Daily Archives: May 23, 2008

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SD-23: Some Lame Mailers

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SD-23 junk mailThe region around SD-23 is getting hit really hard with some just atrocious mail. Not only do they get the mail for the “Collosal Waste of Paper” Race in SD-23, they also get mail from the “Even Bigger Waste of Paper” Race in AD-40.  There are trees in Indonesia currently begging for mercy. Vote for Pavley or the Polar Bear Gets it? Maybe, but those trees already bit the dust.

The first ad is from Pavley’s campaign, calling Levine the “King of the Luxury Junkets.” I love the cute little crown hung from his head, but I gotta tell you, the ad just really doesn’t do it for me. I’m not sure who this one convinces. I suppose you could get a few people concerned about “lobbyist money,” but not

But, if that’s the case, Levine’s ad hits the mark.  It’s a simple explanation of who is paying for the Carbon-Free Pavley Ads. The answer is EdVoice, but the Carbon-Free Campaign has got to be one of the worst mail campaigns.  Do the people doing those campaigns think voters aren’t going to wonder about the carbon that it takes to print and mail the 7 mailers that get delivered talking about this magnificent carbon-free campaign.  

SD-23 junk mail cropped Nonetheless, I doubt that too many of these “who paid for these” really get too far. It seems a bit insider baseball for people to really put the effort into sorting all these mailers out. In the end, all this mail ends up clogging landfills or just being recycled (hopefully).

It sure would be great if these IEs and the campaigns could at least send some worthwhile campaign crap.  I know some campaigns are giving out potholders or other such useful items.  I mean, if we are going to be spending all this money anyway, why not print the mailer up on, say a reusable shopping bag, or a roll of paper towels. (Of recycled paper and printed with soy ink, of course.)

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“The Cardoza 40” and the End of the Primary

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Al Giordano at The Field is now reporting that the Cardoza switch to Obama (he was previously a Clinton superdelegate) is the beginning of a major exodus of 40 Clinton superdelegates to Obama (Update: as noted in the blockquote, the 40 number includes pledged delegates as well):

The Field has learned that Cardoza is the first of a group of at least 40 Clinton delegates, many of them from California, that through talking among themselves came to a joint decision that all of them would vote for Obama at the convention. They have informed Senator Clinton that it’s time to unite around Obama, and that they will be coming out, one or two at a time, and announcing their switch between now and the convention if Senator Clinton doesn’t do the same.

Cardoza is one of the leaders of this effort (which includes not only superdelegates, but here’s something that should set off some paranoia in Camp Clinton: there are pledged Clinton delegates in “The Cardoza 40,” too). One Field Hand reports that during a recent Cardoza fundraising event in California the effort was discussed openly in front of other Democrats. Cardoza’s announcement, today, sent the message that the effort is serious and for real.

I don’t quite understand the logic of dribbling out the endorsements between now and the friggin’ convention – better to come out as a bloc and have done with it – but no matter how they do this it’s clear that the Democratic primary process is over and Barack Obama is the nominee. Yes, that’s been the case for some time, but with this shift it finally seems over.

And the timing of the announcement may be related to Hillary’s Calvinball approach to the MI and FL delegations, as Cardoza explained (quoted at The Field):

I am deeply concerned about the contentious primary campaign and controversy surrounding the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan – two states Democrats need to win in November. I will not support changing the rules in the fourth quarter of this contest through some convoluted DNC rules committee process. Yet, we must find a resolution to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates so these states’ voters are represented at the Convention. I believe we need to avoid this potentially divisive situation by uniting behind one nominee and bringing the party together immediately. Therefore, I have made the decision to support Senator Obama at the Democratic Convention in my role as a super delegate.

One of the fascinating things about this campaign is that since the week before South Carolina, everything she did to try and win voters has wound up backfiring and driving more Democrats – particularly electeds, but also African Americans – into Obama’s camp. That’s not to deny Obama’s appeal to voters and his amazing organizational power – but Hillary rarely helped her own cause, and her ridiculous comments about MI and FL seem to have finally ended her last, dim chances at winning the nomination.

Reduced to pleading for the vice presidential post, the Clinton campaign had better start figuring out the best way to concede the nomination to Obama if they are to have any hope of salvaging her reputation.

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Tornadoes in the Inland Empire. Seriously.

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Weird weather down in SoCal?  No kidding.  The LA Times has video of tornadoes touching down in Moreno Valley, a community in San Bernardino County.

I grew up in Riverside–pretty close to the area under discussion–and while we had our fair share of heavy rain every late winter/early spring, and even some hail, I don’t remember ever seeing anything like this.

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Santa Cruz Summit Fire Update

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Santa Cruz FireThe Santa Cruz Summit Fire was whipped yesterday by strong winds and dry conditions.  Typically, the fires season doesn’t start in mid-May, but a dry March and April mean that there is a lot of fuel.  The winds were gusting up to 40-50mph yesterday, so the fire spread quickly.  Winds have settled down somewhat today, and firefighters have been able to make progress on the fire.

Firefighters estimate that up to 10,000 acres might burn, with several houses in the path of the fire. Our best out to those in the area.

The Santa Cruz Sentinel is keeping an eye on the fire.

Arnold Schwarzenegger

LAT Baseline Poll on Gay Marriage – Better Than It Looks

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People are probably going to fixate on the hard numbers in this latest poll on marriage equality from the LA Times, showing the constitutional amendment passing by 54-35.  However, there are a few additional items to consider.

• We all know that initiatives need to be well ahead to start before the advertising ramps up and the No side chips away at the lead.  This poll would traditionally signal an initiative in the danger zone.  However, the initial polls for Prop. 22 in 2000 were at 58%, and it rose to 61% by election day.  Opinions may be fairly hardened on this one.

• In the internals, however, there is much good news for marriage equality advocates.  

More than half of Californians said gay relationships were not morally wrong, that they would not degrade heterosexual marriages and that all that mattered was that a relationship be loving and committed, regardless of gender.

That’s really, really good news.  54% say same-sex relationships are not morally wrong, and 59% say that “as long as the two love each other, it doesn’t matter” what gender the two people are.  It suggests that the only hurdle is the terminology of “gay marriage,” based on lingering tradition.  I think that can be cleared to a degree.

• There’s more confirmation that this is generational.

Overall, the proportion of Californians who back either gay marriage or civil unions for same-sex couples has remained fairly constant over the years. But the generational schism is pronounced. Those under 45 were less likely to favor a constitutional amendment than their elders and were more supportive of the court’s decision to overturn the state’s current ban on gay marriage. They also disagreed more strongly than their elders with the notion that gay relationships threatened traditional marriage.

Considering that the likely Presidential nominee is poised to bring Americans under 45 to the polls in record numbers, it’s certainly better to be on the side that appeals to them.

• If Arnold’s opposition to the measure is publicized, which is likely, that does seem to change minds:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has vetoed two bills sanctioning gay marriage, has said that he respects the court’s decision and that he will not support a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Californians were split on his stance, with 45% agreeing and 46% disagreeing.

I think this is a pretty good place to be considering the circumstances.  The marriage equality movement has powerful advocates and the weight of justice and fairness on their side.  It’s whether enough people have gotten used to the concept by November.  I think the poll shows that’s very possible.

Uncategorized

LAT Baseline Poll on Gay Marriage – Better Than It Looks

People are probably going to fixate on the hard numbers in this latest poll on marriage equality from the LA Times, showing the constitutional amendment passing by 54-35.  However, there are a few additional items to consider.

• We all know that initiatives need to be well ahead to start before the advertising ramps up and the No side chips away at the lead.  This poll would traditionally signal an initiative in the danger zone.  However, the initial polls for Prop. 22 in 2000 were at 58%, and it rose to 61% by election day.  Opinions may be fairly hardened on this one.

• In the internals, however, there is much good news for marriage equality advocates.  

More than half of Californians said gay relationships were not morally wrong, that they would not degrade heterosexual marriages and that all that mattered was that a relationship be loving and committed, regardless of gender.

That’s really, really good news.  54% say same-sex relationships are not morally wrong, and 59% say that “as long as the two love each other, it doesn’t matter” what gender the two people are.  It suggests that the only hurdle is the terminology of “gay marriage,” based on lingering tradition.  I think that can be cleared to a degree.

• There’s more confirmation that this is generational.

Overall, the proportion of Californians who back either gay marriage or civil unions for same-sex couples has remained fairly constant over the years. But the generational schism is pronounced. Those under 45 were less likely to favor a constitutional amendment than their elders and were more supportive of the court’s decision to overturn the state’s current ban on gay marriage. They also disagreed more strongly than their elders with the notion that gay relationships threatened traditional marriage.

Considering that the likely Presidential nominee is poised to bring Americans under 45 to the polls in record numbers, it’s certainly better to be on the side that appeals to them.

• If Arnold’s opposition to the measure is publicized, which is likely, that does seem to change minds:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has vetoed two bills sanctioning gay marriage, has said that he respects the court’s decision and that he will not support a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Californians were split on his stance, with 45% agreeing and 46% disagreeing.

I think this is a pretty good place to be considering the circumstances.  The marriage equality movement has powerful advocates and the weight of justice and fairness on their side.  It’s whether enough people have gotten used to the concept by November.  I think the poll shows that’s very possible.

Uncategorized

LAT Baseline Poll on Gay Marriage – Better Than It Looks

People are probably going to fixate on the hard numbers in this latest poll on marriage equality from the LA Times, showing the constitutional amendment passing by 54-35.  However, there are a few additional items to consider.

• We all know that initiatives need to be well ahead to start before the advertising ramps up and the No side chips away at the lead.  This poll would traditionally signal an initiative in the danger zone.  However, the initial polls for Prop. 22 in 2000 were at 58%, and it rose to 61% by election day.  Opinions may be fairly hardened on this one.

• In the internals, however, there is much good news for marriage equality advocates.  

More than half of Californians said gay relationships were not morally wrong, that they would not degrade heterosexual marriages and that all that mattered was that a relationship be loving and committed, regardless of gender.

That’s really, really good news.  54% say same-sex relationships are not morally wrong, and 59% say that “as long as the two love each other, it doesn’t matter” what gender the two people are.  It suggests that the only hurdle is the terminology of “gay marriage,” based on lingering tradition.  I think that can be cleared to a degree.

• There’s more confirmation that this is generational.

Overall, the proportion of Californians who back either gay marriage or civil unions for same-sex couples has remained fairly constant over the years. But the generational schism is pronounced. Those under 45 were less likely to favor a constitutional amendment than their elders and were more supportive of the court’s decision to overturn the state’s current ban on gay marriage. They also disagreed more strongly than their elders with the notion that gay relationships threatened traditional marriage.

Considering that the likely Presidential nominee is poised to bring Americans under 45 to the polls in record numbers, it’s certainly better to be on the side that appeals to them.

• If Arnold’s opposition to the measure is publicized, which is likely, that does seem to change minds:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has vetoed two bills sanctioning gay marriage, has said that he respects the court’s decision and that he will not support a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Californians were split on his stance, with 45% agreeing and 46% disagreeing.

I think this is a pretty good place to be considering the circumstances.  The marriage equality movement has powerful advocates and the weight of justice and fairness on their side.  It’s whether enough people have gotten used to the concept by November.  I think the poll shows that’s very possible.

California

Multiple Union and Democratic Club Endorsements for Pat Meagher for Congress in the 41st

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Pat Meagher, Progressive Democratic Candidate for the 41st Congressional District, has received endorsements from multiple Union and Democratic Clubs.  A Forest Falls resident and Principle of Fontana Adult School he has gathered the support of the Mojave Desert Democratic Club, East Valley Democratic Club, Stonewall Democratic Club,

Greater Rialto Dual Endorsement, Desert Hot Springs Democratic Club and The Democratic Club of Big Bear Valley. His Union endorsements include IBEW Local 440, UAW Region 5 Western United States CAP Council, California Labor Federation’s Committee on Political Education (COPE), San Bernardino/Riverside Central Labor Council, AFL-CIO, San Bernardino/Riverside Building and Trades Council, and International Union of Operating Engineers Local 12.

This father of nine, seven of whom are adopted, has also gotten the attention of Progressive Democrats of America Dr. Bill Honigman, So CA State Organizer, who was the Keynote speaker at Pat Meagher’s fundraising event held at University of Redlands. Ahjamu Makalani evoked Meagher’s name and sloganas an inspiration to a standing room only crowd at the State Democratic Convention PDA Caucus.  Meagher embraces the entire PDA platform including their current campaign for Healthcare Not Warfare.

The war is real for the Meagher family.  Their newly married son will be returning to Iraq this summer for a second tour, as well as a daughter whose first tour was in Afghanistan.  To thunderous applause at Arlington West Santa Monica following Col. Ann Wright (Ret), Meagher declared “Don’t tell me I don’t support the troops.  Those are my kids. It is time to bring our glorious and victorious troops home!”

Col. Ann Wright, 29 year Army Veteran, 13 year United States Diplomat, was so impressed after meeting with Meagher that she adjusted her schedule in order to share the podium with him when he announced his candidacy to a crowd of community leaders and peace and justice activists from the Inland Empire at the Carriage House in Redlands.

Pat Meagher is proud that his campaign is funded through grassroots supporters who believe he is the best man to represent their concerns in Washington DC.  

   

Uncategorized

Multiple Union and Democratic Club Endorsements for Pat Meagher for Congress in the 41st

Pat Meagher, Progressive Democratic Candidate for the 41st Congressional District, has received endorsements from multiple Union and Democratic Clubs.  A Forest Falls resident and Principle of Fontana Adult School he has gathered the support of the Mojave Desert Democratic Club, East Valley Democratic Club, Stonewall Democratic Club,

Greater Rialto Dual Endorsement, Desert Hot Springs Democratic Club and The Democratic Club of Big Bear Valley. His Union endorsements include IBEW Local 440, UAW Region 5 Western United States CAP Council, California Labor Federation’s Committee on Political Education (COPE), San Bernardino/Riverside Central Labor Council, AFL-CIO, San Bernardino/Riverside Building and Trades Council, and International Union of Operating Engineers Local 12.

This father of nine, seven of whom are adopted, has also gotten the attention of Progressive Democrats of America Dr. Bill Honigman, So CA State Organizer, who was the Keynote speaker at Pat Meagher’s fundraising event held at University of Redlands. Ahjamu Makalani evoked Meagher’s name and sloganas an inspiration to a standing room only crowd at the State Democratic Convention PDA Caucus.  Meagher embraces the entire PDA platform including their current campaign for Healthcare Not Warfare.

The war is real for the Meagher family.  Their newly married son will be returning to Iraq this summer for a second tour, as well as a daughter whose first tour was in Afghanistan.  To thunderous applause at Arlington West Santa Monica following Col. Ann Wright (Ret), Meagher declared “Don’t tell me I don’t support the troops.  Those are my kids. It is time to bring our glorious and victorious troops home!”

Col. Ann Wright, 29 year Army Veteran, 13 year United States Diplomat, was so impressed after meeting with Meagher that she adjusted her schedule in order to share the podium with him when he announced his candidacy to a crowd of community leaders and peace and justice activists from the Inland Empire at the Carriage House in Redlands.

Pat Meagher is proud that his campaign is funded through grassroots supporters who believe he is the best man to represent their concerns in Washington DC.