PPIC released a new poll today, with their typical plethora of data. What else can I say but “Oooooh, fun!” The news is good for Obama, but not so much for Schwarzenegger or Howard Jarvis' corpse. Arnold's proposal to privatize the lottery and his budget overall are getting terrible numbers.
But, before we get to Arnold, if McSame ever planned on doing anything other than picking up checks in California, which he is doing today, perhaps he will reconsider after these numbers:
If the general election were held today, likely voters would favor Obama over McCain by 17 points (54% to 37%); likely voters also favor Clinton over McCain by 12 points (51% to 39%).
The fact that Obama has a larger lead than Clinton largely speaks to the fact that Obama is perceived to be the nominee. However, it does blow out of the water the “big states” argument that Clinton was using a few weeks back.
On Props 98 and 99 (I do some work for No 98/Yes 99), both 98 and 99 are under the 50% mark that usually indicates a tough slog to passage at this point. With less than two weeks to go, Prop 98 is looking badly at 30% Yes, 48% No. Prop 99 still has its head above water at 44% Yes, 36% No. That being said, the turnout model on this election is anybody's guess, so the pressure is on progressive organizations to turn out voters for the June 3 election. The Calitics Ed. Board has endorsed No on 98, Yes on 99. More on this and the budget over the flip.
Much of the problem with Prop 98 seems to stem from its elimination of rent control. Ignoring the state constitutional question of whether Prop 98 addresses more than one issue, the authors of Prop 98 once again overreached. You see, rent control is pretty popular here:
Attitudes toward rent control are favorable among both homeowners (51%) and renters (63%). A majority of Democrats (66%) and half of independents (51%) favor rent control, while a majority of Republicans (53%) say it is a bad thing.
Those are pretty strong numbers overral in support of rent control, and this smarmy attack on rent control isn't likely to help the apartment owners.
Now, looking to the budget, Arnold's big plan to change Sacramento is now being seen for what it really is: the worst possible combination of pandering and failed “solutions.” And it hits him where it hurts, Arnold's approval rating has slid to 41%, from 53% in December. Of course, the legislature's 26% approval is even more of a stinker.
The plan to sell or lease the lottery has been something of a disaster, as has Arnold's overall May revise:
Solid majorities of residents (58%) and likely voters (62%) oppose the governor’s plan to raise revenue by borrowing from future lottery earnings, but majorities of residents (54%) and likely voters (57%) favor a temporary increase in the state sales tax if the lottery plan fails.
Just 35 percent of residents and likely voters say they are satisfied with the budget plan proposed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger earlier this month. Majorities of residents (56%) and likely voters (57%) are dissatisfied with it.
The support for a sales tax increase is interesting. From a progressive standpoint, would hope that if we are going to increase taxes, it is not a regressive tax like the sales tax. That being said, it is really quite heartening to see the idea of increased taxes not being reflexively dismissed.
PPIC included some polling on the 30th Anniversary of Prop 13, and it's really all over the place. I think prop 13 as a principle just stands for low taxes or something like that, but the details still seem murky when the specifics get involved. See if you can decode these numbers:
As the 30th anniversary of the passage of Proposition 13 approaches next month, a solid majority (59%) of residents feel positive about the measure that limits property tax rates to 1 percent of assessed value at the time of purchase, restricts property tax increases to 2 percent a year, and requires a two-thirds majority vote to pass local special taxes. Californians are more divided in their views of the measure’s effect on local government services (27% good effect, 28% bad effect, 29% no effect) and the fairness of the provision that requires homeowners who recently purchased a home to pay higher property taxes than longtime owners (41% favor this provision, 51% are opposed).
See, the weird thing here is that these numbers conflict each other. Specifically how can you support the first part of the question without favoring the fact that recent homeowners have to pay more taxes? Of course, PPIC's pop quiz they included on their survey provides much of the answer to why these numbers are crazy: people don't understand the budget. Only 20% of Californians knew that K12 was our largest expenditure, and just slightly under a third knew that the income tax is our greatest source of revenue.
