I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my “Partisan Factor” predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.

For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my “Partisan Factor”, which is how I predict each competitive district will go.

Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.

State	Result	D Electoral Votes	R Electoral Votes
Alabama	Romney by 19.23		9
Alaska	Romney by 20.43		3
Arizona	Romney by 6.84		11
Arkansas	Romney by 22.87		6
California	Obama by 19.92	55
Colorado	Obama by 2.59	9
Connecticut	Obama by 15.74	7
Delaware	Obama by 26.09	3
District of Columbia	Obama by 87.03	3
Florida	Romney by 0.26*		29
Georgia	Romney by 6.71		16
Hawaii	Obama by 36.69	4
Idaho	Romney by 24.19		4
Illinois	Obama by 18.81	20
Indiana	Romney by 5.43*		11
Iowa	Obama by 2.79	6
Kansas	Romney by 13.81		6
Kentucky	Romney by 14.55		8
Louisiana	Romney by 17.52		8
Maine	Obama by 15.29	4
Maryland	Obama by 22.39	10
Massachusetts	Obama by 21.84	11
Michigan	Obama by 5.18	16
Minnesota	Obama by 8.34	10
Mississippi	Romney by 12.06		6
Missouri	Romney by 8.3		10
Montana	Romney by 5.11		3
Nebraksa	Romney by 13.41		5
Nevada	Obama by 3.64	6
New Hampshire	Obama by 3.01	4
New Jersey	Obama by 14.33	14
New Mexico	Obama by 11.66	5
New York	Obama by 26.87	29
North Carolina	Romney by 0.46*		15
North Dakota	Romney by 19.11		3
Ohio	Obama by 2.96	18
Oklahoma	Romney by 29.59		7
Oregon	Obama by 9.78	7
Pennsylvania	Obama by 6.09	20
Rhode Island	Obama by 22.98	4
South Carolina	Romney by 7.87		9
South Dakota	Romney by 6.65		3
Tennessee	Romney by 13.95		11
Texas	Romney by 14.9		38
Utah	Romney by 33.45		6
Vermont	Obama by 37.56	3
Virginia	Obama by 2.05	13
Washington	Obama by 12.05	12
West Virginia	Romney by 12.99		5
Wisconsin	Obama by 5.8	10
Wyoming	Romney by 31.23		3
Total		303	235

Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.

State	Result
Delaware	Safe Markell (D)
Indiana	Pence (D) by 7.87
Missouri	Nixon (D) by 13
Montana	Daines (R) by 0.5*
New Hampshire	Hassan (D) by 3
North Carolina	McCrory (R) by 14.25*
North Dakota	Dalrymple (R) by 35
Utah	Safe Herbert (R)
Vermont	Shumlin (D) by 34.00
Washington	Inslee (D) by 0.5
West Virginia	Tomblin (D) by 21
Total Governors	30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent

Now for the Senate races. I don’t know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.

State	Result
Arizona	Carmona (D) by 0.5*
California	Feinstein (D) by 19
Connecticut	Murphy (D) by 4.67
Delaware	Safe Carper (D)
Florida	Nelson (D) by 7.43
Hawaii	Hirono (D) by 18.5
Indiana	Donnelly (D) by 3*
Maine	King (I) by 18*
Maryland	Cardin (D) by 26.09
Massachusetts	Warren (D) by 4.67*
Michigan	Stabenow (D) by 13.5
Minnesota	Klobuchar (D) by 30
Mississippi	Safe Wicker (R)
Missouri	McCaskill (D) by 6.25
Montana	Rehberg (R) by 1.13*
Nebraska	Fischer (R) by 13*
Nevada	Heller (R) by 5.14
New Jersey	Menendez (D) by 18
New Mexico	Heinrich (D) by 9.67
New York	Gillibrand (D) by 43
North Dakota	Berg (R) by 5*
Ohio	Brown (D) by 6.14
Pennsylvania	Casey (D) by 5.14
Rhode Island	Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
Tennessee	Safe Corker (R)
Texas	Cruz (R) by 21.5
Utah	Safe Hatch (R)
Vermont	Safe Sanders (I)
Virginia	Kaine (D) by 1.57
Washington	Cantwell (D) by 16.5
West Virginia	Manchin (D) by 39
Wisconsin	Baldwin (D) by 2.67
Wyoming	Safe Barrasso (R)
Total Senators	51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents

Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.

District	Result
AZ-01	Paton (R) by 1.88
AZ-02	Barber (D) by 5.63
AZ-09	Sinema (D) by 2.56
CA-03	Garamendi (D) by 15
CA-07	Bera (D) by 1.25
CA-09	McNerney (D) by 1.25
CA-10	Denham (R) by 1.13
CA-24	Capps (D) by 2.5
CA-26	Brownley (D) by 0.5
CA-36	Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
CA-41	Takano (D) by 6.25
CA-47	Lowenthal (D) by 15
CA-52	Peters (D) by 0.31
CO-03	Tipton (R) by 5
CO-06	Coffman (R) by 4.38
CO-07	Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
CT-05	Esty (D) by 3.13
FL-02	Southerland (R) by 6.25
FL-10	Webster (R) by 5
FL-16	Buchanan (R) by 10
FL-18	West (R) by 4.59
FL-22	Frankel (D) by 3.89
FL-26	Rivera (R) by 2
GA-12	Barrow (D) by 4.25
IL-08	Duckworth (D) by 8.75
IL-10	Dold (R) by 1.88
IL-11	Foster (D) by 2.81
IL-12	Enyart (D) by 4.94
IL-13	Gill (D) by 0.63
IL-17	Bustos (D) by 0.63
IN-02	Walorski (R) by 12.5
IN-08	Bucshon (R) by 10
IA-01	Braley (D) by 15
IA-02	Loebsack (D) by 10
IA-03	Latham (R) by 3.75
IA-04	King (R) by 3.44
KY-06	Chandler (D) by 5.19
MD-06	Delaney (D) by 5.5
MA-06	Tisei (R) by 5.5
MI-01	McDowell (D) by 1.31
MI-03	Amash (R) by 11.25
MI-11	Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
MN-02	Kline (R) by 15
MN-06	Bachmann (R) by 6.25
MN-08	Nolan (D) by 2.56
MT-AL	Daines (R) by 8.67
NV-03	Heck (R) by 9
NV-04	Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
NH-01	Guinta (R) by 5.31
NH-02	Kuster (D) by 4.85
NJ-03	Runyan (R) by 10.63
NY-01	Bishop (D) by 8.69
NY-11	Grimm (R) by 13.38
NY-18	Hayworth (R) by 4.75
NY-19	Gibson (R) by 3.75
NY-21	Owens (D) by 2.06
NY-24	Maffei (D) by 1.56
NY-25	Slaughter (D) by 9.38
NY-27	Collins (R) by 2.06
NC-07	Rouzer (R) by 0.63
NC-08	Hudson (R) by 10
NC-11	Meadows (R) by 12.5
ND-AL	Cramer (R) by 12.25
OH-06	Johnson (R) by 4.38
OH-16	Renacci (R) by 1.88
OK-02	Mullin (R) by 11.63
PA-06	Gerlach (R) by 15
PA-08	Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
PA-12	Critz (D) by 1.88
RI-01	Cicilline (D) by 2.83
SD-AL	Noem (R) by 12
TN-04	DesJarlais (R) by 5
TX-14	Weber (R) by 6.25
TX-23	Gallego (D) by 1
UT-04	Love (R) by 8.19
VA-02	Regel (R) by 10
WA-01	DelBene (D) by 5.25
WV-03	Rahall (D) by 12.5
WI-07	Duffy (R) by 6.25
WI-08	Ribble (R) by 15
Total Representatives	239 Republicans, 196 Democrats

Now onto my final California predictions:

U.S. House

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
CA-03	R+2.7	D+2.8	R+6.3	R+3.0	R+2.3
CA-07	R+8.0	R+0.9	R+9	R+4.1	R+5.5
CA-09	R+1.4	D+4.3	R+3.8	R+2.2	R+0.8
CA-10	R+8.3	R+3.8	R+12.3	R+9.6	R+8.6
CA-24	R+6.4	D+4.3	R+6	R+6.5	R+3.7
CA-26	R+5.6	D+4.0	R+6.3	R+7.3	R+3.8
CA-36	R+8.9	R+2.1	R+10.2	R+10.2	R+7.9
CA-41	R+5.7	D+5.9	R+1.6	R+0.3	R+0.4
CA-47	R+0.4	D+6.3	R+0.3	R+1.5	D+0.7
CA-52	R+7.6	D+2.5	R+9.2	R+11.0	R+6.3

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
SD-05	R+13.2	D+0.6	R+8.8	R+6.0	R+6.9
SD-19	R+0.8	D+7.9	R+2.2	R+3.4	D+0.4
SD-27	R+3.8	D+4.7	R+5.7	R+7.2	R+3.0
SD-31	R+8.0	D+3.8	R+5.4	R+4.0	R+3.4
SD-39	R+2.8	D+8.6	R+2.0	R+3.8	R+0.0

State Assembly

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
AD-08	R+5.9	EVEN	R+7.9	R+3.0	R+4.2
AD-16	R+4.1	D+8.3	R+2.8	R+3.9	R+0.6
AD-21	R+2.6	D+2.2	R+8.9	R+5.7	R+3.8
AD-32	D+3.2	D+0.3	R+9.6	R+11.1	R+4.3
AD-40	R+8.5	D+0.2	R+8.4	R+6.3	R+5.8
AD-44	R+8.0	D+2.5	R+8.2	R+9.5	R+5.8
AD-60	R+12.5	R+1.1	R+10.7	R+9.2	R+8.4
AD-61	R+4.3	D+8.7	R+0.1	D+1.1	D+1.4
AD-65	R+8.8	R+1.9	R+10.6	R+11.2	R+8.1
AD-66	R+5.1	D+2.8	R+6.4	R+7.5	R+4.1
AD-78	D+0.2	D+12.0	D+3.4	D+1.4	D+4.3

Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California’s Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP

(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)

Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP

(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP

(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

I know it’s been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time.

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. From my formula predictions on all states’ elections, which I will show later, I determined which congressional districts were competitive and added the 10th congressional district and also the 78th Assembly district to the list.

My predictions for all California races, Congress and state legislature, will also come soon.

U.S. House

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
CA-03	R+3.4	D+2.8	R+6.3	R+3.0	R+2.5
CA-07	R+8.4	R+0.9	R+9	R+4.1	R+5.6
CA-09	R+2.8	D+4.3	R+3.8	R+2.2	R+1.1
CA-10	R+8.5	R+3.8	R+12.3	R+9.6	R+8.6
CA-16	D+0.3	D+5.2	R+7.2	R+2.6	R+1.1
CA-21	R+0.2	R+0.7	R+11.1	R+4.8	R+4.2
CA-24	R+7.3	D+4.3	R+6	R+6.5	R+3.9
CA-26	R+6.0	D+4.0	R+6.3	R+7.3	R+3.9
CA-36	R+9.7	R+2.1	R+10.2	R+10.2	R+8.1
CA-41	R+6.9	D+5.9	R+1.6	R+0.3	R+0.7
CA-47	R+1.0	D+6.3	R+0.3	R+1.5	D+0.6
CA-52	R+11.2	D+2.5	R+9.2	R+11.0	R+7.2

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
SD-05	R+8.0	D+0.6	R+8.8	R+6.0	R+7.0
SD-19	R+1.6	D+7.9	R+2.2	R+3.4	D+0.2
SD-27	R+5.4	D+4.7	R+5.7	R+7.2	R+3.4
SD-31	R+6.2	D+3.8	R+5.4	R+4.0	R+3.7
SD-39	R+3.8	D+8.6	R+2.0	R+3.8	R+0.3

State Assembly

District	Registration	CPVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
AD-08	R+6.3	EVEN	R+7.9	R+3.0	R+4.3
AD-16	R+4.9	D+8.3	R+2.8	R+3.9	R+0.8
AD-21	R+2.4	D+2.2	R+8.9	R+5.7	R+3.7
AD-32	D+3.4	D+0.3	R+9.6	R+11.1	R+4.3
AD-40	R+9.2	D+0.2	R+8.4	R+6.3	R+5.9
AD-44	R+8.4	D+2.5	R+8.2	R+9.5	R+5.9
AD-60	R+13.2	R+1.1	R+10.7	R+9.2	R+8.6
AD-61	R+5.6	D+8.7	R+0.1	D+1.1	D+1.0
AD-65	R+9.6	R+1.9	R+10.6	R+11.2	R+8.3
AD-66	R+5.9	D+2.8	R+6.4	R+7.5	R+4.3
AD-78	D+0.8	D+12.0	D+3.4	D+1.4	D+4.4

Here is my analysis of the Assembly races. I will start with listing by rating.

GUARANTEED DEM – 15

SAFE DEM – 32

LEAN DEM – 2

TOSS-UP – 3

LEAN GOP – 1

LIKELY GOP – 2

SAFE GOP – 19

GUARANTEED GOP – 6

The Democrats’ best-case scenario, winning all the seats that lean their way and the toss-ups, is status-quo 52-28, while the Republicans’ best-case scenario is 49-31.

Now, on to the races.

California’s 1st State Assembly District – GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner (Redding)

November ballot: Rick Bosetti (R) vs. Brian Dahle (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37

President 2008: McCain 53-41

California’s 2nd State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: North Coast (Santa Rosa)

November ballot: Wesley Chesbro (D-inc) vs. Tom Lynch (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 59-33

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 3rd State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Northern Sacramento Valley (Chico, Paradise, Oroville)

November ballot: Dan Logue (R-inc) vs. Charles Rouse (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 4th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Western Sacramento Valley (Davis, Napa)

November ballot: Mariko Yamada (D-inc) vs. John Munn (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 57-36

President 2008: Obama 65-32

California’s 5th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Northeastern San Joaquin Valley, Sierras

November ballot: Frank Bigelow (R) vs. Rico Oller (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 6th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Roseville, Folsom

November ballot: Beth Gaines (R-inc) vs. Regy Bronner (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 57-37

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 7th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento

November ballot: Roger Dickinson (D-inc) vs. Jonathan Zachariou (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 58-33

Governor 2010: Brown 65-29

President 2008: Obama 67-30

California’s 8th State Assembly District – TOSS-UP

Geography: Citrus Heights, Rancho Cordova

November ballot: Ken Cooley (D) vs. Peter Tateishi (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-43

Governor 2010: Brown 50-43

President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: This is probably the dictionary definition of “swing district”.

California’s 9th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Lodi, Elk Grove, part of Sacramento

November ballot: Richard Pan (D-inc) vs. Tony Amador (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 58-36

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 10th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Marin County, southern Sonoma County

November ballot: Michael Allen (D-inc) vs. Marc Levine (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27

Governor 2010: Brown 68-27

President 2008: Obama 76-21

California’s 11th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Antioch, Fairfield, Vacaville

November ballot: Jim Frazier (D) vs. Mike Hudson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 12th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Eastern San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties

November ballot: Kristin Olsen (R-inc) vs. Christopher Mateo (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-34

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 13th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Stockton, Tracy

November ballot: Susan Talamantes Eggman (D) vs. K. “Jeffrey” Jafri (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40

Governor 2010: Brown 55-38

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 14th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Concord, Martinez, Vallejo

November ballot: Susan Bonilla (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 62-32

President 2008: Obama 69-29

California’s 15th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Berkeley, Richmond

November ballot: Nancy Skinner (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 84-12

Governor 2010: Brown 84-12

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 16th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Livermore, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

November ballot: Joan Buchanan (D-inc) vs. Al Phillips (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-45

Governor 2010: Brown 51-45

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 17th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Eastern San Francisco

November ballot: Tom Ammiano (D-inc) vs. Jason P. Clark (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11

Governor 2010: Brown 82-13

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 18th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Oakland

November ballot: Rob Bonta (D) vs. Abel Guillen (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 81-13

Governor 2010: Brown 82-13

President 2008: Obama 85-12

California’s 19th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western San Francisco, Daly City

November ballot: Michael Breyer (D) vs. Phil Ting (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 70-21

Governor 2010: Brown 72-23

President 2008: Obama 78-19

California’s 20th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Fremont, Hayward

November ballot: Bill Quirk (D) vs. Jennifer Ong (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-26

Governor 2010: Brown 67-27

President 2008: Obama 73-24

California’s 21st State Assembly District – LEAN DEM

Geography: Merced County, western Stanislaus County (Ceres, Modesto, Patterson)

November ballot: Adam Gray (D) vs. Jack Mobley (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 47-45

President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: The statewide numbers show that this is a swingy district, and while the Republican got almost 45%, the remaining 55% was split among 4 Democrats.

California’s 22nd State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: San Mateo County (San Mateo, Redwood City)

November ballot: Mark Gilham (R) vs. Kevin Mullin (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 64-30

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 72-25

California’s 23rd State Assembly District – GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Fresno, Clovis

November ballot: Jim Patterson (R) vs. Bob Whalen (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-36

President 2008: McCain 53-45

California’s 24th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Richard Gordon (D-inc) vs. Chengzhi “George” Yang (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-28

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 73-23

California’s 25th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Newark, Milpitas, Santa Clara

November ballot: Bob Wieckowski (D-inc) vs. Arlyne Diamond (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29

Governor 2010: Brown 61-33

President 2008: Obama 68-28

California’s 26th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Inyo County, Visalia, rural Kern County

November ballot: Connie Conway (R-inc) vs. Jonathan Louis Sosa (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 57-41

California’s 27th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: San Jose

November ballot: Nora Campos (D-inc) vs. Roger F. Lasson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26

Governor 2010: Brown 64-29

President 2008: Obama 70-26

California’s 28th State Assembly District – LEAN DEM (but no chance of going GOP at all)

Geography: Cupertino, Los Gatos, Saratoga

November ballot: Paul Fong (D-inc) vs. Chad Walsh (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 58-34

Governor 2010: Brown 57-38

President 2008: Obama 67-30

Quite unusual, though this is not the first time a “minor party” (in this case, none at all) candidate has a fighting chance against a major-party incumbent. Fong only got 54% in June, so this may be the only race in which top-two potentially worked to a non-major party candidate’s benefit.

California’s 29th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Santa Cruz, Monterey

November ballot: Mark Stone (D) vs. Tom Walsh (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 62-32

President 2008: Obama 71-26

California’s 30th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: San Benito, Salinas, Morgan Hill

November ballot: Luis Alejo (D-inc) vs. Rob Bernosky (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 58-35

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 31st State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western Fresno County

November ballot: Henry Perea (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44

Governor 2010: Brown 53-39

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 32nd State Assembly District – LIKELY GOP

Geography: Kings County, Bakersfield, Delano

November ballot: Rudy Salas (D) vs. Pedro Rios (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-41

President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: I don’t see how Salas can overcome a 60-40 deficit, even if Democratic turnout was reduced in June.

California’s 33rd State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Most of San Bernardino County (Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Barstow)

November ballot: Tim Donnelly (R-inc) vs. John Coffey (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-35

President 2008: McCain 55-41

California’s 34th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Bakersfield

November ballot: Shannon Grove (R-inc) vs. Mari Goodman (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 66-25

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31

President 2008: McCain 63-34

California’s 35th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria

November ballot: Katcho Achadjian (R-inc) vs. Gerry Manata

Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-40

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 36th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Steve Fox (D) vs. Ron Smith (R)

November ballot: Lancaster, Palmdale

Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 48-40

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 37th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard

November ballot: Das Williams (D-inc) vs. Rob Walter (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40

Governor 2010: Brown 52-41

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 38th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Santa Clarita, Simi Valley

November ballot: Edward Headington (D) vs. Scott Wilk (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 54-39

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 39th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Richard Alarcon (D-inc) vs. Raul Bocanegra (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-27

Governor 2010: Brown 64-27

President 2008: Obama 71-25

California’s 40th State Assembly District – LEAN GOP

Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands

November ballot: Mike Morrell (R-inc) vs. Russ Warner (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-42

Governor 2010: Brown 46-45

President 2008: Obama 52-44

Description: This district looks like Morrell’s old district, except it trades a Republican city for a Democratic one: Upland for San Bernardino. This district is also 47% minority-majority in the citizen voting age population, so June turnout was probably lower than what November’s might be.

California’s 41st State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: San Gabriel Valley (Pasadena, Upland)

November ballot: Chris Holden (D) vs. Donna Lowe (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-42

Governor 2010: Brown 53-40

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 42nd State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Hemet, Palm Desert, Yucca Valley

November ballot: Brian Nestande (R-inc) vs. Anthony Orozco (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 43rd State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Burbank, Glendale

November ballot: Mike Gatto (D-inc) vs. Greg Krikorian (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-33

Governor 2010: Brown 59-33

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 44th State Assembly District – LIKELY GOP

Geography: Oxnard, Thousand Oaks

November ballot: Jeff Gorell (R-inc) vs. Eileen MacEnery (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-44

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44

President 2008: Obama 55-43

Description: The addition of Oxnard shifted this district from a small Republican registration advantage to a slight Democratic registration. Gorell is moderate and has received the teachers’ union endorsement, so he shouldn’t have much trouble holding this district.

California’s 45th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Bob Blumenfield (D-inc) vs. Chris Kolski (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-38

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 46th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Adrin Nazarian (D) vs. Jay Stern (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26

Governor 2010: Brown 67-27

President 2008: Obama 73-23

California’s 47th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Fontana, Rialto, San Bernardino

November ballot: Joe Baca, Jr. (D) vs. Cheryl R. Brown (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30

Governor 2010: Brown 61-29

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 48th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Baldwin Park, West Covina, Glendora

November ballot: Roger Hernandez (D-inc) vs. Joe M. Gardner (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 53-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-35

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 49th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Alhambra, El Monte, Monterey Park*

November ballot: Ed Chau (D) vs. Matthew Lin (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 55-37

President 2008: Obama 60-36

*This is the only majority-Asian district in all of the California U.S. House, Senate, and Assembly districts in population and voting-age population (VAP), and almost majority-Asian citizen VAP. Have there been any other majority-Asian districts outside of Hawaii?

California’s 50th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: West Side L.A. (Beverly Hills, Malibu, Santa Monica, West Hollywood)

November ballot: Betsy Butler (D-inc) vs. Richard Bloom (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-28

Governor 2010: Brown 66-29

President 2008: Obama 74-23

Description: Butler, who barely won in a Beach Cities-centric district in 2010, moved to this West Side-centric district and will face the mayor of Santa Monica. Her other option was the very swingy 66th district, so her chances are nominally better here.

California’s 51st State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A.

November ballot: Jimmy Gomez (D) vs. Luis Lopez (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 77-15

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 79-17

California’s 52nd State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Chino, Ontario, Pomona

November ballot: Norma Torres (D-inc) vs. Kenny Coble (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-35

President 2008: Obama 63-34

California’s 53rd State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A., Huntington Park

November ballot: John Pérez (D-inc) vs. Jose Aguilar (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 78-18

California’s 54th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Culver City

November ballot: Holly Mitchell (D-inc) vs. Brandon McCowen (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 78-16

Governor 2010: Brown 78-16

President 2008: Obama 84-14

California’s 55th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Diamond Bar, La Habra, Yorba Linda

November ballot: Curt Hagman (R-inc) vs. Gregg Fritchle (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 56th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Imperial County, Indio, Cathedral City, Blythe

November ballot: Manuel Perez (D-inc) vs. Corky Reynaga-Emett (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40

Governor 2010: Brown 54-39

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 57th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: La Mirada, Norwalk, Whittier

November ballot: Ian Charles Calderon (D) vs. Noel Jaimes (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-36

President 2008: Obama 60-36

California’s 58th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Cerritos

November ballot: Christina Garcia (D) vs. Patricia Kotze-Ramos (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30

Governor 2010: Brown 62-30

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 59th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Part of South Central L.A.

November ballot: Rodney Robinson (D) vs. Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 86-6

Governor 2010: Brown 86-6

President 2008: Obama 90-7

California’s 60th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Corona, Riverside

November ballot: Eric Linder (R) vs. Jose Luis Perez (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 48-43

President 2008: Obama 51-46

California’s 61st State Assembly District – TOSS-UP

Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Bill Batey (R) vs. Jose Medina (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41

Governor 2010: Brown 53-39

President 2008: Obama 60-36

Description: Here is another new Riverside district. I’m rating this a toss-up like its Senate and U.S. House counterparts due to the “uncharted territory” and “historic GOP strength” factors. However, Kamala Harris won here in the Attorney General race, so if one of the districts goes DEM, my money is on this one.

California’s 62nd State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne

November ballot: Steven Bradford (D-inc) vs. Mervin Leon Evans (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 73-20

Governor 2010: Brown 73-21

President 2008: Obama 80-17

California’s 63rd State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Gateway Cities (South Gate, Lakewood, Lynwood)

November ballot: Jack M. Guerrero (R) vs. Anthony Rendon (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-24

Governor 2010: Brown 67-24

President 2008: Obama 72-24

California’s 64th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Compton, Carson

November ballot: Isadore Hall (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11

Governor 2010: Brown 82-11

President 2008: Obama 85-12

California’s 65th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Buena Park, Fullerton, Stanton

November ballot: Chris Norby (R-inc) vs. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42

President 2008: Obama 50-47

California’s 66th State Assembly District – TOSS-UP

Geography: Palos Verdes, Torrance, West Carson, Beach Cities

November ballot: Craig Huey (R) vs. Al Muratsuchi (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45

Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46

President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Huey, who overperformed in a House district special election in 2011, is running in this swingy district, with Democratic-leaning West Carson, the slight-Democratic-leaning Beach Cities (Hermosa/Manhattan/Redondo), the Republican-leaning Palos Verdes Peninsula, and swingy Torrance. Republicans got 60% of the June vote, which seems high for a swingy district, so this district could go either way.

California’s 67th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Murrieta, Menifee, Lake Elsinore

November ballot: Melissa Melendez (R) vs. Phil Paule (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 57-34

President 2008: McCain 56-41

California’s 68th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin

November ballot: Don Wagner (R-inc) vs. Christina Avalos (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-33

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 69th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Anaheim, Santa Ana

November ballot: Tom Daly (D) vs. Joe Moreno (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34

Governor 2010: Brown 56-34

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 70th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Long Beach

November ballot: Bonnie Lowenthal (D-inc) vs. Martha Flores Gibson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-34

Governor 2010: Brown 59-34

President 2008: Obama 67-30

California’s 71st State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: El Cajon, Santee

November ballot: Brian Jones (R-inc) vs. Patrick Hurley (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-32

President 2008: McCain 57-40

California’s 72nd State Assembly District – GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Westminster

November ballot: Travis Allen (R) vs. Troy Edgar (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 73rd State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, San Clemente

November ballot: Diane Harkey (R-inc) vs. James Corbett (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 62-31

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 74th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach

November ballot: Allan Mansoor (R-inc) vs. Robert Rush (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 75th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Escondido, San Marcos, Temecula

November ballot: Matthew Herold (D) vs. Marie Waldron (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31

President 2008: McCain 55-41

California’s 76th State Assembly District – GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista

November ballot: Rocky Chavez (R) vs. Sherry Hodges (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-40

President 2008: Obama 51-46

California’s 77th State Assembly District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Poway, northern San Diego

November ballot: Ruben Hernandez (D) vs. Brian Maienschein (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-39

President 2008: Obama 50-47

California’s 78th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Diego, Coronado, Imperial Beach

November ballot: Toni Atkins (D-inc) vs. Ralph Denney (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-38

Governor 2010: Brown 54-39

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 79th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Chula Vista, La Mesa, Lemon Grove

November ballot: Mary England (R) vs. Shirley Weber (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41

Governor 2010: Brown 51-40

President 2008: Obama 60-38

California’s 80th State Assembly District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Chula Vista, National City

November ballot: Ben Hueso (D-inc) vs. Derrick Roach (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 57-32

President 2008: Obama 66-32

Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014.

SD-02 (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D)

SD-04 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) – currently running for CA-01, but will almost guaranteed be succeeded by another Republican.

SD-06 (Sacramento): Darrell Steinberg (D)

SD-08 (Sierras): Tom Berryhill (R)

SD-10 (Hayward/Fremont): Open; safe DEM

SD-12 (Western Central Valley): Anthony Cannella (R)

SD-14 (Fresno/Kings/Bakersfield): Michael Rubio (D)

SD-16 (Bakersfield/San Bern County): Jean Fuller (R)

SD-18 (San Fernando Valley): Open; safe DEM

SD-20 (Pomona/Ontario/Fontana): Open; safe DEM

SD-22 (West Covina/El Monte/Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)

SD-24 (Downtown/East L.A.): Kevin DeLeon (D)

SD-26 (Coast from West Hollywood to Palos Verdes): Ted Lieu (D)

SD-28 (Riverside County): Brian Nestande (R)

SD-30 (Culver City): Curren Price (D)

SD-32 (Gateway Cities and Buena Park): Open; safe DEM

SD-34 (Seal Beach/Garden Grove/Santa Ana): Open; safe GOP

SD-36 (San Clemente to Oceanside): Open; safe GOP

SD-38 (Most of San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)

SD-40 (Imperial County/Chula Vista): Ben Hueso (D)

Here are my ratings for the State Senate races. See the extended.

California’s 1st State Senate District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Folsom, South Lake Tahoe)

November ballot: Ted Gaines (R-inc) vs. Julie Griffith-Flatter (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 54-42

California’s 3rd State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Napa Valley (Petaluma, Vallejo, Davis)

November ballot: Lois Wolk (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 60-34

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 5th State Senate District – TOSS-UP

Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Tracy), Modesto

November ballot: Bill Berryhill (R) vs. Cathleen Galgiani (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 47-46

President 2008: Obama 53-44

Description: This will be one of the Senate races to watch closely, with two Assemblymembers facing off. Berryhill won twice in an Obama-voting district, while Galgiani recently came out as a lesbian and is vocal in her support for high-speed rail. Democrats have had a better history of winning victories in districts that included Stockton though.

California’s 7th State Senate District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Concord, Antioch, Livermore

November ballot: Mark DeSaulnier (D-inc) vs. Mark Meuser (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-41

Governor 2010: Brown 53-41

President 2008: Obama 62-35

California’s 9th State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland

November ballot: Loni Hancock (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 82-12

Governor 2010: Brown 83-12

President 2008: Obama 86-11

California’s 11th State Senate District – SAFE DEM

Geography: San Francisco, Daly City

November ballot: Mark Leno (D-inc) vs. Harmeet Dhillon (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16

Governor 2010: Brown 77-18

President 2008: Obama 82-14

California’s 13th State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: San Francisco Peninsula (San Mateo, Redwood City, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Jerry Hill (D) vs. Sally Lieber (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 65-29

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 73-24

Description: This intraparty battle does not have much drama. Hill represents more of this district, so he has an advantage.

California’s 15th State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (San Jose, Cupertino, Los Gatos)

November ballot: Jim Beall (D) vs. Joe Coto (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 59-35

President 2008: Obama 68-29

Description: This intraparty battle has a much deeper split, with Beall hailing from the richer western side and Coto the poorer eastern side. Beall being a current member of the Assembly probably has an edge.

California’s 17th State Senate District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Northern Central Coast (Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo)

November ballot: Bill Monning (D) vs. Larry Beaman (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-28

Governor 2010: 56-38

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 19th State Senate District – LIKELY DEM

Geography: Southern Central Coast (Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, Oxnard)

November ballot: Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) vs. Mike Stoker (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43

Governor 2010: Brown 49-43

President 2008: Obama 60-37

Description: Jackson made it out of a bruising primary. Stoker came close in a Santa Barbara-based Assembly district in 2010, but with turnout at UCSB likely to be much higher, it is unlikely he would get much closer.

California’s 21st State Senate District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Victorville

November ballot: Steve Knight (R) vs. Star Moffatt (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 51-39

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 23rd State Senate District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Inland Empire (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Hemet)

November ballot: Bill Emmerson (R-inc) vs. Melissa Ruth O’Donnell (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-40

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 25th State Senate District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Glendale, Glendora, Pasadena

November ballot: Carol Liu (D-inc) vs. Gilbert Gonzales (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 52-40

President 2008: Obama 60-36

California’s 27th State Senate District – LEAN DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley, Eastern Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Simi Valley)

November ballot: Fran Pavley (D-inc) vs. Todd Zink (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-46

Governor 2010: Whitman 47.2-46.5

President 2008: Obama 57-40

Description: Pavley’s district became much more Ventura-centric and less Democratic. Zink won more of the June vote, so the November vote might go more to Pavley.

California’s 29th State Senate District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Fullerton

November ballot: Bob Huff (R-inc) vs. Greg Diamond (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 31st State Senate District – TOSS-UP

Geography: Corona, Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Richard Roth (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 45.6-45.5

Governor 2010: Brown 48.2-43.1

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This is the Senate version of the uncharted Riverside-centric territory with a known Republican entity.

California’s 33rd State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Long Beach, South Gate, Lynwood

November ballot: Ricardo Lara (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 69-22

Governor 2010: Brown 70-22

President 2008: 75-21

California’s 35th State Senate District – SAFE DEM

Geography: Carson, San Pedro, Torrance

November ballot: Rod Wright (D-inc) vs. Charlotte Svolos

Senate 2010: Boxer 71-20

Governor 2010: Brown 72-21

President 2008: Obama 77-20

California’s 37th State Senate District – SAFE GOP

Geography: Central Orange County (Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa)

November ballot: Mimi Walters (R-inc) vs. Steve Young (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-34

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-35

President 2008: McCain 49-47

California’s 39th State Senate District – SAFE DEM

Geography: San Diego, Coronado

November ballot: Marty Block (D) vs. George Plescia (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43

Governor 2010: Brown 49-44

President 2008: Obama 60-37

My predictions are 13 DEM seats, 5 GOP seats, and 2 toss-ups. The other seats are 12 DEM and 8 GOP, so the best Democrats can do is 27-13, enough for 2/3 (though it is unlikely we will get there in the Assembly; I will post that diary later), and the best Republicans can do is status-quo 25-15. (Spoiler: Interesting that the best-case Republican scenario in the Senate is status quo, while the best case Democratic scenario in the Assembly is status-quo, 52-28.)

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a “Cook PVI” based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the “Partisan Factor” (PF) became a bit easier, simply averaging the CPVI, 2010 Governor and Senate races, and the difference between the DEM and GOP registration numbers. The PF’s changed slightly, but the overall numbers for U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly remain the same.

For the 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Fiorina won 51-49 and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

U.S. House

District	“Incumbent”	DEM	GOP	Margin	Cook PVI	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
CA-03	Garamendi	41.6	32.3	D+9.3	D+2.8	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+4.4
CA-07	Lungren	39.2	38.2	D+1.0	R+0.9	R+7.4	D+5.4	R+0.5
CA-09	McNerney	44.6	35.8	D+8.8	D+4.3	D+3.0	D+9.2	D+6.3
CA-16	Costa	47.9	32.7	D+15.2	D+5.2	R+3.8	D+8.4	D+6.3
CA-21	None	45.4	34.4	D+11.0	R+0.7	R+11.6	D+4.0	D+0.7
CA-24	Capps	38.9	35.1	D+3.8	D+4.3	R+1.4	D+0.6	D+1.8
CA-26	None	40.9	35.2	D+5.7	D+4.0	R+2.0	R+1.0	D+1.7
CA-31	None	41.0	35.9	D+5.1	D+4.0	D+2.2	D+8.2	D+4.9
CA-36	Bono Mack	39.0	40.7	R+1.7	R+2.1	R+11.0	R+6.8	R+5.4
CA-41	None	41.8	34.9	D+6.9	D+5.9	D+7.4	D+13.0	D+8.3
CA-46	Sanchez	44.3	31.7	D+12.6	D+6.3	D+10.0	D+10.6	D+9.9
CA-47	None	42.4	31.6	D+10.8	D+6.3	D+8.6	D+9.4	D+8.8
CA-52	Bilbray	32.7	35.4	R+2.7	D+2.5	R+7.8	R+8.4	R+4.1

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District	DEM	GOP	Margin	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	Cook PVI	PF
SD-05	41.7	38.7	D+3.0	R+7.0	D+1.6	D+0.6	R+1.4
SD-19	43.6	31.3	D+12.3	R+6.2	D+6.2	D+7.9	D+2.3
SD-27	40.4	34.6	D+5.8	R+0.8	R+0.8	D+4.7	D+0.8
SD-31	39.7	36.7	D+3.0	R+0.2	D+5.6	D+3.8	D+3.3
SD-39	37.7	30.4	D+7.3	D+6.6	D+6.0	D+8.6	D+6.8

State Assembly

District	DEM	GOP	Margin	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	Cook PVI	PF
AD-08	40.1	37.5	D+2.6	R+5.2	D+7.6	EVEN	D+1.6
AD-16	39.8	34.1	D+5.7	D+5.0	D+5.8	D+23.4	D+6.3
AD-21	46.3	34.1	D+12.2	R+7.2	D+1.2	D+11.5	R+0.5
AD-31	49.1	31.6	D+17.5	D+3.2	D+14.6	D+20.8	D+10.3
AD-32	46.6	32.5	D+14.1	R+8.3	R+8.6	D+7.7	R+5.4
AD-40	38.0	38.5	R+0.5	R+6.0	D+1.0	D+7.6	R+1.6
AD-44	38.9	37.0	D+1.9	R+5.8	R+5.4	D+12.0	R+4.0
AD-60	36.6	39.0	R+2.4	R+10.8	R+4.8	D+5.0	R+6.7
AD-61	42.6	34.5	D+8.1	D+10.4	D+15.8	D+24.0	D+13.1
AD-65	36.0	37.3	R+1.3	R+10.6	R+8.8	D+3.4	R+8.2
AD-66	38.2	35.4	D+2.8	R+2.2	R+1.4	D+12.6	R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 36 DEM, 17 GOP

Safe DEM (27): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (13): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the “Outlook” series for 2012.

In 2008 I tried a “Partisan Factor” (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new “Partisan Factor” using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

Here is the lowdown on these districts.

U.S. House

District	“Incumbent”	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Pres.	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
CA-03	Garamendi	42.1	32.8	D+9.3	D+12.6	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+3.9
CA-07	Lungren	39.4	38.6	D+0.8	D+5.5	R+7.4	D+5.4	R+0.5
CA-09	McNerney	45.3	35.8	D+9.5	D+15.5	D+3.0	D+9.2	D+6.9
CA-16	Costa	48.3	33.4	D+14.9	D+17.8	R+3.8	D+8.4	D+3.9
CA-21	None	46.2	35.3	D+10.9	D+5.8	R+11.6	D+4.0	R+1.9
CA-24	Capps	39.2	35.6	D+3.6	D+15.5	R+1.4	D+0.6	D+0.8
CA-26	Gallegly (?)	41.1	35.5	D+5.6	D+14.9	R+2.0	R+1.0	D+0.0
CA-31	Dreier/Lewis (?)	41.1	37.0	D+4.1	D+14.9	D+2.2	D+8.2	D+5.6
CA-36	Bono Mack	39.0	41.4	R+2.4	D+3.1	R+11.0	R+6.8	R+7.7
CA-41	None	41.9	35.3	D+6.6	D+18.9	D+7.4	D+13.0	D+10.3
CA-46	Sanchez	44.8	32.1	D+12.7	D+19.2	D+10.0	D+10.6	D+11.0
CA-47	None	42.6	32.0	D+10.6	D+19.3	D+8.6	D+9.4	D+9.7
CA-52	Bilbray	32.9	35.9	R+3.0	D+12.1	R+7.8	R+8.4	R+6.6

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District	DEM	GOP	Margin	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	2008 Pres.	PF
SD-05	42.6	38.2	D+4.4	R+7.0	D+1.6	D+8.4	R+1.4
SD-19	44.0	31.8	D+12.2	R+6.2	D+6.2	D+22.5	D+2.3
SD-27	40.9	34.6	D+6.3	R+0.8	R+0.8	D+16.4	D+0.8
SD-31	39.8	37.1	D+2.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	D+14.5	D+3.3
SD-39	38.1	30.9	D+7.2	D+6.6	D+6.0	D+13.8	D+6.8

State Assembly

District	DEM	GOP	Margin	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	2008 Pres.	PF
AD-08	40.4	37.9	D+2.5	R+5.2	D+7.6	D+7.1	D+1.6
AD-16	40.1	34.4	D+5.7	D+5.0	D+5.8	D+23.4	D+6.3
AD-21	47.9	33.0	D+14.9	R+7.2	D+1.2	D+11.5	R+0.5
AD-31	49.7	32.9	D+16.8	D+3.2	D+14.6	D+20.8	D+10.3
AD-32	47.5	33.5	D+14.0	R+8.3	R+8.6	D+7.7	R+5.4
AD-40	39.6	38.0	D+1.6	R+6.0	D+1.0	D+7.6	R+1.6
AD-44	39.2	37.2	D+2.0	R+5.8	R+5.4	D+12.0	R+4.0
AD-60	36.6	39.7	R+3.1	R+10.8	R+4.8	D+5.0	R+6.7
AD-61	42.8	34.7	D+8.1	D+10.4	D+15.8	D+24.0	D+13.1
AD-65	36.6	38.0	R+1.4	R+10.6	R+8.8	D+3.4	R+8.2
AD-66	38.4	35.6	D+2.8	R+2.2	R+1.4	D+12.6	R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 35 DEM, 18 GOP

Safe DEM (26): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

(This is an interesting thought experiment. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

In the last part of my redistricting California series, here is a map of what a 120-district unicameral legislature, the Senate and Assembly merged, might look like. I did this map at the same time as the Assembly map.

Majority-White: 54

Majority-Black: 1

Majority-Hispanic: 16

Majority-Minority: 49

Safe Dem: 56

Likely Dem: 13

Lean Dem: 6

Toss-Up: 10

Lean GOP: 14

Likely GOP: 11

Safe GOP: 10

Outer NorCal

l

LD-01: Humboldt County, Mendocino County, most of Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

LD-02: Most of southern Sonoma County

Demographics: 73% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-03: Marin County, Petaluma in Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 12% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 77%, McCain 21% (SAFE DEM: D+24)

LD-04: Del Norte County, Siskiyou County, Trinity County, Shasta County, Modoc County, Lassen County

Demographics: 83% White, 7% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 60%, Obama 38% (SAFE GOP: R+14)

LD-05: Tehama County, Glenn County, Colusa County, most of Butte County

Demographics: 77% White, 15% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-06: Sutter County, Yuba County, Sierra County, Plumas County, most of Nevada County, Oroville in Butte County

Demographics: 72% White, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-07: Lake County, Napa County, Vallejo in Solano County

Demographics: 58% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-08: Yolo County, Vacaville and Winters in Solano County

Demographics: 60% White, 23% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-09: Most of Solano County, southern and eastern Sacramento County

Demographics: 60% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 43% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

LD-10: Southern Sacramento

Demographics: 40% White, 20% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 15% Black

2008 President: Obama 65%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

LD-11: Central Sacramento

Demographics: 50% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-12: Northern Sacramento

Demographics: 61% White, 16% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-13: Placer County, part of southern Nevada County

Demographics: 81% White, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

LD-14: Northwestern Sacramento County, southeastern Placer County

Demographics: 74% White, 10% Hispanic, 5% Black, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-15: El Dorado County, Citrus Heights and Folsom in Sacramento County

Demographics: 82% White, 10% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

San Francisco/Oakland/East Bay

LD-16: Western San Francisco

Demographics: 50% White, 36% Asian, 6% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-17: Northeastern San Francisco

Demographics: 49% White, 24% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

LD-18: Southeastern San Francisco, Daly City

Demographics: 41% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 22% White, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-19: Martinez, Richmond

Demographics: 39% White, 21% Hispanic, 19% BLack, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 80%, McCain 18% (SAFE DEM: D+27)

LD-20: Berkeley, Emeryville

Demographics: 49% White, 22% Black, 16% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

LD-21: Oakland

Demographics: 31% Black, 26% Hispanic, 20% White, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 87%, McCain 11% (SAFE DEM: D+34)

LD-22: South San Francisco, San Mateo, Pacifica

Demographics: 52% White, 21% Hispanic, 21% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-23: Most of San Mateo County, small part of northwestern Santa Clara County

Demographics: 58% White, 22% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: 74% Obama, 24% McCain (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-24: Silicon Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 29% Asian, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: 75% Obama, 23% McCain (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-25: Pleasant Hill, Lafayette, Orinda

Demographics: 72% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-26: Eastern Contra Costa County

Demographics: 56% White, 23% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-27: San Ramon, eastern Alameda County

Demographics: 76% White, 10% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-28: San Leandro

Demographics: 40% White, 26% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-29: Hayward, Union City, Fremont

Demographics: 35% White, 34% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-30: Milpitas, Santa Clara

Demographics: 42% White, 35% Asian, 16% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain, 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-31: Northern San Jose

Demographics: 35% Hispanic, 29% Asian, 29% White

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-32: Eastern San Jose

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 16% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-33: Downtown San Jose

Demographics: 62% White, 16% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-34: Palo Alto, Cupertino, Monte Sereno, western Stanislaus County

Demographics: 62% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-35: Santa Cruz County, Gilroy

Demographics: 61% White, 31% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

Central

LD-36: Turlock, Merced County

Demographics: 44% White, 42% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-37: Lodi, Tracy, Escalon, Ripon

Demographics: 57% White, 27% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-38: Stockton

Demographics: 34% White, 33% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-39: Lathrop, Manteca, Modesto

Demographics: 58% White, 27% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-40: Eastern Central Valley, eastern Stanislaus County, eastern Madera County

Demographics: 74% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

LD-41: Western Madera County, northern Fresno

Demographics: 51% White, 36% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 47% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-42: Southern Fresno

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 28% White, 13% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-43: San Benito County, Salinas

Demographics: 48% Hispanic, 37% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-44: Most of Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties

Demographics: 70% White, 22% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

LD-46: Western Fresno County, eastern Fresno

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 42% White, 6% Asian

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

LD-47: Eastern Fresno, Visalia

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 45% White

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-48: Most of Tulare, all of Inyo, Ridgecrest in Kern County

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 44% White

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-49: Kings County, northwestern Kern County

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 40% White, 6% Black

2008 President: McCain 58%, Obama 40% (SAFE GOP: R+12)

Outer SoCal

LD-45: San Luis Obispo, Pismo Beach, Santa Maria, Lompoc

Demographics: 58% White, 32% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 49.1%, McCain 48.9% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-50: Bakersfield

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 42% White, 8% Black

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 49% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-51: Central and eastern Kern County

Demographics: 59% White, 29% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 62%, Obama 37% (SAFE GOP: R+16)

LD-52: Santa Barbara, Ojai, Ventura

Demographics: 60% White, 32% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-53: Northern and eastern Ventura County

Demographics: 72% White, 19% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-55: Santa Clarita

Demographics: 63% White, 22% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 6% black

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-56: Lancaster, Palmdale, Adelanto, Victorville

Demographics: 50% White, 31% Hispanic, 12% Black

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-57: Hesperia, Victorville, Barstow, California City

Demographics: 61% White, 25% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-92: Redlands, Yucaipa

Demographics: 68% White, 20% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

LD-107: Temecula, Desert Hot Springs

Demographics: 67% White, 23% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-108: Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Indio

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 44% White

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-120: Blythe, Imperial County, eastern San Diego County

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 36% White

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

Los Angeles/San Bernardino

LD-54: Oxnard, Camarillo

Demographics: 50% White, 39% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 58%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+5)

LD-58: Western San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-59: Southeastern San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 33% White, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-60: San Fernando

Demographics: 57% Hispanic, 26% White, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-61: Far southeastern San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 37% White, 7% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-62: Burbank, Glendale

Demographics: 53% White, 28% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-63: South Pasadena

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 29% White, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-64: San Gabriel, El Monte, Baldwin Park

Demographics: 57% Hispanic, 28% Asian, 12% White

2008 President: Obama 66%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+13)

LD-65: South El Monte, Industry, La Habra Heights

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 19% White

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-66: Covina, Walnut, Diamond Bar

Demographics: 41% Hispanic, 26% White, 25% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-67: Port Hueneme, Malibu, Santa Monica

Demographics: 65% White, 22% Hispanic, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-68: West Side L.A.

Demographics: 65% White, 15% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-69: Beverly Hills, West Hollywood

Demographics: 73% White, 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-70: Inglewood

Demographics: 47% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

LD-71: Culver City, Hawthorne

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 26% Black, 16% White, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-72: South Central L.A., Compton

Demographics: 52% Black, 45% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 95%, McCain 4% (SAFE DEM: D+42)

LD-73: Downtown L.A. (yellow)

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 25% White, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-74: Downtown L.A. (yellow green)

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black, 6% White

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-75: Downtown L.A. (pink)

Demographics: 64% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 13% Black

2008 President: Obama 83%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+30)

LD-76: South Central, Vernon

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 24% Black

2008 President: Obama 92%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+39)

LD-77: Commerce, Maywood, Bell

Demographics: 90% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-78: Montebello, Pico Rivera, Whittier

Demographics: 68% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 12% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-79: El Segundo, Beach Cities

Demographics: 47% White, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 37% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-80: Palos Verdes, Torrance

Demographics: 50% White, 24% Hispanic, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

LD-81: Carson, part of Long Beach

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 21% White, 15% Black, 15% Asian

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-82: South Gate, Paramount, Lynwood

Demographics: 80% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% White

2008 President: Obama 83%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+30)

LD-83: Downey, Bellflower, Signal Hill

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 32% White, 11% Black, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-84: Artesia, Norwalk, Lakewood, La Mirada

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 28% White, 21% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 58%, McCain 40% (LEAN DEM: D+5)

LD-85: La Canada Flintridge, Pasadena

Demographics: 34% White, 30% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-86: Monrovia, Glendora, San Dimas

Demographics: 45% White, 31% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-87: Claremont, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga

Demographics: 54% White, 28% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-88: Pomona, Montclair, Chino Hills

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 27% White, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

LD-89: Chino, Ontario, Fontana

Demographics: 59% Hispanic, 25% White, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-90: Rialto, Colton

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 23% White, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-91: San Bernardino, Loma Linda, Grand Terrace

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 32% White, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-93: Calimesa, Beaumont, Banning

Demographics: 63% White, 27% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

LD-103: Corona, Norco

Demographics: 49% White, 37% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-104: Riverside

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 42% White, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 42% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

LD-105: Moreno Valley

Demographics: 38% White, 35% Hispanic, 16% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-106: Perris, Lake Elsinore, Murrieta

Demographics: 58% White, 29% Hispanic, 6% Black

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

Orange County

LD-94: Long Beach, Seal Beach

Demographics: 50% White, 27% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

LD-95: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa

Demographics: 62% White, 21% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-96: Newport Beach, Irvine

Demographics: 74% White, 13% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-97: Anaheim

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 55%, McCain 43% (TOSS-UP: D+2)

LD-98: Garden Grove, Stanton

Demographics: 33% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 30% White

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-99: Santa Ana

Demographics: 78% Hispanic, 11% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

LD-100: Cypress, Buena Park, Fullerton

Demographics: 45% White, 31% Hispanic, 19% Asian

2008 President: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-101: Placentia, Yorba Linda, Brea

Demographics: 63% White, 20% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-102: Orange, Tustin

Demographics: 55% White, 25% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-109: Rancho Santa Margarita, Laguna Niguel

Demographics: 74% White, 13% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

LD-110: San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, San Clemente, Camp Pendleton, Oceanside

Demographics: 63% White, 26% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

San Diego

LD-111: Vista, Carlsbad

Demographics: 63% White, 24% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-112: Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar

Demographics: 71% White, 13% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-113: San Diego (purple)

Demographics: 64% White, 19% Asian, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-114: San Diego (red), Lemon Grove

Demographics: 54% Whtie, 21% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-115: San Diego (gold)

Demographics: 49% White, 32% Hispanic, 10% Black, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

LD-116: Coronado, Imperial Beach, San Diego (teal)

Demographics: 41% Hispanic, 23% White, 17% Asian, 15% Black

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 36% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-117: National City, Chula Vista

Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 27% White, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-118: Santee, Poway

Demographics: 65% White, 26% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 42% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-119: El Cajon, La Mesa

Demographics: 71% White, 17% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)