in office.  Yeah, uh, that’s kind of the point.  You say how you would be different from the current office-holder as a means to get the job.  What a loser.

• CA-41, CA-45: Haven’t written much about Tim Prince’s race in San Bernardino County against Jerry “Lobbyists Are Funding My Congressional Portrait” Lewis, but somehow his campaign got the local paper to call it a tough race.

Prince criticized Lewis’ use of earmarks, the pet projects that lawmakers attach to spending bills, in some cases without a vote.

“Jerry Lewis is totally void of morality when it comes to earmarks,” he said, pointing to Lewis’ ties to Bill Lowery, a longtime friend and lobbyist. “When I’m congressman, the mayor of Beaumont and the mayor of Apple Valley can pick up the phone and call me for help. They don’t have to call a lobbyist who happens to be my best friend.”

One thing that Prince would be better advised to focus on is that his district has one of the highest rates of foreclosures in the entire country.  The highest?  CA-45, where Mary Bono-Mack is facing affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein.  If there was ever a reason to create a single-issue candidacy, this is it, and for Bornstein, who has an easier time of it with a less partisan electorate, that could be a real opening in the final month.

• SD-19: Calitics Match candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is attacking Tony Strickland for greenwashing his environmental credentials in a very, shall we say, familiar way:

Of course, I’m happy to have provided the template for calling out Strickland on this nonsense.  There are in addition lots of IE attacks in this race as it nears the home stretch.

An internal poll shows Bill Durston in a statistical dead heat with Dan Lungren.  From the email to supporters:

We’ve just received great news from a poll of 500 likely voters conducted by the respected polling firm, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates. Dr. Bill Durston is in a statistical dead heat with Dan Lungren in California’s 3rd Congressional District!

When voters were asked who they would vote for if they were to vote today, 33% chose Lungren, 30%, chose Bill, 7% chose another candidate, and 30% were undecided. With a margin of error of 4%, the differences between Bill and Lungren were not statistically significant.

After hearing a positive profile about both Lungren and Bill, the tallies were even closer – 39% for Lungren and 38% for Bill. After hearing about some of Lungren’s many shortcomings, including his Hawaii vacation paid for by special interests, his allegiance to the Bush-Cheney administration, and his fondness for taking money from Big Oil, voters chose Bill over Lungren by a margin of 43% to 34%, a difference which is highly statistically significant.

This shouldn’t surprise anybody.  CA-03 is the seat with the smallest registration gap between the parties that’s currently held by a Republican, and by November I’ll be willing to bet that gap will be almost erased.  Durston won’t have all the money to get out the “balanced” information about him and his opponent, but he will be competitive.

This could be a good time for outside groups to jump in.  CA-03 is one of those under-the-radar seats nationwide that is very, very winnable, and a late push could easily put Durston over the top.  Furthermore, he’s a solid progressive Democrat who supports single-payer.  At least one group is helping out.  Bill Durston is one of the over 100 Progressive Patriots who are benefiting from Russ Feingold’s efforts.  Russ Warner (CA-26) was added to the Progressive Patriots “Expand the Map” program today, and Charlie Brown and Jerry McNerney are members as well.

This would be a good time to support Bill Durston.  

(Another great progressive Democrat is Dr. Bill Durston in CA-03.  Help him out, and then give to our Calitics Match.  We’re over halfway to our goal! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

There are now two Durston for Congress (CA-03) ads that are running on both cable and network TV.  They have been very effective and we need to keep them running in order to reach the nearly 400,000 voters in Bill’s district!!

If you haven’t seen them yet, click on the pics below to take a look and let us know what you think.

Leadership, Courage, and Commitment

You can make a contribution on the secure Act Blue pages (click on the pics).  Your contribution of any amount will help the voters of Congressional District 3 see that we have an excellent alternative to the carpetbagging, Bush/Cheney supporting, career politician who currently represents this district (That’s Dan Lungren for those of you lucky enough to live outside the district – we’d love to send him back to Long Beach with your help! – sorry LB folks ;o)).






Politics as Usual

We are also phonebanking and walking precincts 7 days a week from our Fair Oaks office.  We even have a virtual phone bank option for those outside our district that would like to make calls from the comfort of their homes.  Send us an email if you’d like to help us put Bill over the top!

Please join Bill Durston supporters from all over California as we send Lungren packing his bags and put a true Progressive in Congress!!

Cheers,

Bill Lackemacher

916.812.1794

Field Director

Bill Durston for Congress

www.DurstonForCongress.org

Ps: For those interested in Bill Durston’s opinion of the Financial Bailout, check out his Op-Ed that he wrote last week.